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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Quick reaction from the EU to Hungary's election result
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Apr 2022

It took less than 48 hours for the EU Commission to react to Hungary's election result. Today, Mrs. von der Leyen told the European Parliament that the Commission is now starting a rule-of-law procedure against Hungary, the first of its kind in the EU's history. The Commission have sent questions...

The House to vote on the MP that increases Auxílio Brasil payments to R$ 400, Bolsonaro to meet with Minister of Mines and Energy to discuss the presidency of Petrobras, and public servants threaten to broaden strikes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2022

The House will vote on the Provisional Measure (MP) that increases the Auxílio Brasil payments to R$ 400 through December 31. It is a risky vote for the government because there are edits suggesting an increase in the amount to R$ 600 or making the benefit permanent. Adriano Pires formally announ...

Challenges for the Indian Central Bank: Trade-off between managing inflation and debt of the government
INDIA · In Brief · 05 Apr 2022

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet after two days to decide on the policy rate. While inflation has been above the RBI's upper threshold of 6 percent for two consecutive months, RBI has maintained status quo on rates and kept an accommodative stance to sup...

March inflation jumps to 4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2022

The large upward adjustments last month in domestic pump prices pushed up the headline inflation rate to 4%, the upper end of the BSP inflation target, from only 3% in February. The headline rate reflects a month-on-month inflation rate of 0.6%, with may be traced almost entirely to increases in ...

US vows more sanctions on Russia and more arms for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Apr 2022

On April 4 the US National Security adviser made the pledge. He said that the US was negotiating with the EU on a new round of sanctions. The US also said there should be a war crimes investigation into alleged Russian atrocities in Ukraine. The US claims Russia has been defeated in northern Ukra...

Economics: The international context holds major implications for the 2022 outlook
MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2022

With the international economy facing the threat of a significant slowing given the increasing risk of a US deceleration, elevated and persistent inflation, a significant rise in interest rates and financial volatility or uncertainty, Mexican monetary and economic policy officials are facing majo...

Politics: New GEA-ISA poll shows a sharp drop in AMLO´s approval rating
MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2022 · 1 response

Mexico’s situation is clearly deteriorating in terms of its economy, public security, foreign policy, and social indicators, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is unable or unwilling to adequately respond to these challenges. This has been reflected in the latest GEA-ISA poll, conducted fr...

Bolsonaro's economic strategy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2022

Several groups of public servants will meet to decide on the possibility of going on strike for salary raises. The Senate makes a concentrated effort this week to review official appointments. At least four new polls on the upcoming presidential elections will be published this week. This week...

COSTA RICA: Rodrigo Chaves elected president, 2022-2026
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 04 Apr 2022

Rodrigo Chaves, former minister of finance, won the presidential runoff on Sunday, April 3, according to preliminary results published by the Electoral Supreme Court. The turnout was one of the lowest in decades as voters expressed discontent with both candidates. Chaves won 52.8% of the valid vo...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Apr 2022

After 40 days, the war provoked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “forecast” by Putin to last only a few days, has left a trail of atrocities committed by the invaders. The heroic resistance of the Ukrainian army and civilians, with the support of Western countries, has managed to contain the R...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 4, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 04 Apr 2022

Cases continued to drop sharply over the past two weeks. For the week ending Sunday, cases declined to 13.4K, corresponding to some 34% decline from two weeks ago. Cases are widely expected to decline further in the coming weeks.

Russia tries to stem IT brain drain
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2022

Russia's economy is reeling. Few foreign firms will invest in Russian tech for a long term. The investment climate is deeply unattractive. Tens of thousands of IT workers have left the country since February 2022. The consequences for the economy and cybersecurity are serious. IT workers are shif...

Inflation exceeds 60% in March
TURKEY · Report · 04 Apr 2022

March CPI inflation came in at 5.5%, m/m, broadly line with the consensus, but slightly lower than our forecast. The 12-month CPI inflation thus rose sharply higher to 61.1%, from 54.4% in February, which is the highest level seen since March 2002 (based on the old series for the pre-2004 period)...

Several groups of public servants are discussing going on strike, the House may vote on the Provisional Measure to increase the Auxílio Brasil payments to R$ 400, and the Senate will focus on reviewing offical appointments this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2022

Workers of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Treasury and the Comptroller General of the Federal Government are considering striking. The public servants of the Federal Revenue Service are already on work-to-rule, and Central Bank workers started an indefinite strike last week....

Fiscal aspects of the pension reform
INDIA · Report · 04 Apr 2022

Generous pension promises were made to civil servants in previous decades. The fiscal consequences of these promises started growing with rising longevity. In 2003, it was estimated that the implicit pension debt, on account of all government workers or pensioners (summing across all government o...

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