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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Opposition Front: United, we stand strong
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2022

Leaders of the six parties constituting the loose Nation Alliance gathered the second time in a month on Sunday night. At the top of the agenda was the AKP-MHP proposed amendments to the Electoral Law which largely aims tonix the chances of smaller parties to elect deputies to the Grand Assembly....

Politics: Attorney General’s Office, top prosecutor bogged down in scandals, mutual attacks
MEXICO · Report · 28 Mar 2022 · 1 response

The public spotlight continues to be focused on Mexico’s top prosecutor, Alejandro Gertz Manero, but the implications and fallout from his shenanigans are also affecting President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his inner circle. Gertz remains mired in legal scandals related to his attempt to use...

Economics: Perception of Banxico's following the Fed poses medium-term risks
MEXICO · Report · 28 Mar 2022

In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s March 16 quarter-point tightening and notification that it has the intention to raise borrowing costs at each successive rate review scheduled for the current year, Mexico’s central bank did not take long to respond. While this was the Fed’s initial rate lift...

Lula and Bolsonaro advance while the others stall and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

This will be a busy week due to the deadline for party affiliations and resignations. Bolsonaro will likely build a new ministerial team. Up to eight governors are expected to resign from their positions to run for another elective office in October. This week's Talking Points: * Eduar...

Commodity Prices, Terms of Trade and the Real Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

In 2019, Brazil’s current account deficit was US$65 billion, while in 2021 it reached only US$24.5 billion. Our projections for 2022 indicate there should be a small surplus. The greatest contribution to this result will come from the balance of trade, whose surplus will benefit from the rising i...

Long-term RMB trend remains stable
CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2022

Economic recovery has been relatively strong, thanks largely to export and fiscal policy support. In January-February, industrial output rose 7.5% y/y, up 3.2 pps from December 2021. Investment was up 12.2% y/y, up 7.3 pps from 2021. Real estate investment increased 3.7%, having stopped its previ...

The period for party affiliations, resignations and electoral registration ends this week, the Minister of Education will speak in the Senate on Thursday, and there will be two important judgments in the STF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

The period for party affiliations, resignations and electoral registration ends on April 2. April 1 is the last day that proportional office holders (federal, state and district deputies) are allowed to switch parties without risking losing their mandate. Milton Ribeiro, the Minister of Education...

​Argentina's new USD debt payments after the EFF approval
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Mar 2022

Following last week´s expected Senate approval, on Friday the board of directors of the IMF approved Argentina´s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. This puts a formal end to a nearly two-year debt negotiation, including the first-ever local Congressional debate to endorse such a financing prog...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Mar 2022

1. Deputy Governor Abir suggested that more aggressive tightening is likely, due to inflation acceleration. 2. The labor market is rapidly returning to pre-Covid employment levels, considered full employment. 3. Hi-tech service exports continue to expand rapidly, supportive of shekel...

Research trip reflections: the impact of a changing Saudi Arabia and differing approaches to the oil windfall
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Mar 2022

I've just completed a 3-week 6-country tour around the GCC to take a sounding of the mood as Covid cases and restrictions ease. I had dozens of meetings with academics, officials, journalists, business leaders, investors and others, whose time, insights and hospitality I greatly appreciate. Trave...

China withdraws from Russian gas marketing deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2022

On March 27 it was announced that Sinopec Group is pulling out of a USD 500 million deal to market gas for Sibur. Sinopec Group is state run and fears being sanctioned if it proceeds with the deal.Sinopec attended a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Ministry before announcing its decision. This ha...

UAE: Quick thoughts on Sharjah's paused sukuk issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 28 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Sharjah began marketing a $750m sukuk last week, its first since July 2021. We had initially thought this had priced on Friday, but this was incorrect (thanks for the correction from a client). The issuance seems to have paused because of volatile rates (GC) but may price this week. Here are a fe...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

The Deputy Governor suggests aggressive tightening ahead At a conference on Thursday, Andrew Abir said: “In view of recent developments in inflation and the increase in expectations, the process of monetary tapering may be more rapid than we thought.” Clearly, a rate hike on April 11th is to be e...

Uptick in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

Three Armenian soldiers were killed on March 25 in skirmishes with Azerbaijan. The two countries fought a war in 2020 that Azerbaijan won. There are Russian peacekeepers keeping the Armenians and Azerbaijanis apart. This is supposed to ensure that neither side fires on the other for fear of hitti...

Ukraine abroad, electoral bill at home
TURKEY · Report · 27 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As the Ukraine war stretches into extra innings with a horrifying human toll, Turkey is inexorably sucked into the black hole. At the diplomatic front, all three sides seem to be testing her loyalty. Regarding the West, Erdogan failed the first litmus test by rejecting a presumed US suggestion to...

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