GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

President Lula meets with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, to discuss reimbursing the payroll tax. The matter will be addressed through a bill with constitutional urgent status. Some civil servant groups are mobilizing for salary raises. The work-to-rule job action of federal agricultura...

Government leaders will meet to discuss the payroll tax exemption, party leaders will meet to discuss the parliamentary funds veto, and the STF has maintained the date of Bolsonaro’s deposition

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Yesterday, the government leader in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues, said that the payroll tax relief issue would be resolved by the end of this week. He said that a solution only depended on President Lula's approval. Party leaders who are part of the Joint Budget Committee will meet to dis...

Economics: Reform proposals will not pass in the current Congress but form the key piece of a longer-term political plan by AMLO

MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

As analyzed in last week's Political Outlook, on February 5 President López Obrador unveiled a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reform proposals, ostensibly with the intention of having them discussed and approved in Congress. But as there is no possibility of these initiatives being pa...

Post-election scenarios, a first take

TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness tren...

Dancing on the edge of an abyss

UKRAINE · Report · 16 Feb 2024

The last few months have been far from enjoyable. The anxious anticipation of decisions from the West regarding military supplies, coupled with persistent efforts by Russian friends to disrupt the process, paints a bleak picture. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Economic cycle to serve the new Georgian government well in the run-up to the Oct elections

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Feb 2024

As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...

The Signs of Economic Activity and Monetary Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2024

For inflation to converge to the target, it is necessary for economic activity to decelerate sufficiently for inflation expectations to equal the target. Although after the strong result observed in November (mainly due to Black Friday promotions), real retail sales cooled, our models indicate th...

Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown

MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024

Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...

The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...

Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets and reduces the probability of a rate cut in two weeks

ISRAEL · Report · 12 Feb 2024

1. Moody’s decision to place Israel on “negative outlook” (A2) resulted in higher bond yields and a weaker shekel. 2. January’s tax revenues surprised on the upside, resulting in a fiscal surplus. 3. Business sentiment continued to improve gradually in January as the economy recovers.

Disunity in the UniTeam

PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Feb 2024

The Marcos Jr.-Sara Duterte alliance seemed fragile from the very beginning, but the fragility of the alliance is now made more apparent in at least two major developments recently. The first is the ICC (International Criminal Court) investigation of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte. In this, both M...

Chinese bank stops settlements with Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024

On February 7 the news about Chouzhou Commercial Bank (CCB) was reported in the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti. CCB has been vital for Russia to pay for imports since 2022. CCB has reportedly informed clients that it will no longer facilitate payments. The CCB payments ended on SWIFT and Ch...

Tajikistan's CB lowers policy rate in a surprise move

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024

The Central Bank of Tajikistan lowered the policy rate by 50bpts to 9.50%. This is the first change since May last year when the policy rate was decreased by 100bpts to 11.0 percent. The accompanying statement (only in Tajik) consisted of a single paragraph arguing that the decision has been take...

Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets

ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024

Moody’s decision surprises markets The downgrade from A1 to A2 was largely expected by markets towards the end of last week. But the combination of a downgrade with a negative outlook was not expected (by the MoF as well). According to Moody’s, the negative outlook was due to the risk of escalati...

Not much new here

TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2024

With President Erdogan leading the way, parties are sending their heavyweights on whistlestop tours to gain the hearts of voters. Only AKP, in tandem with symbiotic MHP, and CHP have any chance in major municipalities, with available polls in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul granting CHP incumbents sma...