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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The war becomes protracted amid growing support of the war in Russian society
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

The 36th day of war. We do not see any big changes at the front except the continued reallocation of Russian forces to Donbas and to the South East of Ukraine. To the North of Kyiv a big group of the Russian military is staying in operational encirclement. The Russians also withdrew from the Nort...

The Evergrande bank heist
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Chinese banks took control of $2 billion of Evergrande cash held by Evergrande Property Services, a unit of Evergrande. Surprisingly, the company expressed confusion about the transfer and said it is “investigating” how the banks claimed the funds. What does this tell us about China’s economy as ...

Putin's approval up in March
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

A Levada opinion poll showed that the president's approval climbed from 69% in February to 83% in March 2022. This is likely due to the war. As the saying goes: no war is at first unpopular. If the war drags on for months and casualties mount, then his popularity will dip.Western hopes that sanct...

No rate hike, no surprise at today's deposit tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

The usual Thursday tender for 1-week deposits has been called with an unchanged 6.15% fixed interest rate by the MNB today.On this occasion, a further rate hike would have been surprising for two reasons:- The forint is currently (slightly) stronger than EURHUF 370, the level which the MNB has be...

Is it game over? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Mar 2022

Notwithstanding aerial photos in social media showing a sea of pink in Vice President Leni Robredo’s campaign rallies, pink being her signature color, surveys suggest that the impressive attendances are hardly making a dent on her poll numbers. The latest figures we’ve seen, done by The Laylo Rep...

We share Minister Alexander's optimism for 2022, but some issues remain unresolved. Politics retake the headlines.
PANAMA · Report · 30 Mar 2022

The macroeconomic and fiscal projections presented in mid-March by the MEF are consistent with previous official forecasts and those of most analysts. Efforts to exit the GAFI list are moving slowly. Structural reforms to the CSS pension program will wait for the conclusions of the ILO report. Pr...

Fidesz still holds the lead in the election race, polls suggest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2022

Four days before election day, Medián Opinion and Market Research measured 40% support for Fidesz and only 32% support for the united opposition. As the local electoral law typically rewards the winner, this result can be translated into a 128 to 71 win for Fidesz, in terms of the parliamentary s...

Two new polls on the presidential election to be published today, the STF should review the ADPF on the Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon, and there are rumors that Persio Arida will lead Lula’s economic team if elected
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2022

The new polls — one from Banco Modal and another from PoderData — are not expected to bring much new information. The polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro remains consolidated, and it is also unlikely that either of the polls will be able to consistently measure the impact of the episode invol...

Russia claims to be de-escalating but the West is doubtful
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2022

On March 29 Moscow said it was halting major combat operations in northern Ukraine and concentrating on the Donbas. Ukraine remains skeptical but noted there has been a reduction in Russian activity near Kyiv. The US suspects that Russia is rotating units. Some Russian units have been in the fiel...

Russian macro: in search of integrity
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Having experienced a shock, a month after the start of the military operation some Russian producers and ministries began talking about inevitable changes to their business plans. Even when things go in line with the plans made at the very top level, making one's own plans becomes increasingly co...

Preparing for the new normal
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Mar 2022

The Indonesian economy has been significantly affected by the pandemic for the past two years, and this has had a significant bearing on the Indonesian government budget. Expenditures for medical assistance were very high over the past two years, as were expenses for the social safety net program...

Adriano Pires will be the new president of Petrobras, Minister of Education Milton Ribeiro stepped down, and Eduardo Leite has decided to remain in the PSDB
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

The Ministry of Mines and Energy has confirmed the appointment of Adriano Pires to the presidency of Petrobras. The company's Ordinary General Meeting will take place on April 13, which is when Adriano should assume his position as head of the state-owned company. In addition to the change at Pet...

Russia and Erdogan talk in Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2022

President Erdogan is hosting delegations from the two countries. Erdogan said it is vital that the two sides make progress. Turkey has cordial relations with Russia despite being a NATO country and an ally of Azerbaijan which is a foe of Armenia (a Russian ally). Turkey has sold bayraktar drones ...

Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke auditions for world's best as William and Kate arrive in Jamaica. His stated agenda - "Reform with ambition"
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Jamaica’s budget debate was concluded last week by Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke on Tuesday, March 22, just as Prince William and his wife Kate were arriving in Jamaica as part of their three-nation royal visit of Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas, all of which still have the Queen as their hea...

Fidesz holds its lead just one week before the election, poll says
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Mar 2022

Exactly one week before the election, due on the coming Sunday (April 3), Závecz Research measured in an opinion poll 41% support for Fidesz and 39% support for United for Hungary, that is the united opposition, both as percentage of the whole electorate. Závecz Research is a leading local pollst...

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