GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On June 20 President Tokayev said he would like to see a ceasefire in Ukraine and said Kazakhstan would like to help to achieve this. He underscored that Kazakhstan cherishes its relationship with Russia. Russia is an ally of Kazakhstan in the CSTO and a member of the same economic bloc, the Eura...

MNB's Virág is hinting on the future path of rate cuts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response

At today's rate-setting meeting of the MNB, everything went as expected. The Council decided on a uniform 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, the repo rate and reverse FX swaps, leaving the base rate and the low end of the interest rate corridor unchanged. Mainly, the O/N depo rate (= the ...

Fernando Haddad increases in prestige and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Senate is expected to vote on the fiscal framework with edits. Senators are also analyzing Cristiano Zanin's appointment to the STF. The report on Tax Reform may be submitted. The TSE will adjudicate the case that could render former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible for future elections. I...

The CAE will hold a public hearing on the fiscal framework, and the CAE may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate will hold a public hearing today on the new fiscal framework. The Senate will likely conclude the vote on the text this week. Also today, the Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions for 17 sectors of...

Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

When all the empirical evidence indicates that inflation expectations are anchored to the target, the Central Bank will begin a monetary easing cycle. Our objective in this report is not to examine when this cycle will start, but rather what the terminal interest rate will likely be. According to...

Slide presentation - Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2023

Get insight into the the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region with the presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict".

Ramaphosa in Moscow

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023

On June 17 the President of South Africa met Putin. President Ramaphosa was accompanied by the presidents of the Comoros Islands, Zambia and Senegal. Ramaphosa said that the war should end as soon as possible. Ramaphosa's 10-point peace proposal was said by Moscow to be difficult to implement. Ta...

African leaders visit Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023

On June 16 African leaders arrived as a part of a mission to negotiate peace. They are due to travel to Russia. The delegates are the presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros Islands. When they arrived in Kyiv a barrage of missiles hit the city. Ukraine condemned the missile at...

The STF will begin trial on the national nursing salary floor, the Senate should vote on the new fiscal framework next week, and the TSE may decide on former President Bolsonaro’s ineligibility case

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2023

Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will adjudicate in the virtual plenary the case that deals with the nursing salary floor. The trial runs until June 23. In the Senate, it is worth highlighting the progress on the vote on the new fiscal framework. Yesterday, rapporteur Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) sai...

Russian missiles strike Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2023

On June 14 the missiles did little damage. US-supplied air defense systems fended off most Russian missiles. Russia fired Kalibr missiles from a warship. Ukraine claims to have shot them down. Ukraine says 3 people in Odesa were killed by the missile that got through. The United Nations noted tha...

El Salvador Brief: New actions to favor re-election

CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado President Nayib Bukele proposed a reduction in the number of municipalities in El Salvador. The bill was approved on Wednesday, June 14th. Starting March 2024, the country will have 44 local governments compared to 262 nowadays. The name of the municipalities...

More clarity about the MNB's balance sheet and its impact on the government budget

HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

Even though the MNB reports what is called its statistical balance sheet monthly, it is essentially impossible to tell from that by how much the government will have to recapitalise the Bank and when, in view of the latter's losses suffered because of its current sterilisation policy. The reason ...

Uzbekistan: Central bank holds policy rate steady, but sends a dovish signal

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) kept the policy rate unchanged on Jun 15th, but signaled a cut is likely at the next policy meeting. The CBU kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent, but modified its message to signal a good probability that it may ease monetary policy at its next poli...

S&P reported an improvement in Brazil’s rating, Lira highlighted two votes that are important in the House this semester, and Lula will hold a ministerial meeting

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2023

The government celebrated the news that Standard & Poor's reported an improvement in Brazil's BB- rating, from stable to positive. When commenting on the report published by S&P, Haddad recognized the work of the president of the House, Arthur Lira, the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, and the Supreme Fe...

Economic performance in May: mixed results

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an aggregate measure of the country’s economic activity) grew by 4.5% in 5M23 y-o-y, which looks decent. However, in 4M23 and 1Q23, y-o-y growth rates were higher – 5.5% and 5.1%. Amid significant base e...