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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Lula’s victory in the second round, with 50.9% of the valid votes, a difference of only 2.1 million votes, reveals a deeply divided nation. Lula won in the Northeast and Bolsonaro prevailed in the other four regions. The majority of governors elected or reelected come from the opposition, includi...

Russia political/pandemic update: history repeats itself, once again
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Apart from the many unpleasant social, economic, and political effects of the coronavirus pandemic, a few developments gradually affected economic behavior in a rather creative fashion. One of them was that many employers and employees realized that one could do almost the same job without going ...

Lula will meet with the presidents of the House, the Senate and the STF tomorrow, a PEC is being discussed to allow for more public spending next year, and the full transition team will be announced this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Today, Lula will have a meeting with Geraldo Alckmin, who was appointed as coordinator of the transition team. On Tuesday, Lula will be in Brasília. He will have meetings with Lower House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL), Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and Supreme Federal Court President ...

Will fiscal credibility be maintained?
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Netanyahu to form the next government * The right wing/ultra-religious parties received 64 mandates (out of 120) and should have no problem forming a stable coalition. * The fiscal demands of the ultra-orthodox parties include cancelling the tax on soft drinks and disposable utensi...

Will fiscal credibility be maintained?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

Netanyahu to form the next government The right wing/ultra-religious parties received 64 mandates (out of 120) and should have no problem forming a stable coalition. The fiscal demands of the ultra-orthodox parties include cancelling the tax on soft drinks and disposable utensils, as well as incr...

A head full of dreams
TURKEY · Report · 06 Nov 2022

The politics section of the Weekly Tracker is dedicated to a lengthy and personal essay by the politics author, who felt the need to reiterate and defend his elections scenario. A summer bump in the poll standings of Erdogan and the AKP-MHP alliance caused even a majority of pro-opposition commen...

Hungary rejects president Putin's words that it may have territorial claims on Ukraine
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

A short while ago, president Putin was reported as saying that Poland, Romania and Hungary might have territorial claims on Ukraine, as large territories were taken away from these countries earlier, which now belong to Ukraine. The Hungarian Foreign Ministry responded as: "We do not regard as ap...

Industrial producer price inflation decelerates in September, for the first time in the last 12 months
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

Industrial producer prices rose by 1.8% mom, 42.7% yoy in September. The August data was +4.1% mom, +43.4% yoy. One could say that the deceleration was just marginal, as regards the year-on-year data at least. Yet, this was the first time over the last 12 months that a lower yoy number appeared t...

Russia and Iran's relationship deepens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

On November 5 Iran said it sold military drones to Russia but claims that was only before the Russia-Ukraine War began. Western countries have imposed additional sanctions on Iran, claiming that Iran sold drones to Russia in September 2022. Iran and Russia are both suffering from sanctions. They ...

Uncertainty about the Battle of Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2022

On November 4 Putin said that the civilians still in Kherson are being evacuated. He spoke about the shelling and the intensifying fighting.  Putin said that 49,000 of the 318,000 mobilized reservists who were called up in September 2022 have been sent to Ukraine. Open media sources have confirme...

QATAR: S&P upgrades the sovereign back to AA
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Hot on the heels of Moody’s positive outlook on Qatar on Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s has gone one step further and upgraded the sovereign back to AA, its level before all three rating agencies downgraded it by a notch in 2017 for a host of reasons including banking liabilities, the Quartet block...

Habemus tributum
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

After almost two months of discussions, the tax reform of the Petro administration is almost a reality. We say “almost”, because the texts approved by the Senate and the House are not identical, which means that a reconciled version will have to be approved early next week. As we do not expect an...

Spending plan 2023: budget deficit of 20.6% of GDP and huge spending on defense
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

Yesterday, on November 3nd, Verkhovna Rada approved spending plan 2023. It presumes a deficit of 20.6% of GDP or $30.7 billion. Also the plan defines huge spending on defense on the level of $27 billion or 18.2% of GDP (44% of total budget spending). The approved spending plan tells that the defi...

Major growth pressure looms
CHINA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2022

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly driven by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. Investment rose 5.9%, up 0.1 pps from January to August, and has been rising for two consecutiv...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil demand forecasts, Saudi VAT revenue dips unexpectedly, Saudi worries about an Iranian attack
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC hiked its long-term oil demand growth forecasts by about 2m b/d to 110m in 2045. * Gulf states largely mirrored the Fed rate hikes, as usual, bar Kuwait. * The IMF reduced most fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts, e...

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