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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Quid pro quo
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 May 2022

The Biden administration is finally determined to play its cards in favor of a credible negotiation process that channels the political conflict and leads to democratic progress in Venezuela.On May 17, the quid pro quo that the Venezuelan government had waited for since the surprise meeting of Ju...

An opportunity for President Lasso to reinvent himself
ECUADOR · Report · 17 May 2022

The various unsuccessful attempts to reach agreements with the Assembly are not President Lasso's only headaches. Several massacres in the jail system that have caused the deaths of over 350 inmates since 2021, and violence and insecurity on the streets – especially in Guayaquil, which now has th...

Vigorous recovery and resilience of Dominican economy despite challenges from global factors, according to IMF Mission
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 May 2022

The IMF concluded the 2022 Article IV Consultation Mission and recognized that "the economy has shown a vigorous recovery after the pandemic, despite global factors that have generated challenges in terms of inflation." For the IMF, resilience and signs of policy sustainability are placing the Do...

Kazakhstan macro: on the right track
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 17 May 2022

Despite the fact that the Kazakh government became less optimistic about the prospects of the country's economic growth in 2022, having lowered its GDP growth estimate to 2.1% from the previous 3.9%, the outcome may be better as the country has the chance to benefit from the fact that the Russian...

The Fiscal Risk and The Behavior Of The Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2022

In this Report, we evaluate the behavior of the Real after the pandemic. To explain the discrepancy between its behavior and that of the currencies of most other countries, we apply a model that, with proper consideration of the various structural breaks, quantitatively evaluates the effects of t...

Castillo struggles to survive; 2022 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.7%
PERU · Report · 17 May 2022

President Pedro Castillo has surprised commentators by successfully fending off several attempts to oust him from office. In past reports, we have argued that the opposition in Congress does not have the votes to impeach the president. However, there is another, more subtle, reason why Castillo h...

The PSDB meets to discuss Doria’s letter to the party’s president, Bolsonaro once again criticizes the electoral process, and public servants are on strike for a salary raise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2022

In his letter, Doria claims he is being targeted by repeated "coup attempts". He faces resistance inside and outside the PSDB. He does not believe that the selection of the presidential candidate of the third-way alliance should be made according to polling results. If he is not chosen, he is con...

Excellent GDP growth figure for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 May 2022

GDP grew by 2.1% qoq, 8.0% yoy on seasonally adjusted basis in Q1. These numbers are preliminary, no breakdown is available at this stage.As we have said a few times previously, there is currently little problem about growth. There is is much more trouble with equilibrium, including the budget, i...

The results of the PRD elections ratify the political power of the legislators
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 May 2022 · 1 response

What the 4,146 delegates (only 1.3% absentees) decided in Sunday`s PRD elections of the National Executive Committee (CEN) of the Party confirmed the power of the legislators vis-à-vis the executive. The PRD is not only the party of President Cortizo; it also has a majority of diputados in the Le...

Economics: Holes in PACIC package for combating inflation, but it is positive that price controls are not included
MEXICO · Report · 16 May 2022

The gravity of Mexico’s latest inflation results poses major challenges for the federal government and consumers alike, and immediately contributed to Banco de México’s decision last Thursday to raise its same-day interbank reference rate by 50 basis points for a fourth straight time, to 7.0%, in...

The Lula ceiling and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2022

The third way parties (PSDB-MDB-Cidadania) meet again to discuss the poll results that will define the selection of the bloc's candidate. Eletrobras's privatization process will be discussed again at the TCU. Public servants continue to pressure the government for salary raises. The fuel price is...

GDP contracted modestly in Q122, not really indicative of actual activity
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 May 2022

GDP contracted modestly in Q122 The official GDP growth print came in at -1.6% saar in the 1st quarter of the year, following rapid growth of 15.6% in Q421 (and 8.2% growth in all 2021).We stress that that past two years of Covid and periodic Covid restrictions led to significant problems in meas...

Politics: Two tragic examples of government incompetence in the capital’s airspace and Metro
MEXICO · Report · 16 May 2022

Since the very first months of López Obrador’s time as president it has been apparent that his administration would display grave defects in daily governing tasks, a deficiency that translates not only into an inability to address the multiple problems society faces but also into an incapacity to...

Stronger Growth and Higher Inflation: The Central Bank’s Reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 May 2022

Both because Brazilian growth benefits from higher international commodity prices and because the government has been using fiscal and credit stimulus policies to expand demand, economic activity began the year on the upswing. The most recent data indicate that growth in the first quarter was 1.3...

'Careful but resolute price control measures' have sent EURHUF up to 391-392
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2022

Parliament formally elected Viktor Orbán for prime minister for the fifth time today. In his introductory speech, held in the afternoon, he spoke of inflation, saying that the government and the central bank will need to cooperate to solve the problem. On the government's role, he said: 'Careful ...

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