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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

January BOP data slightly disappointing, no rate cut likely on March 28
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

Well, January BOP, published today, was not really splendid. If it had been only about the trade account, it would have been great, the annualised single-month deficit ratio falling to 1% of GDP from 2.8% in January 2022, the merchandise deficit doing reasonably well (stable in absolute terms, do...

Explosion at Russian internal intelligence office
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 16 it killed 3 people and injured others. It is unclear if the explosion was caused by enemy action at Rostov on Don. The regional governor said that this explosion was caused by electric wiring. Ukraine has not commented on the incident. Ukraine has carried out numerous attacks in Russi...

Webinar replay - Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2023

How will Hungary’s tight monetary and fiscal policies serve it in 2023 amid economic recession? With rapid BOP improvement on markedly decreasing energy import prices paired with weak domestic demand, will there be disinflation? How will Hungary’s continuing outlier status within the EU and NATO ...

Justice Lewandowski granted the injunction requested by the PCdoB on the State-Owned Companies Law, Minister Haddad will present the new fiscal framework today, and today is the last day for senators to collect signatures for the January 8 CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2023

Justice Ricardo Lewandowski responded to the PCdoB's request for an injunction and suspended parts of the State-Owned Companies Law that restrict the appointment of politicians to management positions. He is the rapporteur for the case in the STF that questions the law. Today, the Minister of Fin...

Belarusian President in Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

On March 13 President Lukashenko met his Iranian counterpart in Teheran. The two presidents signed an agreement on cooperation up to 2026. Belarus is not fighting in Ukraine but is allowing Russians to attack Ukraine via Belarus. Iran is part of Lukashenko's tour of the few authoritarian states t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

Brent/Urals spread recently narrowed to about $25/bbl (from $32-34/bbl seen in December). Although, it didn’t support the ruble as Brent fell below the $75/bbl benchmark amid renewed concerns about a global slowdown. The current thinking is that the economic problems may turn more acute amid rece...

Slide presentation - Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Mar 2023

Get insight into Hungary's macroeconomic outlook and the foreign policy challenges it's facing with the presentation from our webinar, "Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy".

The chairs of the standing committees in the House were selected, Haddad should submit the new fiscal framework tomorrow, and the PCdoB called for the urgent suspension of measures of the State-Owned Companies Law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2023

The two most important committees in the House will be chaired by the PT: the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) and the Finance and Taxation Committee (CFT), The Senate Committees have already been installed. As a result, legislative activity should pick up pace starting next week. The Min...

Russia downs US drone
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

On March 14 a Russian fighter jet downed a US MQ 9 drone over the Black Sea. The US said the Russians had been flying irresponsibly close to the drone in international airspace. Russia said its aircraft did nothing to the drone. Ukraine said Russia's action proves that Russia is taking action aga...

Annual National Inflation climbs above 100%
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Mar 2023 · 1 response

INDEC's official inflation index for February provides information worth reviewing. For starters, the annual inflation rate climbed to a new record high, not seen since the end of 1991, when Argentina was leaving behind its 1989-1990 period of hyper-inflation. Needless to say, this is bad news fo...

Inflation continues to surprise on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

Inflation continues to surprise on the upside February’s CPI came in at 0.5% m/m (expectations were for 0.3%) and 5.2% y/y (down slightly from 5.4% last month). Core inflation remained stable at 5.1% y/y. Several service items surprised on the upside such as domestic vacations (3.5% m/m) and hous...

Economy keeps expanding in February, still unevenly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2M23, the short-term indicator that captures aggregate economic activity industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications grew by 4.0% y-o-y. Industrial output increased by 1.6% y-o-y (by 0.5% in the mining segme...

Lula says ministers must consult with the Chief of Staff before announcing measures, the standing committees in the House should be installed today, and the Tax Reform Working Group will hold a hearing on international best practices today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2023

Since the beginning of the mandate, some ministers have announced measures without negotiating them internally. For example, the Minister of Social Security, Carlos Lupi, spoke about modifying points of the Social Security Reform proposal. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, and party leader...

Inflation subsides, but drives economic activity lower
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Mar 2023

Monthly inflation in February stood at 0.11%, its lowest level since May 2020, when the price collapse of the first four months of the COVID-19 pandemic ended. However, lunch has not been free, since the fall in inflation has been accompanied by a sharp slowdown in economic activity, which in Jan...

Russia's arms sales fall sharply
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2023

The Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SPRI) published on data March 13 showing that Russia's share of world sales has shrunk since 2018. In the 5 years prior to that Russia sold 22% of all the arms in the world. 2018-22 it sold 16% of all the arms. It is thought that arms sales will fall even m...

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