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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The first month of the war has passed: recapturing of occupied lands in progress
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Mar 2022

The first month of the war has passed. Apparently, Kremlin miscalculated readiness of Ukrainians to defend their freedoms. If the eastern part of the country might had had some illusions about Russia before 2014, they had a chance to see an excellent demonstration what “Russian world” is in occup...

GULF WEEKLY: Houthis bombard KSA, Sharjah markets sukuk, Oman boosts capex
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Mar 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Aramco will increase capex but not its dividend. * Saudi Arabia suffered a barrage of Houthi attacks, including damage to an LPG refinery. The US has finally restocked KSA’s patriot missiles, despite bilateral tensions. ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2022

As the oil price has moved higher, in recent days hovering around $120/bbl, the ruble bounced back and has seemingly stabilized. Accordingly, banks became less dependent on the liquidity provided by the CBR. Still, the ruble fluctuated in a wide range amid the unstoppable news flow. An idea to st...

Polls show Bolsonaro’s popularity is recovering, Eduardo Leite should step down as governor of Rio Grande do Sul today, and there will be major political moves next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2022

Since the government has announced measures that have not yet had an effect on public opinion, such as the early access to the 13th salary installment for retirees and pensioners and the withdrawals of up to R$ 1,000 from the FGTS, there is room for the distance between Bolsonaro and Lula to narr...

Another 25-bp increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Mar 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced yesterday that it is once again raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points – its third consecutive increase. This pushes the repo rate up​ from 4% to 4.25% and the prime lending rate from 7.5% to 7.75%. ...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2022

• Russia invaded Ukraine, and this has proved a tougher fight for Russia than everyone anticipated. On February 24 Russian forces crossed the border into what even Russia recognizes as Ukrainian territory. Conflict has been raging across much of the country since then – and seen the outright d...

The 1-week deposit rate went up to 6.15% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2022

This represented another +30 bps, continuing the MNB's step-by-step tightening policy. As we said twice already, the Bank has appeared to defend the EURHUF 370 level in practice since early November, and as the exchange rate stood at 375 immediately before the decision, it may have appeared appro...

Russia expels 12 US diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2022

On March 23 Moscow made the move in reprisal for the US expelling 12 Russian diplomats who worked at the UN. The United States expelled the Russians three weeks ago, so the Russian response was a surprisingly long time in coming. The US called the move unjustified. Notably, Russia did not accuse ...

The crisis in the Ministry of Education continues, two new polls on the presidential election will be published today, and the STF postponed the analysis of the Carf cases to today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2022

Prosecutor General Augusto Aras asked the STF to open an investigation into the Minister of Education, Milton Ribeiro. In recordings, mayors revealed that pastors who work with the Ministry of Education have been requesting bribes. For the time being, the incident shouldn’t cause further damage t...

Poland expels 45 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2022

On March 23 Warsaw said the diplomats are spies. The Poles also arrested a Pole whom they suspect of being a Russian agent. Moscow denies this. Russia has vowed to respond in kind. Poland has been among the most forthright NATO countries when it comes to helping Ukraine. Poland is hosting 2 milli...

Inflation in 2022 is likely to be the highest in twenty years
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that in the seven days ending on March 18, inflation reached 1.93%, therefore bringing the MTD and YTD tallies to 5.38% and 7.67%. Prices continue to rise fast across the board, and there are no signs yet that inflation w-o-w can decelerate materially any time soon. Inflation m-o...

The war impact cannot be properly assessed yet
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Mar 2022

Whatever used to be the state and the prospects of Hungary politically and economically, the whole story has been thoroughly rewritten by the war in Ukraine. The latter has dampened the outlook for growth, raised prospective inflation and interest rates, added further strains to fiscal policy, an...

Geraldo Alckmin expected to join the PSB today, the House approved the urgent status of the bill that sets a national salary floor for nursing professionals, and the STF analyzes the cases that challenge the end of the tie-breaking vote in the Carf
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2022

As we have said before, Alckmin’s affiliation with the PSB practically confirms his alliance with former President Lula. The Lula-Alckmin ticket is expected to be announced in April. Lira has said he will give the House five weeks to try to agree on a source of funding for the national salary flo...

Russian IT specialists emigrating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2022

On March 20 the Russian Association for Electronic Communications (RAEC) said about 60,000 IT workers have left the country since February 2020. Since the 1990s there has been a brain drain, but this has hugely accelerated since the war began 3 weeks ago. IT specialists are location independent. ...

Russia’s epochal turn: back to the future
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2022

As Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is far from being over and becomes increasingly "special", and new sanctions keep coming, the situation looks extremely uncertain. On top of that, many foreign companies are voluntarily leaving Russia or suspending their operations almost every ...

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