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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The current account strengthens in April causing an unpleasant appreciation of the ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

As the EU having imposed bans on exports to Russia, appears either quite slow or reluctant to get rid of energy imports from Russia, the latter's current account surplus widened in 4M22 to an unprecedented $95.8bn. In 1Q22, the current account surplus stood at $58.2 bn, implying that in April alo...

The third-way alliance may postpone the selection of its presidential candidate, the TCU will resume the judgment on the privatization of Eletrobras on Wednesday, and the income tax rapporteur may meet with Pacheco to discuss the proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2022

Quantitative and qualitative polls will be published on Wednesday, May 18, that will determine the selection of the presidential candidate of the third-way alliance. The group’s candidate was expected to be announced on May 18, but this could be postponed and announced at the end of the month ins...

New president of the republic inaugurated, made anti-Russia statements
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2022

On May 14, Katalin Novák, the first woman in Hungary's history to be the president of the public for five years was inaugurated, replacing János Áder, whose 5-year term had expired.It is quite rare in Hungary that anything about the president of the republic, who is elected by parliament and has ...

A solid pace of recovery in 2022 and 2023. The month of May will be an important one for local politics
PANAMA · Forecast · 16 May 2022

The economy will grow 6.4% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023. The main drivers will be investments and exports. The former, both private and public, are expected to lead growth due to a low comparison base. The latter, in particular tourism and air transportation, will grow at a solid pace. External condi...

Inflation accelerates, supportive of steady tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 16 May 2022

1. Inflation in April accelerated to 4% y/y, and core inflation by 3.4%, in line with expectations. 2. Inflation is increasingly broad based, a factor that will support monetary tightening. 3. Economic indicators point to steady growth and a tight labor market.

Russia nationalizes Renault factory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

On May 16 the Mayor of Moscow said the French car factory had been nationalized, and the Soviet-era car the Moskvitch will be brought back. This is the first significant transfer of a private asset to the state since the Ukraine War began.Most of the 45,000 Renault factory workers and subcontract...

​Inflation remains rampant
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 May 2022

Although April National CPI inflation of 6.0%m/m showed a mild decline compared to the surprising 6.7%m/m of Match. This moderate deceleration is to a large extent explained by seasonal factors. Annual inflation remains in an upward trend, closing in April at 58%y/y, compared to 55.1%y/y the mont...

Inflation seemingly stabilizes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

After some delay caused by limited number of working days in early May (due to national holidays) Rosstat reported that inflation in April reached 1.56% m-o-m and 11.67% YTD. Inflation y-o-y hit 17.83%. These figures were generally expected as consumer demand has likely started to shrink, especia...

Ukraine wins Eurovision and stalls Russia in East Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2022

On May 14 Ukraine won the Eurovision Song Contest. It is suspected that other countries voted for Ukraine more out of political solidarity than for musical merit. The singer said from the stage, ''Please help Ukraine and help Mariupol!'' He was referring to the Ukrainian city where hundreds of Uk...

Inflation accelerates, supportive of steady tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2022

April’s CPI increased by 0.8% m/m (4.0% y/y), in line with expectations Core inflation increased by 3.4% y/y from 3% last month, is more broad- based. Accelerating inflation will support a 0.4% rate hike on May 23rd. Our current inflation forecast stands at 3% NTM.The fiscal posture continues to ...

Inflation accelerates in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2022

Inflation accelerates in April Inflation accelerated to 4.0% y/y in April, up from 3.5% last month. The monthly CPI increased by 0.8%, in line with consensus but below our forecast of 0.9%. Core inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%. Several months ago, the BoI began to calculate “core infl...

Seething politics, shaky currency
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2022 · 1 response

The Erdogan administration promised fairly large fiscal stimulus by July in the form of raising civil service pay and pensions. These may be signals for surprise elections in autumn, though the politics author is not yet willing to subscribe to the scenario. At the end, the fate of the shaky curr...

Breakaway region of Georgia may unite with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2022

On May 14 the President of South Ossetia said a referendum on seeking accession to the Russian Federation shall be held. The referendum will be on July 17 2022. It is almost certain that the result will be Yes to joining Russia.In 2008 Russia fought Georgia over the region. Russian troops in Sout...

Rallying, with inflation and police violence the main issues
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 May 2022

Given the atmosphere of global uncertainty, everything would seem to indicate that the Dominican economy is managing to overcome the situation well, and without great difficulties, except for the problem of inflation. GDP grew 6.1% in Q1 2022, compared to the same period in 2021; exports of to...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 May 2022

May 4 National bank: Current account surplus reached $2.2 bln in 1Q22, according to preliminary estimates Bureau of National Statistics: CPI in April was 2% y-o-y and 7.3% in 4M22 Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (local railways): Transportation for export via railroad grew in 1Q22 by 6% y-o-y May 5 Parlia...

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