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The ANC offers more promises during its 111th annual anniversary celebrations
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jan 2023

Following his victory at the African National Congress (ANC) at the December 2022 Elective Conference that secured him a second term as the party’s leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the ANC’s January 8th Statement. The annual delivery of the Party’s plans for both the organization itsel...

China’s abrupt U-turns
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2023

China has done an about-face on a number of issues that signal a sudden realization that the economy continues to slow and the country’s policies are not working. China has reversed course on domestic Covid control, the property market and its former frosty approach to diplomacy; we even witnesse...

Genuine bad news on industry and merchandise trade in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Industrial output fell by 0.7% mom, on sda basis, in November, following a 3.6% mom decrease in the previous month. This pulled the yoy expansion down to 0.7% in November, from 4.8% in October and 8.3% in Q3.  November numbers are preliminary, meaning a revision in the final data is unlikely but ...

Soylu will sack Ekrem Imamoglu
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

After being banned from politics for a completely fabricated crime, Istanbul’s popular CHP mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is also facing the threat of being sacked from his post. While the government spokespeople are very vague on this eventuality, the entire main-stream opposition is already up in the air...

What Will the New Fiscal Framework Be?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jan 2023

We began 2023 knowing that the approval of the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) on the transition has made it possible to alter the spending cap by enacting a complementary law, and that the execution of the budget in 2023 will lead to a deficit of R$ 230 billion, putting the public debt b...

The agenda of the first months and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jan 2023

The National Congress will hold an extraordinary meeting in Brasília to vote on the federal intervention in the Federal District due to the invasion of public buildings. The Ministry of Finance may announce a set of fiscal and economic measures. Ministers continue to announce members of their res...

Central Asian hydropower plan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jan 2023

On January 5 ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a deal to build the Kambar-Ata 1 hydropower plant in Kyrgyzstan. Work shall commence in 2024 and completion is projected for 2028. The scheme will be the biggest hydropower plant in Kyrgyzstan and will provide the other two ...

The effects of the invasions of public buildings yesterday continue to develop, Lula will meet with Rosa Weber and governors today, and the Ministry of Finance may announce economic and fiscal measures
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jan 2023

Today, the National Congress will hold an extraordinary meeting to vote on President Lula's (PT) decree enacting a federal intervention in the Federal District (DF) until January 31. This intervention should pass easily. President Lula will meet with the President of the STF, Rosa Weber, today at...

Markets will be following fiscal policy closely
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Jan 2023

1. S&P has expressed concern regarding the political, geopolitical and fiscal policy of the new government. 2. Business sentiment remains strong, with some softening of future expectations. 3. Rapid wage growth in the business sector reflects a tight labor market; public sector wage increas...

Markets will be following fiscal policy closely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

9.1.23 The Bond market: The S&P analyst in charge of Israel, Maxim Rybnikov, in an interview for Calcalist, expressed concern regarding the functioning of the new government and possible weakening of the judicial system. Political, geo-political and fiscal developments will be followed closely in...

Entering 2023, all buttons punched
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

President Erdogan kicked off the year with the mother of all pork-barreling drives to win elections. While his magnanimity is certain to stimulate the standings in the polls of him and his AKP-MHP alliance, the surge is very unlikely to last until the elections or alter the current equilibrium in...

Turkmen President on a state visit to China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

On January 5 he arrived in Beijing for a 2-day visit. The Turkmen government revealed little about the trip. The president met his Chinese counterpart.  President Berdymukhamedov only took over from his father in 2022. Relations with China are top priority, especially as Russia is distracted by U...

Is inflation still accelerating? Well, it depends...
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

Looking at CPI data, the answer is a clear YES. But looking at producer prices, the answer must be much more like a clear NO. Given sharply weakening consumer demand and the close to spectacularly strengthening currency, the latter seems to be more logical. But there is still a good amount of pen...

Zelensky hails arms package
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2023

On January 7 the Ukrainian President applauded Western countries for unprecedented arms shipments. The US is going to send Bradley armored fighting vehicles that destroy tanks as well as anti-aircraft missiles, drones, rockets, howitzers and high precision weapons. On January 6 the US announced t...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023 · 1 response

As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a c...

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