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Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2023

On March 9 large scale attacks killed at least 7 Ukrainians and resulted in electricity cuts in many parts of Ukraine. Ukraine said that it had shot down almost half the 81 missiles. Power stations were targeted yet again. Lviv was one of the 10 regions targeted. Lviv is in the west of the countr...

Iran alleged to be arming Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2023

On March 8 a British TV channel claimed that Iran is shipping bullets, rockets and mortar shells to Russia via the Caspian Sea. The munitions were allegedly sent by two Russian cargo ships. Sky News said that the shipment included 100 million bullets, 300,000 shells and 10,000 flak jackets and he...

Peso debt swap with a renewed BCRA put option to shield the domestic debt market ahead of the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Tomorrow, Thursday, March 9, from 10:00 AM to 3:30 PM (BA time), the Treasury will be receiving bids to participate in a debt swap to extend the maturity of peso debt instruments, offering inflation-adjusted instruments maturing between April 2024 and February 2025. The government aims to push fo...

No big surprises from the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * We are halfway through the “two sessions” meetings of the NPC and CPPCC with many of the major speeches on the budget, economic policies, and economic prospects delivered. China will target GDP growth this year of 5 percent, although Chinese provin...

Inflation fell a bit in February, the economy is weakening further - nothing unexpected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2023

What everyone had been expecting is now there in the actual data: following a sharp upsurge since about April last year, CPI-inflation edged down a bit, to 25.4% yoy in February, from 25.7% yoy in the previous month. Likewise, core inflation fell a little, to 25.2% yoy from 25.4% yoy. Yesss (!), ...

The chairs of the standing committees of Congress should be chosen, and the Tax Reform Working Group will hear from Bernard Appy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Today, March 8, the chair and vice-chair candidates appointed by the leaders of the party blocs to the standing committees of the Senate will be elected. In the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) also had the party leaders submit the list of candidates to chair the standing committees. Today, the Tax Ref...

South Africa’s economic growth decelerates to 2% in 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy contracted during the final quarter of 2022 following a rallying of 1.8% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP recorded a growth rate of -1.3% q/q, la...

President Ramaphosa reshuffles his cabinet under duress
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

Last night after much anticipation and months of delays, President Ramaphosa finally announced some fairly predictable changes to his Cabinet. His old ally and now X-Deputy President David Mabuza finally resigned as a Member of the Parliament after weeks of hoping that Ramaphosa would reshuffle b...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, albeit with no signs of acceleration
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, inflation m-o-m in February was 1.3%, i.e., much higher than in February 2022 (0.8% m-o-m). As a result, y-o-y inflation in February moved to 21.3% (from 20.7% a month ago), while the 6M moving average monthly inflation stayed at 1.4%, i.e., almost ...

Lula is likely to keep the Minister of Communications in office, the União Brasil and the PP are considering forming a party federation, and Bolsonaro continues to lose political capital
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2023

President Lula met with the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho (União), accused of using a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) plane to participate in an auction of racehorses in São Paulo and omitting information about his personal assets to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Lula has decided to...

February inflation at 8.6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

The headline inflation rate slid from a 15-year high of 8.7% in January to 8.6% in February. It was below analysts’ expectations (8.9% median) and within the BSP’s forecast for the month (8.5% to 9.6%) but it basically reflected unchanged prices on the average, i.e., zero month-on-month inflation...

Deux Ex Machina for Nation Alliance, Final Battle for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023 · 6 responses

It has been a very eventful day for Turkey, the nomination of Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the joint presidential candidate of the reunited Nation Alliance (NA) being only one. Earlier in the day, Saudi Arabia deposited $5 bn with CBRT, somewhat reducing the likelihood of a currency shock before the ele...

Federal budget deficit narrowed in February as spending moderated tax collection improved
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

Minfin reported that the federal budget deficit in February decreased to R821 bn (versus R1760 bn in January) as non-oil-and-gas tax collection improved and reached R1286 bn (versus 931 bn in January). The oil-and-gas tax flow was poor in both months as the price for Russian oil remained below $5...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

Just In the few weeks since assuming office, the new government has been repeating the imprudent pattern of confronting the limits imposed on its power by the established rules, as is typical of autocracies of the right or left. Unlike Bolsonaro, who left decisions on economic questions largely i...

The Deceleration of GDP And the Possible Reaction of the Government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

If the decline of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 had been a fleeting event, followed by recovery, there would be no worry about the government’s reaction. But this was not a temporary deceleration, but rather a persistent one. Despite the expansionary fiscal policy, monetary policy has been in...

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