GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The races in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir turned largely static during the week, while new poll data from Anatolia was full of surprises. The politics author is confident in calling Ankara and Izmir for CHP incumbents, while Imamoglu stands a good chance to edge out AKP’s Kurum in Istanbul. Yet,...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco hiked dividends, Saudi Q4 GDP, UAE Q4 fiscal, Dubai PMI surges

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA’s latest forecast sees the market in deficit this year. * US criticism of Israel intensified as Ramadan began without a ceasefire and with growing famine concerns. * Hamas reduced its demands, t...

100 Days to Celebrate

ECUADOR · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Daniel Noboa can celebrate his first 100 days in office with an 80% acceptance of his mandate—the highest level of popularity enjoyed by an Ecuadorian president. He moved fast on the right track to partially contain the dangerous insecurity and violence situation of last January and to...

Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, three bills submitted by the government should be put to a vote next week, and the STF is expected to analyze the case of the lifetime review of the INSS

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, March 18. The meeting was motivated by the drop in popularity recorded by opinion polls published a few days ago (Atlas, Genial/ Quaest, and IPEC). Next week, starting on March 19, four bills that have an urgent status in t...

Inflation continues to moderate, rate cut in April far from certain

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2024

Inflation continues to moderate, but the devil is in the details Inflation in February (0.4% m/m, 2.5% y/y down from 2.6% in January) was in line with expectations (or a bit at the high end, we were expecting 0.3%). Core inflation (headline excluding energy and fresh produce) moderated to 2.2% y/...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging impulses in monetary policies across CCA

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Mar 2024

This week brought three rate decisions in the CCA, including Armenia, Georgia and Uzbekistan. They demonstrate that, while the broader easing momentum in the region continues, policymakers take a different view on how underlying macroeconomic conditions affect the path for policy rates. Indeed...

Moldova has met most conditions for EU membership

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

On March 12 the EU Commission privately published a report saying that Moldova has met 11 of the 12 conditions for accession talks. The report was leaked to the media. The last remaining condition is to examine the background of judges properly and appoint a new Prosecutor General. There have bee...

February CPI and monetary policy implications

CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...

Lula's challenges and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

The government may submit a new bill to Congress on the Perse program and payroll tax relief for municipalities. The STJ should adjudicate the inclusion of energy tariffs in the calculation of the ICMS. Mauro Vieira talks about the government's foreign policy. This week's Talking Points: ...

Polls reflect drop in government’s approval ratings, the House continues to elect presidencies of the permanent committees, and the STJ may adjudicate the case on the calculation of the ICMS tax

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

Last week, polls from three institutes (IPEC, Atlas, and Quaest/Genial) showed a drop in the government's ratings and raised concerns, especially due to the upcoming municipal elections. With this, President Lula is expected to hold a ministerial meeting next Monday, March 18. Also this week, the...

It's crunch time, again

TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...

Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates further in 2023 while tourism continues to recover

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account widened markedly, from R34.4 billion in the third quarter to R165.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus widened to a deficit of 2.3% in the f...

The House elected presidents of the permanent committees, Haddad meets with governors to discuss the Fiscal Recovery Regime, and the government’s approval rating drops

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the House began the election process for the permanent committees of the House. The presidents of 19 of the 30 committees were elected. Deputy Caroline de Toni (PL-SC) was elected president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, met w...