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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China supports Russia against NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

On February 4 Putin met the Chinese President in Beijing. Putin is there for the start of the Winter Olympics. It was their first in person meeting for almost two years. President Xi refused all face to face meetings until now because of coronavirus.China said that NATO should not let in any more...

Erdogan in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

On February 3 the Turkish President visited Kyiv. He offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has cordial relations with both nations. Despite being a NATO member, Turkey cannot be relied upon to take the side of other NATO countries with regard to Ukraine. Ukraine is not a NATO memb...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE intercepts attacks and announces tax, Dubai Q3 GDP, Oman raising loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Feb 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck to its 400k b/d taper, and oil rose to a new post-2014 high of $93. * PMIs fell slightly in Saudi Arabia and UAE due to Omicron and inflation. * Saudi government deposits at SAMA fell sharply in December, may...

A PEC on the fuels issue was submitted to Congress yesterday, the governors are trying to postpone the discussion on tax reform, and public servants are expected to mobilize in favor of a salary raise again next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2022

Deputy Christino Áureo (PP-RJ) submitted a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) that allows the government to reduce or even zero taxes on all fuels, cooking gas and taxes such as the IPI in 2022 and 2023 – without needing to compensate for the drop in revenue with an increase in other taxes. ...

GDP grew 3.3% in 2021, flash estimate
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

UkrStat, the State Statistics Office, reported 5.9% GDP growth in 4Q 2021. This means that GDP grew 3.3% y/y for the full-year 2021. No details are available so far on the contributors of growth but we know for sure that agro-production was the main driver of GDP jump in the last quarter of the y...

An interview with the Central Bank Governor of the Year
PHILIPPINES · Report · 04 Feb 2022

In March 2019, faced with the untimely death of BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla, President Rodrigo Duterte made the surprise decision to move his budget secretary, Benjamin Diokno, to the BSP. At the time, we wrote: “The Secretary is well regarded as an academic and technocrat whose field of expert...

South Africa’s political future and the ANC’s leadership challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Feb 2022

The greatest threat facing South Africa and its future, that is, besides the obvious current threat of the Covid-19 pandemic facing the entire world, is poor governance and leadership misfit. The majority of South Africa’s population that had lived under Apartheid’s atrocious conditions suddenly ...

Germany closes RT and Russia closes German radio station
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

On February 2 Germany said that RT DE (Russia Today Deutschland) can no longer broadcast because its Serbian license does not authorize it to operate in Germany. RT DE was broadcast in the German language. Germany says that RT DE needs a German license. But why has Germany allowed the channel to ...

Inflation update: A new base year
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released today its new 2018-based consumer price indices, showing a 3% headline inflation rate for January. Although the headline rate looks relatively benign, prices were sharply higher month-on-month, rising 1% between December and January. Most of the ...

Peru's new Cabinet: First reactions
PERU · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022 · 1 response

On Tuesday night President Castillo took oath to the new Cabinet. Of the 19 members, President Castillo changed 10, including the Prime Minister and Finance Minister. The previous Cabinet reached a crisis point when President Castillo decided not to support his Interior Minister, Mr. Avelino Guil...

Budget 2022-23: A push for jobs through construction
INDIA · Report · 03 Feb 2022

One of the most important challenges facing the post-pandemic Indian economy is job loss due to the pandemic. In one initiative, the MSME sector, which employs a large number of people, is being given a helping hand through credit guarantees. In another, job creation is being addressed through a ...

PM Orbán has paid a visit to Moscow this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022

Now that weekly adjustments of the MNB sterilisation rate are off the agenda (at least for now), we can turn to other issues on Thursdays, when otherwise 1-week deposit tenders are held. So our note for today deals with PM Orbán's visit to Mr. Putin two days ago, or more broadly how Hungary's pri...

Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco talk about the tax issue, President Jair Bolsonaro indirectly criticizes former President Lula, and the public servants' salary issue continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2022

Lira recalled that the House voted on PL 2337/2021, which he believes has several merits, including achieving greater tax justice by revoking tax exemptions, instituting a tax on dividends, reducing the corporate tax, and updating the tax brackets for individuals including reducing or eliminating...

Inflation jumps further and has yet to peak
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2022

Consumer prices rose by 11.1%, m/m, in January, somewhat higher than the consensus forecast, with the 12-month rate rising further to 48.7% from 36.1%. Domestic-PPI rose by 10.4%, m/m, surging to a 12-month rate of 93.5% from 79.9% in December (Graph 1; Table 1).

The US deployed troops to Eastern Europe
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022

On February 1 Biden sent 3,000 troops to Romania, Germany and Poland. The US said this is in response to 100,000 Russian troops being on exercises near Ukraine and more Russian troops dispatched to Belarus. There will be major exercises in Belarus on February 10-20, but this is not unusual. The U...

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