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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Virtual presidential nominees face multiple challenges as Morena nomination process hits a major speed bump
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2023

The unity pact that all the 4T presidential hopefuls signed on to at the outset of the Morena candidate selection process didn’t survive the irregularities that Marcelo Ebrard called out. It is not yet clear what the former foreign affairs minister’s next move will be, but he has done nothing to ...

Armenia: Central Bank makes a bolder move, cuts refinancing rate by 50bpts to 9.75 percent
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

This week is big for monetary policy in the CCA region. Three central banks hold meetings this week, starting today with Armenia and moving on Sep 13th to Georgia and Sep 13th to Uzbekistan. These decisions will be the focus of CCA Weekly on Friday, Sep 15th, but here we only share our initial ta...

The collection agenda faces skepticism and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2023

The new ministers announced by the government (Ports and Airports; Sports; and Micro and Small Businesses) may take office. In the Senate, the payroll tax exemption bill may be put to a vote. In the House, the proposal for a mini-electoral reform may be put to a vote. This week's Talking Point...

Fiscal Expansion and Its Consequences on Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Sep 2023

With the approval of the fiscal framework, the government will guarantee an increase in spending in real terms of 2.5% in 2024, and in an interval between 0.6% and 2.5% in 2025 and 2026. At the same time, primary result targets have been established of zero in 2024 and surpluses of 0.5% and 1.0% ...

Kazakhstan macro government outlook: strong economic growth amid a favorable external environment and real tenge appreciation in 2024-2028
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Sep 2023

The Kazakh government recently released its medium-term economic forecast and budgetary plan for 2024-2028. The government also confirmed that it has turned much more optimistic about economic growth this year than earlier. It now expects GDP to grow by 4.6%-4.7% this year and 5.3% next year, fol...

Mayor of Moscow re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2023

On September 11 the results were declared. It was no surprise, and Sergei Sobyanin won 76% of the vote—carrying every Moscow district. He vowed to continue to upgrade the city. He defeated four candidates all of whom are pro-Putin. Sobyanin is a long time Putin confrere. He is a member of United ...

Lula finalized the changes to the ministerial team last week, the payroll tax exemption bill returned to the Senate, and the Ministry of Finance has called for vetoes of parts of the bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2023

The government finally announced changes to its ministerial team last week. Deputy Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos-PE) will take over the Ports and Airports Ministry, replacing Márcio França (PSB-PE), who will go to the Ministry of Micro and Small Business. Deputy André Fufuca will replace Ana M...

A weakening shekel increases the likelihood of another rate hike
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Sep 2023

1. The fiscal deficit continues to drift higher on rapid expenditure growth and weak revenues. 2. Business sector sentiment reflects steady growth, with some improvement in the high-tech sector. 3. Recent shekel depreciation will contribute to inflation, increasing the likelihood of another...

Optics vs reality, redux
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2023

The politics author steps away from the topical stuff in this round, trying instead to find answers to the question of how far and long President Erdogan can be trusted to pursue orthodoxy. His answers are speculative and tentative, but he proposes 4 scenarios ranging from best to worst. For thos...

A weakening shekel increases the likelihood of another rate hike
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Sep 2023

Business sector optimism remains steady The August Business Tendency Survey points to steady growth (actually accelerating in August) and steady expectations for further growth. The high-tech sector is also reporting expected expansion in exports and employment next month, apparently on the back ...

Russia withdraws troops from Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Sep 2023

On September 7 it was reported that Russia has pulled its regional task force from Belarus. Ukrainian border authorities have confirmed this as have Belarusian oppositionists. They were deployed to Belarus in 2022 when Lukashenko said that Ukraine was plotting to invade. Ukraine said that a few R...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi oil cuts extended, UAE legalizes gambling, Qatar's population rebounds, Kuwait appoints finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Sep 2023 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent hits $90 after Saudi Arabia extended its additional cuts by three months. * Saudi GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in Q2 on oil cuts, although the non-oil private sector accelerated to 5.8%. * The IMF’s Saudi Arabia Articl...

Lula finalized the changes to his ministerial team, TCU auditors will meet to discuss Justice Toffoli’s decision on evidence from Operation Car Wash, and the Senate should vote on the payroll tax exemptions bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2023

After weeks of negotiations, the government finally announced changes to its ministerial team. Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos-PE) will take over the Ports and Airports Ministry, replacing Márcio França (PSB-PE), who will be appointed to the Ministry of Small and Microenterprises. André Fufuca w...

Monetary policy update: A return to caution
CHILE · Report · 08 Sep 2023

The September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) returns to the cautious tone that prevailed prior to July’s Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM). The June CPI led to accelerating cuts, but now the July CPI and the recent depreciation of the exchange rate have caused increased caution, and a slowdown in the ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Activity in CCA is still strong, but signs of a more pronounced slowdown emerge in 3Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Sep 2023

As summer draws to an end, we take a snapshot of economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia and update the country “cheat sheets” that we introduced in our initiation report in May. We focus on the key issues of growth, monetary and fiscal policy, external position, and political/geopolit...

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