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Qatar hosts US-Iran talks to try and break the nuclear deadlock
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The US and Iranian nuclear negotiators are arriving in Doha shortly for their first (indirect) talks since the JCPOA discussions in Vienna went on an extended pause in March. There have been rumors that Iran might be willing to postpone a removal of the IRGC's terrorism designation, the main outs...

Bolsonaro Version 2.2 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The focus in the Senate will be the vote on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Fuels, with the expansion of social benefits (Auxílio Brasil, a gas voucher and truck drivers' voucher). Caio Paes de Andrade may assume the presidency of Petrobras. The Futura/Banco Modal poll on the presi...

Politics: High-profile killings spotlight Mexico’s worsening public security crisis
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The country’s public security crisis is showing no signs of abating. The figures are alarming indeed, at around 3,000 murders, 1,500 missing persons and 80 femicides per month. Through the 41 months of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, the number of intentional homicides rea...

Preparing for Mexico?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jun 2022

Nicolás Maduro has made use of the pause in the Mexico talks to strengthen his international legitimacy by signaling his regime's adherence to the Russian sphere and welcoming authorizations granted by the U.S. government to Chevron and to ENI–Repsol. Chevron may now start talks with sanctioned V...

Senator Bezerra will submit his report on the PEC on Fuels today, Senator Rodrigues may submit his request for a CPI on the Ministry of Education on Tuesday, and this is the last week of activity in the Judiciary
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The PEC will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment for ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. The government is hoping to complete...

Markets remain unfazed by early elections
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jun 2022

* Markets appear unfazed by early elections; fiscal credibility is expected to be maintained. * Residential completions remain weak; low housing inventory supports further pressure on housing rental prices. * Economic indicators point to fairly stable growth and a tight labor market, sup...

Forint weakness would justify raising the monthly base rate hike back to 100 bps tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2022

Just five days ago, we said in our monthly report that we expect the MNB to defend the EURHUF 400 line for a few weeks at least, to keep the pretty much unavoidable depreciation of the forint under control, with a view to moderating its pace. We also said we did not expect any increase in the pac...

Westerners questioned at length in Russian airports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

Since the Ukraine War began Russian authorities have become ever more inquisitive about the citizens of NATO and EU countries arriving in Russia. At airports these citizens of ''unfriendly states'' will have their phones confiscated and presumably searched. The people are questioned for several h...

Four countries ban imports of Russian gold
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

On June 25 Japan, Canada, the USA and UK made the decision. The UK said the aim is to stop Russian oligarchs from buying gold to get around sanctions. London is the centre of the world's gold trade. Six Russian gold refineries were suspended by the London Bullion Market in March 2002.  Gold expor...

Markets remain unfazalled by early elections
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

Politics: Israel is headed towards elections in the fall. This is unfortunate with the major downside on reform implementation, but fiscal credibility expected to be maintained. Markets appear unphased by further political instability. Economic indicators continue to point to fairly steady growth...

Radical uncertainty is the only certainty
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jun 2022 · 1 response

At the end of a week of hectic diplomatic visits and contacts, the Erdogan regime has little to show for. Ankara is certain to block NATO enlargement, while for reasons that are hard to fathom for us, the Syrian military campaign appears to have been put on hold. At home, even AKP backbenchers...

The 4th month of the war: working hard on degrading Russian military ability
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

 Russians intensified missile attacks over the recent days. Near 40-50 missile strikes reported yesterday and 12 missiles attacks today in the morning. At least four hit the central area of Kyiv city with apartment blocks seriously damaged. More missile strikes – is a clear sign that something go...

Russia sending nukes to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

On June 25 announced that he will deploy missiles in Belarus that can carry nuclear missiles. He said this while meeting Lukashenko. The missiles will be Iskander M tactical missile systems. These can use ballistic or nuclear missiles. The missiles will be sent in the next few months. The deploym...

Zondo Commission's final report offers predictable but painful verdict on the ANC and its leadership
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Nearly four years of unprecedented and rare public judicial inquiry into the ANC's governance of the country came to an end this week. At long last, and after two postponements, Chief Justice Zondo submitted the final segment of his nearly 5500 pages of investigations into what is now referred to...

Russian macro: Russia is detached
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2022

The Russian ruble has demonstrated a trajectory of extraordinary shape in recent months. With this in mind, a few questions arise, and one of them is about the long-term implications that the ruble’s very unusual trajectory might cause for the Russian economy. Some other factors that accompanied ...

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