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The combination of the lack of a concrete solution to the issue of congressional funds and issues such as the payroll tax exemption, in addition to the fact that the House is still discussing internally which party will lead which permanent committee of the House, considerably reduces the level o...

As murky as possible

VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Recent events seem to be leading the country towards a variant of the 2018 scenario in which the government, in poor shape to win any elections—even low-quality ones—is bent on ensuring that the opposition won’t come together, the Unitary Platform will repudiate the elections, a multitude of non-...

Politics: Pro-Xóchitl civic groups are revitalized by the latest pro-democracy protest with the general election campaign start just days away

MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Hundreds of thousands of citizens took to the streets of Mexico City and well over a over a hundred other cities here and abroad on February 18 to protest against AMLO’s constitutional reform proposals designed to nullify Mexican democracy and keep the governing Morena party in power. It was the ...

An ambitious agenda and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024

The government may submit a new MP and bill on payroll tax relief to Congress. Arthur Lira discusses with party leaders the presidencies of the Permanent Committees of the House. In the STF, the highlight is the adjudication of the INSS lifetime review. The IBGE publishes the 2023 GDP this week. ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024

OVERVIEW Despite the Carnival holiday, the political tension has remained high in February, involving decisions by Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli; the crisis in the relations with Israel provoked by Lula; and the operation by the Federal Police to investigate the scope and responsibility f...

Analysts are divided on the rate-cutting prospects at tomorrow's Monetary Council

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2024

The stake for tomorrow's regular monthly rate-setting meeting is whether the Council opts for the standard 75 bps reduction of the currently 10% base rate, or it increases the speed slightly, to a 100 bps cut this time. Honestly, the difference is not that big from the point of view of long-term ...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth beat expectations last year but is likely to decelerate in 2024

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its preliminary GDP numbers on the production side for 2023. The end-use statistics will be published at a later date. It could well be the case that at some point the Bureau may somehow modify the quarterly GDP data as the annual figure i...

The risk of non-renewal increases

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the political climate heating up, the risk that General License 44 (GL 44) may not be renewed next April 18 is heightening. It’s premature to try to guess how the ongoing turmoil will play out. Things can change between now and April 18; license renewal can still be achieved. A scenario ...

CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 8.7% in 2023, Azerbaijan's growth finally accelerates in Jan, Georgia suffers large drop in Jan exports, Uzbekistan modernizes monetary transmission mechanism

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

We comment on the key recent macro events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: 2023 posts 8.7 percent GDP growth Armenia: 2023 foreign trade deficit widens Armenia: REER inches down in Dec, but still runs in overvaluation mode Armenia: CB publishes minutes from Jan 30th rates meeting ...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF to hike capital deployment, Alat’s first deals, Turkey-ADQ sukuk on hold, Qatar’s Gaza mediation resumes

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states addressed the ICJ hearing on Israel’s occupation (requested by the UNGA in 2022). * Hostage release talks mediated by Qatar/US/Egypt are resuming in Paris today. * Inflation in January was higher in Kuwait (3....

Lula met with party leaders of the House to improve their relationship, Lira should meet with party leaders next week to discuss the presidencies of the House committees, and the 2023 GDP result will be published next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2024

Yesterday, President Lula met with the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and representatives of 12 parties. The objective of the meeting was to improve dialogue between the Executive and Legislative branches. Next week, a meeting is scheduled between Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and party leade...

Lithuania restricts train travel to and from Russian exclave

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2024

On February 22 the announcement was made that trains going from Russia through Lithuania to the Russian exclave Kaliningrad will not be allowed to pick up or drop off passengers. The rule will take effect from March 1. Lithuania is also closing two border crossings with Belarus. It closed another...

Haddad will look into the Perse program, Lula will meet with party leaders of the House to improve their relationship, and Flavio Dino takes office as a justice of the STF

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said he will look closely into Perse, a program that funds the events sector. Fraud was identified in the program, whose expenses exceeded R$17 billion. This evening, President Lula will meet with the party leaders of the House and the president of the Ho...

Domestic politics suddenly come into motion

HUNGARY · Report · 21 Feb 2024

We have mostly good news on the energy situation. January, the outstanding peak of the heating season, was once again warmer than average, although not quite as warm as one year earlier. Domestic gas reserves are almost at their historic maximum for this time of the year, and European gas prices ...

Russia and Venezuela agree to enhance collaboration on hydrocarbons

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Feb 2024

On February 20 the foreign ministers of the two countries met in Caracas and made the agreement that included a statement about working together on civilian nuclear energy, farming and medicine. This is Sergei Lavrov's second visit to Venezuela since the Ukraine War began. The Russian Foreign Min...