GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Monetary Council held its last regular monthly rate-setting meeting today, this time also discussing the Q4 inflation report. The decision was a 75 bps cut of the base rate and the interest rate corridor alike, the same way as it happened in the previous two months: After the meeting, vice go...

Economics: Continuing strength in US and Mexico activity with controlled inflation bode well for 2024 despite hawkish monetary policy

MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2023

The economic outlook for year-end 2023 and 2024 remains mixed. Continuing progress in international economic activity has been encouraging, with US GDP growth driven by personal consumption in goods and services, an expansion that has defied the Fed’s hawkish stance since the beginning of 2022, a...

EU sanctions Russian diamonds

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2023

On December 18 the 12th sanctions package was approved. It had been delayed because of Austrian objections related to Ukraine's placing Raiffeisen Bank, which still operates in Russia, on its list of sponsors of war. The diamond ban relates to both synthetic and natural diamonds as well as those ...

Politics: Voter support for Xóchitl slips while that of Claudia and Morena may have run up against a hard ceiling

MEXICO · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This week we are releasing the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters on the general situation of the country and electoral preferences. It delivered results very similar to those of last September, but the numbers that departed from the results of three months ago may ...

Two battles in sight and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This is the final week of activity in the National Congress, which recesses on Friday, December 22. Before this, the votes must be completed on the MP for the ICMS subsidy, online betting, the LDO and the 2024 Federal Budget. Tax Reform will be enacted on Wednesday, and Lula will lead a ministeri...

Fiscal Stimuli, Monetary Accommodation and GDP Growth

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2023

The strong GDP growth in 2023, of 3.1%, is much more a consequence of actual GDP, spurred by aggregate demand, than by growth of potential GDP. No matter how attractive they are, the narratives about increased productivity have no empirical support. Contrary to government and household consumptio...

KUWAIT: The new Amir's choice of crown prince is critical for the country's future

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Dec 2023

* Sheikh Mishal, age 83, succeeded as Amir on Saturday, after the death of his brother Nawaf. * He is a conservative figure with a background in national security and has been effective ruler for two years. * His choice of crown prince will set the tone for Kuwait in a critical decade. * The c...

Moldova adopts pro-Western defense strategy

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

On December 15 the Parliament voted to make the change. Moldova has officially been neutral until now. The former Soviet republic still does not seek to join NATO. The Moldovan government aspires to join the EU. The Harvard-educated president is an outspoken advocate of Ukraine's cause, too. How...

November’s low CPI, surprising on the downside, supports monetary easing

ISRAEL · Report · 18 Dec 2023

1. November’s CPI came in below expectations as core inflation moderated significantly. 2. This renews expectations for a rate cut in January (in two weeks), assuming low shekel volatility. 3. The CA surplus and net FDI are expected to reach 5.5% GDP this year, but geopolitical/political u...

Polish blockade of Ukrainian trucks continues

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

The Polish blockades of Ukrainian trucks continues. Polish truckers have been blocking Ukrainian trucks from entering or leaving Poland since November 6. Ukraine needs to export and import goods via Poland. The Polish authorities have done very little to stop this illegal blockade. Polish trucker...

November’s low CPI supports monetary loosening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

Inflation surprises on the downside Headline inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% last month. Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month due to a sharp moderation in housing rental (OER) prices to 3.6% y/y from 4.9%. The breakou...

Correction: The little book of silver linings

TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2023

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just ...

Webinar replay - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration

ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda.

Lula’s veto of the payroll tax relief was overturned, the ICMS MP should be approved by the end of next week, and next week is the final week of activity before Congress recesses

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2023

President Lula's veto of the bill dealing with payroll tax relief was overturned. The votes, both in the House and the Senate, were significant. After intense negotiations, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), postponed the analysis of ICMS subsidies provisional measure (MP 1185/23) a...