Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, the base rate may be increased later this year

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As opposed to Russia, where inflation decelerated fast (in May, it fell to 0.12% m-o-m and for several weeks, the w-o-w inflation remained at around zero), inflation in Kazakhstan was at 1.7% m-o-m in May. It was only slightly lower than the m-o-m inflation in April (2.0%). By the end of May, the...

The House approved the bill preventing the ICMS from being levied on additional electricity fees, the rapporteur of the ICMS ceiling on essential services changed compensation mechanisms in the text, and Pres. Bolsonaro should meet with Pres. Biden today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2022

The ICMS proposal will be sent to the Senate. Estimates show that the measure could result in R$ 2.88 billion in annual savings for consumers if generation conditions in the coming years are similar to those observed since 2015. The rapporteur of the ICMS ceiling bill, Senator Fernando Bezerra, m...

Russia appoints officials in Donetsk

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

On June 9 bureaucrats took office in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). DPR is recognized by Russia but not the rest of the world, which views it as part of Ukraine. Until now DPR has been run by people who are from it. There were hints in February 2022 that recognizing the DPR was only a step ...

Russian macro: shocks and pressure

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2022

The initial shock associated with Russia’s “special military operation” has evolved into a kind of permanent pressure on the Russian economy due to the restrictive measures imposed by Western governments and the voluntary exodus of many foreign companies that operated in the country. Even though ...

Still too close to call

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Russia considering annexing Kherson

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

On June 6 a Russian politician named Igor Kasyukevich said that the Kherson Region of Ukraine ought to be declared part of Russia. Kasyukevich said a referendum should be held first. Russia did this with the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Crimea was officially part of Russia until the 1950s. Kremlin ...

Consumer lending rates remained high in April and are unlikely to have dropped much in May

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

The CBR reported that the average weighted consumer lending rate didn’t change much in April, despite the fact that the regulator cut the key rate from 20% to 17% (effective from April 11). Monthly average lending rate for credits with maturity up to 1Y, were at 25.79%, while interest rates for l...

Congress continues to try to minimize the impact of inflation on consumers, two presidential polls were published today, and today is the last day for workers to reserve Eletrobras shares with funds from the FGTS

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2022

The House approved a bill that requires companies in the energy sector to send data regarding the composition of the prices of their products, such as the average cost of producing oil and natural gas, to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). Deputies also approved the...

Steady growth will support further aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

Business confidence going forward remains strong. The component of expectations for stronger activity in the next three months improved to 10.05 points in May from 8.04 last month (net balance). Both industry and services are reporting expectations for growth in orders, both for exports and domes...

Inflation maintained its rapidly ascending trend in May

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

CPI-inflation was reported at 1.7% mom, 10.7% yoy for May this morning. This came after 9.5% yoy in April, and generally the trend of recent months has been a rapidly ascending one: CPI-inflation and core inflation Note: % yoy changes; Sources: KSH, own estimates The forint slightly weakened on t...

Positive GDP growth in Q1-2022 as South Africa’s economy shows resilience amid increased global headwinds

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jun 2022

Real quarterly GDP grew by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2022. This was following a contraction of 1.8% q/q and an expansion of 1.4% q/q during the third and fourth quarters of 2021, respectively. However, today’s GDP print points to the South African economy's reverting to pre-pandemic growth pat...

President Jair Bolsonaro announced a new measure to try to lower the price of fuel, and the government will eliminate the PIS, Cofins and Cide taxes on gasoline, alcohol and cooking gas

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2022

PLP 18 establishes electricity, fuel, telecommunications and transportation as essential services. That is, the ICMS rate cannot exceed 17%. The government will also eliminate the PIS, Cofins and Cide rates, which are federal taxes, on gasoline, alcohol and cooking gas. In order to transfer funds...

Petro and Hernández neck to neck

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Jun 2022

Methodology: The fan shows the extreme points of the data for each month. The line in the middle of each fan shows the median of the surveys for each month.Note: Since June 1, the polling firm GAD3 (contracted by RCN) reports the results of a daily telephone survey, with a sample of more than 1,0...

Inflation breached 5%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Jun 2022

As expected, the headline inflation rate climbed to 5.4% in May, up from 4.9% in April. Continuing increases in fuel and food were still the main drivers of the headline rate, with both contributing to a sharper increase in food and restaurant services. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices ...

Skirmishes on Tajik-Kyrgyz Border

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2022

On June 3 Kyrgyzstan announced that its border guards had fired into Tajikistan. The Kyrgyz said they had to return fire after the Tajiks opened fire on them unprovoked. Bishkek said troops were wounded on both sides. Tajikistan released no statement on the incident. There is a 970 km border betw...