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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Wage pressure continues; full employment reached
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jun 2022

1. Wages continue to push higher due to a tight labor market, especially in the business sector. 2. Israeli institutions were net sellers of FX in April, following strong purchases in Q122. 3. We are revising our inflation forecast upwards for June, following a 9% spike in petrol prices.

Wage pressure continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jun 2022

Wage pressure continues in the business sector • Total wages increased by 1.5% m/m in March (sa). • Business (private) sector wages are expanding by a fairly rapid annual pace of 6.5%. • The Bank of Israel has acknowledged that business sector wages are expanding by a somewhat more rapid pace tha...

Between facts and fiction
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2022

President Erdogan lost the small amount of good will in the West generated by his principled Ukraine policy. The upcoming Syrian operation could turn doubt, into anti-Erdoganism. We have been arguing that it is not election time yet, but Erdogan has apparently rolled up his sleeves to do some ...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden confirms talk of Saudi visit, OPEC+ increases taper, Yemen ceasefire extended, S&P positive on RAK
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ boosted its taper by 50% for July and August, but in a rather peculiar way, and Brent is touching $120. * Despite the oil windfall, Saudi government and FX reserves both declined in April. * There is talk of buildin...

The NBU hikes prime rate up to 25% amid aggravating economic problems
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Jun 2022

The NBU Board decided to hike prime rate by 15 ppt up to 25%. The decision had a kind of shocking impression on everyone. We still have scarce information on what is happening with the economy (no reports on industrial output, retail trade, agro-production, customs statistics) and this hike was a...

The possibility of declaring a state of emergency to contain fuel prices is being discussed, the Senate approved a bill that allows the Aneel to lower electricity bills, and President Bolsonaro will travel to the U.S. next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro met with ministers to discuss a possible state of emergency to contain the increasing fuel prices in an election year. Some in the government defend the measure, but it has no support among the economic team. It is important to note that for a state of emergency to be dec...

Better than expected, but bad enough
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2022

Consumer prices rose by 3%, m/m, in May, notably lower than the market consensus of around 4.5% (and our even slightly higher forecast), but the 12-month rate nevertheless edged up further to 73.5%, from 70% in April. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation remained hugely elevated at 8.8%, with the 12-mo...

Russia ends nuclear cooperation with Norway
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2022

On June 2 the Russian nuclear agency (Rosatom) said it will no longer work with Norway. Norway and Russia have been cooperating since 1993. Norway paid EUR 2 billion to Russia to help Norway secure nuclear dumps and upgrade safety at icebreaker factories and power plants. Norway ended financing f...

Russian political/pandemic update: coronavirus retreats, politicians advance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2022

A hundred days ago, on February 24, Russian troops entered Ukraine, and this day became a historical milestone that marked the beginning of a rapid rupture of economic, political, and cultural ties between Russia and the West. Since then, the EU has announced six packages of sanctions against Rus...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2022

As the oil prices remain high (be it Brent or Urals which differ from each other by around $35/bbl) while Russia’s imports have seemingly collapsed on the back of western restrictive sanctions and shrinking domestic demand, the ruble strengthened and fluctuated around R/$60, which is a too strong...

Russia mulls new court
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2022

On June 1 the head of the Association of Russian Lawyers said that Russia is coming up with an alternative to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). ECHR was set up by the Council of Europe in 1950. Russia was expelled from the Council of Europe due to the invasion of Ukraine. Russia wants to...

Sterilisation rate hike as promised, and an unexpected new conflict with the EU
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jun 2022

Today's 30 bps sterilization rate hike, to 6.75%, was announced by the MNB already two days ago, and it was of the same size as the monthly increase following the previous rate-setting meeting one month earlier. So the immediate market impact was understandably small: the forint has strengthened ...

The PSDB postpones its decision on Senator Tebet’s candidacy, oil workers threaten to strike if the government sends a bill to privatize Petrobras, and Minister Mendonça holds a conciliation hearing on collection of the single-phase ICMS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2022

The PSDB should decide next Thursday, June 9, whether it will support Senator Simone Tebet’s presidential candidacy. Regional alliances are holding back these negotiations. And, once again, the party is considering launching its own candidacy. Today, oil workers are mobilizing across the country ...

Pandemic statistics update - June 2, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue remains substantially below year-ago levels, although the variability over the past several weeks shows the confused situation of the Covid control measures. Traffic data for Shanghai and Beijing is inconsistent.

Economy contracts in April m-o-m, albeit unevenly by sectors and not as much as was expected earlier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jun 2022

Rosstat reported that Russian industrial output contracted in April by 1.6% y-o-y, while it was still up by 3.9% y-o-y in 4M22. The mining sector was down in April by 1.6% y-o-y as well, and it was up by 5.9% in 4M22. The same figures for manufacturing are minus 2.1% for April and plus 3.2% for 4...

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