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Russian macro: thriftier economic growth amid currency “detoxication”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2023

The Russian economy continues to adapt to the new environment, and this adaptation will help it grow this year – possibly at 2.5%, with some potential upside. Although this year’s growth outlook doesn’t look impressive after last year’s GDP contraction by 2.1%, it seems more or less comparable wi...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco’s $10bn performance dividend, China joins Ukraine talks in Jeddah, Dubai GDP up 2.8% in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched $88 on signs of a 2m b/d supply gap in Q3. * A US-Iranian prisoner exchange deal mediated by Qatar seems to be moving forward. * Aramco brought forward its $10bn quarterly performance dividend, which could bal...

Lula will announce the new PAC in Rio de Janeiro, the new fiscal framework should be put to a vote next week, and Braga should present his work schedule on Tax Reform at the Constitution and Justice Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2023

Today, President Lula (PT) announces the new Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) in Rio de Janeiro. The funds are expected to total R$ 240 billion throughout Lula's term. On Monday, the rapporteur for the new fiscal framework in the House, Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), and party leaders will meet ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has disinflation run its course?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Aug 2023

While inflation in the Caucasus and Central is still heading lower, we investigate the factors that may change the current direction of price growth. While there are forces that would drive inflation in diverging directions, we see those that are keeping price growth in check prevailing in the m...

What does the stepwise devaluation of the Uzbekistani sum tell us about CCA currencies?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2023 · 1 response

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan marked a fixing for the sum against the US$ for today, Aug 11th, at about 3.5 percent weaker than yesterday. This is virtually equal to the depreciation that the sum has seen against the US$ from Jan until Aug 10th. In a press release, the central bank argued that t...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

Jul 28 Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development: Kazakhstan and Qatar have agreed to double the number of flights between the two countries. Prime minister: The potential capacity of a gas processing plant in Kashagan (to be built in the area) has been increased from 2 to 4 bcm/year Sa...

Poland sends 10,000 troops to Belarus Border on 3rd anniversary of disputed election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

Poland is one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine. Poland is worried that Belarus will stage a false flag incident and blame Poland for it. They are worried that Wagner fighters will cross the border posing as refugees. Poland is also anxious because Belarus might send illegal immigrants from th...

Lira said Tax Reform should focus on consumption, the PP and Republicanos helped the PT in the CPI on the MST, and Campos Neto will speak in the Senate on the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2023

Lira defended focusing on consumption in the Tax Reform proposal and said, “We cannot attack the problem from ten angles at the same time,” referencing income taxation. He also said he was still optimistic about the enactment of Tax Reform later this year to be able to vote on the complementary l...

Expanding defense exports reduces the trade deficit
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

Industrial exports continue to expand, especially defense exports. Although “defense” is not an export category, we can see the increase in exports of “transport equipment”, “metal products” and “electronic and optical products”, mostly associated with military equipment. Total industrial exports...

Q2 GDP slows to 4.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

We had expected economic growth to decelerate after Q1’s relatively robust 6.4% yoy expansion but the marked slowdown to 4.3%, reflecting a 0.9% seasonally-adjusted qoq contraction, is a surprise. Production numbers, from which GDP is estimated, showed lower growth rates in the three major sector...

Ukraine getting more tanks as Russia reactivates old models
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

On August 7 a Belgian businessman confirmed an EU country bought 49 old Leopard tanks from him as a gift to Ukraine. He will not say which country it is. Most of the tanks will be reanimated and the rest used for spare parts. It will take up to 6 months for the tanks to be operational. On August ...

FX passthrough on inflation accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

The BoI Inflation Report for the 1st half of the year analyzes the inflationary trends and monetary policy for this period. The Report estimates that the judicial overhaul (domestic factors) contributed an additional 10% depreciation of the shekel. The BoI estimates that the FX passthrough on inf...

Fernando Villavicencio has been murdered
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

Fernando Villavicencio, was a presidential candidate until today at 6 pm.  He was murdered with three bullets to his head perpetrated  by a hit person during a political meeting that was being held at an academic institution. He was the former head of the fiscalization committee in the Assembly a...

Monthly current account surplus continues to narrow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

The CBR published an estimate of some parameters of the 7M23 balance of payments. The current account surplus accounted for $1.8bn and $25.2bn in July and 7M23, implying that its monthly value continued to narrow. In 1Q23 and 2Q23, the current surplus accounted for $14.8 bn and $8.6 bn. The trade...

The new fiscal framework will not be put to a vote this week, the Economic Development Committee of the House discusses payroll tax exemptions, and the Joint Committee on the minimum wage approved the text’s report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2023

As expected, the fiscal framework will not be put to a vote this week. But it should be scheduled for next week. The rapporteur, Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), said there will be a meeting with government technicians to discuss the text on Monday, August 14. Haddad will also have a meeting at 5 pm with ...

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