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Jan 25 Oil transit: Belarus has raised tariffs for oil transit from Kazakhstan to Europe by 38%, from Russia - by 10.2% National Railways: Freight transportation by rail between Kazakhstan and China increased by 22% in 2023 to 28 mln tons Government: Kazakhstan plans to double production of agric...

Azerbaijan re-elects president

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

On February 7 Azerbaijan's exit polls said that Ilham Aliyev is winning 94% of the vote. The polls have not yet closed. This comes as no surprise. He has ruled since his late father handed the role over to him in 2003. Every election Aliyev has won has failed to meet international standards of in...

Federal budget revenue collection looks decent in January 2024 as the economy expands - GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R675 bn in January. It was 58.7% higher than a year ago. The non-O&G revenues accounted for R1.721 trln (up by 84.8% y-o-y). As a result, total revenues grew by 76.6% y-o-y. Even though January 2023 is not a good base for co...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q23 as the tenge got excessively strong

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The National Bank of Kazakhstan published its first estimate of the 2023 balance of payments, and it became clear that in 4Q23, the current account deficit widened to $3.3 bn from $1.6 bn in 3Q23. In 2Q23, the deficit was even wider ($3.4 bn). However, in 1Q23, it was again moderate ($1.6 bn). Ap...

A solution to the payroll tax exemption issue may be found this week, the president of the Parliamentary Agribusiness Front criticized the government, and Haddad is expected to maintain the zero-deficit target

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2024

According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and the government leader in the Senate, Randolfe Rodrigues, a solution will be found to the payroll tax exemption issue by the end of the week. But Haddad believes everything will depend on President Lula's approval. The president of the Par...

Government’s setback in Congress, Omnibus law returns to commissions

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

In yesterday's Congress session, the government withdrew the Omnibus law from the debate in the Lower House and sent it back to the respective commissions for further discussions. This represents an important congressional setback, considering that the Omnibus law had already been trimmed, in pri...

EU foreign affairs high representative in Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

On February 6 Josep Borrell paid his 4th visit since the war began. He said he was there to reaffirm the EU's commitment to Ukraine. All these declaration of absolute solidarity seem suspicious. If the EU is so obviously committed why is it impelled to repeat that mantra constantly? In March 2024...

Economic activity continues to recover

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

The CBS Business Survey for January points further recovery in economic activity. The net balance for current activity improved to +12 points from 7.4 points last month and -1.5 two months ago. Expectations for activity next month remained fairly weak at -1.75 (-2.13 last month) but employment ex...

Congress listed its priorities for the year, Lira stressed that the government needs to negotiate with Congress more, and Padilha will meet with Congress's leaders

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2024

Both Lira and Pacheco spoke about the need to regulate artificial intelligence. The regulation of Tax Reform was also mentioned. While Lira targeted his messages toward the Executive Office, Pacheco focused more on the Judiciary. Lira said that achievements such as the payroll tax exemption and P...

Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections

CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi slows oil expansion, IMF reveals stronger Oman surpluses, Kuwait budgets a big deficit, US soldiers killed in Jordan

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude eased back to $79, and OPEC+ delayed making a decision on Q2 output. * An Iraqi militia drone killed 3 US soldiers, the first during the Gaza war, with retaliation expected. * Qatar participated in Gaza ceasef...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2024

CIS POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2024

* Russia and Ukraine are bombarding cities with increasing ferocity. * Russia's presidential election looms in March, but no change is expected. * Ukraine’s ammunition and recruitment situations are becoming critical. * The Kazakh oil workers’ strike continued for a month but is still sma...

Hungarian veto on the EU's €50bn aid package to Ukraine has been withdrawn with unexpected ease today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

Quite unexpectedly, but very positively from investors' point of view, today's extraordinary EU summit ended with a deal accepted by all member states, that means also by Hungary, in just a few hours after its start. Effectively, member states approved the original December proposal to provide Uk...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

The FX market has not been not too active in recent weeks. The government keeps discussing an extension of the mandatory sale of FX revenues for exporters (currently, this regime finishes at the end of April), while the Central bank opposes the idea. From the fundamental point of view, current re...

EU passes EUR 50 billion aid package for Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

On February 1 all 27 EU member states agreed to the package. The row over this has lasted for 6 weeks. Hungary had vetoed the package until now. The President of the European Council hailed the news. There had been talk of stripping Hungary of its voting rights if Hungary did not agree. Hungary h...