GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On November 27 The Financial Times reported that Turkey's sale of militarily applicable goods to Russia has shot up since 2022. There are 45 items that are dual use. They are sold to Russia directly or indirectly. The explanation is that they have a civilian use as well as a military one. The ite...

The MNB is under friendly fire: rating agencies appear to be worried

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023 · 1 response

A few days ago, we wrote in our monthly report that the government may step up supporting the MNB's strong forint policy towards end-2023, because of its desire to present a materially decreasing debt ratio. But so far, actual events do not seem to support our forecast. The MNB has received criti...

Economics: Construction boosts GDP growth in the third quarter, while manufacturing stagnates

MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2023

Third quarter GDP data released Friday was closely in line with what Inegi estimated roughly a month earlier in the preliminary figures, with the economy growing an annual 3.3% and a cumulative 3.6% for the first nine months of the year. Growth continues to be driven, above all, by the constructi...

Budget deficits grow as FX sales from the National Fund appreciate the tenge and trim revenues

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M23, the republican budget deficit reached KZT 2.9trln, while the plan for this period was far smaller (KZT 2.355 trln) as the deficit for 2023, as a whole, assumed the KZT 3.209 total amount. In 10M23, the government financed 78.0% of annual planned exp...

Rates on hold with a loosening bias

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

Rates on hold with a loosening bias Policy rates remained unchanged today at a level of 4.75%. Inflation has moderated but remains slightly above target, and the economy is recovering in some components of activity. During the press conference, Governor Yaron stressed that monetary loosening will...

Lula travels to Saudi Arabia this week, the president of the House will meet with party leaders to discuss Tax Reform, and a session of Congress is scheduled for Tuesday to analyze presidential vetoes

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Germany this week. He will be accompanied by ministers, governors, and legislators. Participation in COP28 is scheduled for December 1 and 2. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Tax Reform rapporteur,...

OFZ: Temporary improvement

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Recent weeks have been very successful for the OFZ market. Despite the CBR's key-rate hike to 15% at the end of October, the yield growth in government bonds turned out to be limited. At the same time, demand increased in the primary market, which allowed Minfin to boost borrowing. Apparently, in...

Rate stability expected today, with an easing bias

ISRAEL · Report · 27 Nov 2023

1. A rate-hold decision today is likely, with a strong easing bias. This could entail an unscheduled revised macro forecast for 2024, including a lower policy rate forecast. 2. “Broad” unemployment spiked to 10.4% in October; one quarter of all those usually employed were absent from work for ...

Too many “known unknowns”

TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2023

The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January. This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mix...

Rate stability expected today (Monday) with a loosening bias

ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s operation in Gaza has been put on hold for several days in exchange for the return of hostages. The ceasefire is expected to be temporary although the hostage release priority could delay the renewal of the military operation for longer than initially expected. Low level hos...

Dozens of Russian drones attack Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2023

On the night of November 24 Russia launched its largest ever air attack on Kyiv. Ukraine said that it shot down 71 drones, which was almost all of them. They were said to be Shahed drones, which are Iranian designed. However, it is thought that Russia now has its own factory to make Shaheds. Ukra...

Growing number of Russians and Ukrainians want to end the war

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 15 an organization called "Russian Field" carried out an opinion poll and showed that 49% of people wanted to negotiate an end to the war and 39% wanted to fight on. These figures have moved considerably in favor of peace talks since June 2023. The November 2023 poll also showed growi...

National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate to 15.75%

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 15.75%. The regulator referred to slowing inflation (0.7% m-o-m and 10.8% y-o-y in October) and now expects it to fall to the 9.3%-10.3% range by the end of the year. Next year's inflation target remains unchanged at...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Tajikistan the weakest link in the CCA in terms of its ability to repay foreign debt?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023

In 2020 the World Bank stated that in Tajikistan “the risk of debt default is high." Ever since, this assessment has consistently carried through a variety of analyses undertaken both by IFIs and rating agencies. For example, in its most recent review of the economy, the WB re-affirmed its judgme...

A good, positive surprise from the MPC

TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by 500 bps to 40% today, above the consensus forecast, including ours, of 250 bps (see chart). The statement also provides specific forward guidance now, which reads as follows (link here): “The Committee assessed that the current level of monetary tightness is...