Conditions support steady aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.8%, at the high end of consensus • We expect higher prices in food, apparel, travel abroad and housing. • Inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.4% y/y in May from 4.0% in April. • Inflation y/y is expected to continue to move higher towards 5% in coming months, s...

No country for rabbits

TURKEY · Report · 12 Jun 2022

President Erdogan announced his intention to run again, thus officially starting the presidential race. While the announcement was a statement of the obvious, it triggers several tremors, as well as revealing the strategies of the opposing camps. Spoiler alert: The announcement has no bearing on ...

The next-to-last one before poll silence

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2022

Trends persist

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

South Africa records its seventh consecutive current account surplus during Q1-2022

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2022, South Africa’s current account recorded its eighth surplus since the first quarter of 2020 (with a deficit having been recorded only during Q2 2020). The Q1-2022 surplus, widen...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi posts strong GDP, Jebel Ali stake sold, Coronavirus cases tick up

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is close to its post-invasion high, and the UAE energy minister says it is nowhere near the peak. * One driver is an IAEA resolution criticizing Iran, which responded by reducing nuclear site monitoring. * Coronavirus...

Webinar Replay: Venezuela – Sanctions: What's next?

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

Get insight into how changes to sanctions may reshape Venezuela's macro outlook and the future of Venezuelan oil. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy discussing sanctions, the Chevron license, and what's ahead for Venezuela.

The PSDB announced support for the candidacy of Sen. Simone Tebet, the Senate may vote on bills related to the ICMS tax, and the Joint Budget Committee may vote on the preliminary report on the draft Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) for 2023

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2022

Senator Tasso Jereissati is the favorite to run as vice president on the Senator Tebet’s ticket. Achieving unity in the bloc will be difficult, and the confirmation of the ticket during the convention period will be another battle, especially if Simone's intended votes remain low. In addition to ...

Kazakh Constitution to be amended

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2022

On June 6 it was announced that a referendum approved a package of reforms to the constitution. 77% of votes were for the changes. There was a reported turnout of 68%. Experts suggest the high turnout may not be credible. The referendum was on over 50 amendments to the constitution – a large numb...

CBR cuts the key rate by 150 bps, more cuts expected

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

The CBR cut the key rate by 150 bps to 9.5% amid rapid disinflation and an abnormally strong ruble. The latter factor also encouraged the government to cancel obligatory FX sales by exporters introduced after Russia announced its “special military operation” in Ukraine. The regulator now expects ...

Pandemic statistics update - June 10, 2022

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue is showing quite steady gains beginning in June. This confirms news reports that suggest the lockdowns are easing, either due to local pressure or because there has been containment of Covid in places such as Shanghai. Both Shanghai and Beijing have shown sharp chang...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

May 31 Government of Italy Kazakhstan exported 455.2 thousand tons of oil to Italy in March versus 268.4 thousand tons in February. Jun 1 North Caspian Operating Company Oil production at the Kashagan field has been suspended since June 1 due to scheduled repairs for approximately 45 days. Kashag...

The fiscal deficit continued to normalise in May

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

New central government cash data suggests the government is serious about its promise to fix the budget on rather short notice after the election. In May, the cash deficit was only 2.1% of GDP on annualised basis. As a result, the cumulative January-May deficit fell to 11.3% of GDP, from 13.7% in...

The current account and the trade surpluses narrow in May, albeit still remain wide

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As in the aftermath of geopolitical tensions and sanctions, the CBR stopped publishing detailed information on foreign trade regularly. It now provides monthly only a few numbers related to Russia’s current account and foreign trade balances. The regulator reported that in 5M22, the estimated cur...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, the base rate may be increased later this year

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As opposed to Russia, where inflation decelerated fast (in May, it fell to 0.12% m-o-m and for several weeks, the w-o-w inflation remained at around zero), inflation in Kazakhstan was at 1.7% m-o-m in May. It was only slightly lower than the m-o-m inflation in April (2.0%). By the end of May, the...