GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

1. Despite inflation moderation in February, a rate cut in April is far from assured. 2. We are forecasting inflation of 3.2% in the NTM due to an expansionary fiscal policy, higher shipping costs, and an expected acceleration in rental prices. 3. The current account surplus has improved bu...

Philippines: Jobs trend slightly reverses course

PHILIPPINES · Report · 18 Mar 2024

The Philippines’ employment rate increased slightly, to 95.5 percent in January 2024 from the 95.2 percent posted in January of the previous year. The rate was, however, lower than the 96.9 percent employment rate recorded in December 2023. Some seasonality is definitely involved here. Consider...

Putin wins record vote in dubious election

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

As we predicted, Putin won a higher share of the vote than ever before: 87%. He expressed his gratitude to those who voted and took the opportunity to praise Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. He said the war explained the high turnout, which was a record breaking 70%. The runner up was the co...

Next rate decision will hinge mostly on the direction of the shekel

ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

Inflation continued to moderate in February Inflation slowed to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, and core to 2.2% from 2.4%. The main item moderating inflation was housing rental prices which decelerated to 2.0% y/y from 3.0% last month. Other items tended to surprise on the upside, both goods and services. I...

It's all about the MPC

TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2024

The races in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir turned largely static during the week, while new poll data from Anatolia was full of surprises. The politics author is confident in calling Ankara and Izmir for CHP incumbents, while Imamoglu stands a good chance to edge out AKP’s Kurum in Istanbul. Yet,...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco hiked dividends, Saudi Q4 GDP, UAE Q4 fiscal, Dubai PMI surges

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA’s latest forecast sees the market in deficit this year. * US criticism of Israel intensified as Ramadan began without a ceasefire and with growing famine concerns. * Hamas reduced its demands, t...

100 Days to Celebrate

ECUADOR · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Daniel Noboa can celebrate his first 100 days in office with an 80% acceptance of his mandate—the highest level of popularity enjoyed by an Ecuadorian president. He moved fast on the right track to partially contain the dangerous insecurity and violence situation of last January and to...

Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, three bills submitted by the government should be put to a vote next week, and the STF is expected to analyze the case of the lifetime review of the INSS

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, March 18. The meeting was motivated by the drop in popularity recorded by opinion polls published a few days ago (Atlas, Genial/ Quaest, and IPEC). Next week, starting on March 19, four bills that have an urgent status in t...

Inflation continues to moderate, rate cut in April far from certain

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2024

Inflation continues to moderate, but the devil is in the details Inflation in February (0.4% m/m, 2.5% y/y down from 2.6% in January) was in line with expectations (or a bit at the high end, we were expecting 0.3%). Core inflation (headline excluding energy and fresh produce) moderated to 2.2% y/...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging impulses in monetary policies across CCA

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Mar 2024

This week brought three rate decisions in the CCA, including Armenia, Georgia and Uzbekistan. They demonstrate that, while the broader easing momentum in the region continues, policymakers take a different view on how underlying macroeconomic conditions affect the path for policy rates. Indeed...

Moldova has met most conditions for EU membership

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

On March 12 the EU Commission privately published a report saying that Moldova has met 11 of the 12 conditions for accession talks. The report was leaked to the media. The last remaining condition is to examine the background of judges properly and appoint a new Prosecutor General. There have bee...

February CPI and monetary policy implications

CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...

Lula's challenges and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

The government may submit a new bill to Congress on the Perse program and payroll tax relief for municipalities. The STJ should adjudicate the inclusion of energy tariffs in the calculation of the ICMS. Mauro Vieira talks about the government's foreign policy. This week's Talking Points: ...

Polls reflect drop in government’s approval ratings, the House continues to elect presidencies of the permanent committees, and the STJ may adjudicate the case on the calculation of the ICMS tax

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

Last week, polls from three institutes (IPEC, Atlas, and Quaest/Genial) showed a drop in the government's ratings and raised concerns, especially due to the upcoming municipal elections. With this, President Lula is expected to hold a ministerial meeting next Monday, March 18. Also this week, the...

It's crunch time, again

TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...