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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

President Bolsonaro’s performance in the polls expected to improve, the PT fears Lula’s controversial statements on abortion may cause electoral damage, and the União Brasil announced it will launch a presidential candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2022

The government still hopes that the improvement in the economic environment can continue and, with that, increase its popularity among the electorate. Minister Paulo Guedes said yesterday that the government can use the excess in tax collection to correct the income tax table for individuals. Aft...

Consumer inflation continues to accelerate, though not in a runaway fashion
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The year-on-year rate of CPI-inflation rose further to 8.5% in March, from 8.3% in February, on a 1% rise of the CPI in March alone.Despite the increase, this may look like a relatively favourable figure, as analysts' median expectation was 8.65% and the MNB predicted something in the 8.5-9% rang...

The key rate cut to 17%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The CBR cut its key rate to 17% while referring to slowing w-o-w inflation, and the risk of further deterioration of the economic activity pressure on the financial sector as well. The regulator also hinted that further rate cuts are possible but the decisions will be data-dependent. High key rat...

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee trims growth forecast and raises inflation projection
INDIA · Report · 08 Apr 2022

The first bi-monthly meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded today. In contrast to the previous monetary policy announcement, the focus this time has been on managing inflation and withdrawing the excess liquidity through formal instruments. The RBI acknowledged that the di...

US bans exports to Russian airlines
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

On April 8 the ban was imposed on Aeroflot, Azur Air and Utair. The US accused the airlines of breaking sanctions. Aeroflot had flown Boeing aircraft which was a violation of a previous sanction. The airlines will not be able to buy American goods for 6 months. They are banned from using US-made ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

The Russian ruble has bounced back in recent days/weeks as more sanctions were announced and a great number of Western exporters terminated their business with Russia. Demand for imports in the country fell and amid a sort of capital controls combined with increased risk of holding money outside ...

Third way parties have set a timeframe to join forces, the TCU will discuss the privatization of Eletrobras, and the Ministry of Mines and Energy released a new list of appointees to the leadership of Petrobras
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Apr 2022

The statement between the third way parties was signed by the presidents of União Brasil, MDB, PSDB and Cidadania. The União Brasil, which still does not have a pre-candidate, should launch a candidacy on April 14. The candidate who will represent the group will be determined on May 18. Today, a ...

US and UK announce new sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

Washington DC announced new sanctions on Alfa Bank and Sberbank and on Putin's daughters. London promised to stop all Russian oil and gas purchases by the end of 2022. The UK has sanctioned Sberbank and Credit Bank of Moscow.The EU is about to ban all imports of Russian coal. The EU wants to phas...

No rate hike and a weaker forint this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

In a surprise move - at the very least, we were surprised - the MNB has not raised its sterilisation rate further today, calling the usual weekly deposit tender with an unchanged 6.15% fixed interest rate. This worked as an outright invitation for EURHUF to try itself above the 380 level, followi...

Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU · In Brief · 06 Apr 2022

Last night the political crisis reached a new high point. Although President Castillo had imposed a 22 hours curfew and suspension of individual liberties at midnight on April 5th, people went massively to the streets to protest and ask for his resignation. Protests had started on March 29th when...

The government still has not selected the new president of Petrobras, the House should vote on the urgent status of the “fake news” bill, and the Tax Reform proposal should be discussed in the Senate CCJ today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2022

There is no consensus around Joaquim Silva e Luna's replacement. Other names are being considered but President Jair Bolsonaro has not yet made his choice. All House committees are expected to be up and running in the coming weeks. The “fake news” bill seeks to improve Brazilian legislation regar...

Leading Russian nationalist politician dies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2022

On April 6 Vladimir Zhirinovsky died. The 75-year-old had been ill for some weeks. He led the Liberal Democratic Party. Despite its name, it was irredentist and authoritarian. He was a vocal supporter of the war in Ukraine. He had also called for Kazakhstan and even Alaska to return to Russia.Zhi...

EU expels 200 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2022

On April 5 Italy, Spain and Slovenia expelled the diplomats. Slovenia even expelled the Russian ambassador and has recalled its own ambassador. France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, Portugal and Estonia expelled Russian diplomats on April 4. The Italians, Danes and Slovenians said this was d...

Coalition stability weakens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Apr 2022

The stability of the coalition weakens One member of Benet’s party Edit Salman, announced her resignation from the coalition. This will weaken the narrow majority of the coalition (from 61 members to 60), although the “Arab List” could support the coalition without actually joining the coalition....

​News from the opposition: Presidential contest and first simulation using the new Electoral Bill
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Apr 2022

Turkey’s all-knowing and infallible pundits are drawing parallels between the unexpected victory of Victor Orban in Hungary and Erdogan, suggesting that all poll results notwithstanding he and the AKP-MHP coalition might win the next race. I shall comment on this topic in detail, if there is dema...

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