GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Q1 2024 ends with some signs that the Dominican economy is on its way to achieving trend values for key economic variables, such as growth and inflation. In January-February the average interannual growth of economic activity was 5.4%, close to potential growth, and inflation in Q1 was 3.33% y/y,...

Floods threaten Russian cities

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2024

Flooding has gotten worse in Russia and Kazakhstan in mid April. An unusually early and warm spring caused snow and ice to melt abruptly. The premature and sudden thaw means that rivers have burst their banks. Heavy rains have aggravated the situation. The Ishim River, which flows from Kazakhstan...

Boluarte government weakened further; economic recovery takes off in Q1 2024; BCRP’s 25bp cut surprises markets

PERU · Report · 16 Apr 2024

In this report we discuss recent political developments, with a focus on President Dina Boluarte; using high-frequency economic reports, we present our updated forecast, and argue that the economy rebounded in Q1 2024; and discuss the BCRP Board’s decision to cut rates by 25bp, surprising both ma...

Economics: US industry’s stalling trend and the super peso continue to undercut Mexico's manufacturing

MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2024

Last week’s industrial activity report for February confirmed a continuation of its slowing trend. The construction sector remained almost the only source of growth but its pace slowed to a rate well below the average of the previous nine months. US industrial production’s stalling trend dati...

Difficulties in the legislature and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2024

The government submits the Budget Guidelines Bill and proposals for regulating Tax Reform to Congress. Negotiations continue around payroll tax relief for companies and municipalities, in addition to Perse (the events sector program). Rodrigo Pacheco meets with governors to discuss state debt. ...

Uzbekistan represses Islamists

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2024

In April 2024 the Uzbek government responded to the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attacks in Moscow by ramping up police action against those suspected of religious extremism and terrorism. The police have searched the residences of suspects. The public have been told not to put their children into...

Tax collections and weak demand held March inflation steady

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2024

Inflation held steady at 1.2 percent in March. While, starting in the third week of March, bolivar depreciation against the dollar and a transportation fare hike pushed up on inflation, and monetary expansion caused by domestic public outlays expanded by 21 percent compared with 9 percent in Febr...

Inflation in March slightly above expectations, but core remains low

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Apr 2024

Inflation in March slightly above expectations Inflation in March (0.6% m/m 2.7% y/y, following 2.5% last month) was slightly above expectations of 0.5% on average. Core inflation inched up to 2.3% y/y from 2.2% last month but this is due to higher taxation on cigarettes contributing 0.1% to the ...

What could happen if GL 44 expires on April 18?

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2024

The possible expiration of General License 44 (GL 44) generates uncertainty. Venezuela's oil production and exports have been increasing since 2022 under licenses 41 and 44 . Both allow selling oil in Venezuela's natural markets (the US and Europe) at better prices, with more efficient collectio...

Politics: In a context of lackluster campaigns, the first presidential debate probably only had a marginal impact

MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2024

With Xóchitl Gálvez trailing by 17 points and only 8% of registered voters still undecided according to the latest El Financiero poll, and less than six weeks left to the campaign, time is running out for the main opposition presidential candidate to begin making significant inroads with undecide...

Markets shrug off escalation

ISRAEL · Report · 15 Apr 2024

1. So far, markets appeared unfazed by the recent Iranian strike on Israel, including the equity, bond and FX markets. 2. The BoI kept rates unchanged at its most recent meeting due to current elevated geopolitical risks, but expects easing in the coming year. 3. The economy has recovered...

Ban on Russian metals by the US and UK

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2024

On April 12 the announcement was made as part of the drive to reduce revenue that funds the Russian war effort. The metals targeted are nickel, copper and aluminum. The sanctions also reduce the use of these metals in the world metal exchanges and in derivatives trading. The Chicago Mercantile Ex...

Reserves up, politics sideways

TURKEY · Report · 14 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The politics author analyses the reasons for AKP’s stunning defeat, concluding that while President Erdogan’s mistakes did play a role in the defeat, by no means were they the primary factor. It is very difficult to fix these mistakes anyway. Voters who migrated from AKP to ultra-Islamist New Wel...

The limited Iranian strikes at Israel were as expected, the next steps are more uncertain

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 14 Apr 2024 · 1 response

Last night, April 13, Iran launched around 300 drones and missiles toward Israel. These are significant as the first attacks from Iranian territory (and possibly by Iranian forces directly) in nearly a half-century of enmity. Until now, Iran has merely provided support to allies across the region...

China’s sugar high

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Apr 2024

Recent data from China’s economy has indicated a turnaround, mostly in the industrial sector including autos, but also in some high technology products. However, the improvements have been fueled by a sharp increase in industrial loans even as monetary policy overall remains sluggish. Further gro...