GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

As the Western countries decided to cut trade with Russia and oust it from the USD/EUR/GBP/JPY segment of the global financial system, Russian businesses shrugged their shoulders in bewilderment and gradually started looking for alternatives. Despite the various inconveniences caused by the fact ...

Analysis of the fiscal framework in the Senate and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The fiscal framework begins analysis in the Senate. Provisional measures that expire on June 1 may be put to a vote in the House and Senate, including the measure on the structure of the government. We expect the appointment of Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). President Lula me...

Another encouraging growth figure

INDONESIA · Report · 30 May 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q1 2023 GDP growth at 5.03% Y/Y, slightly above the 5.01% annual growth rate of Q4 2022. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy contracted by 0.92%, which followed the normal pattern. The fastest sector of growth in Q1 2023 was transp...

Further tightening will be data dependent

ISRAEL · Report · 30 May 2023

1. Last week the shekel weakened sharply on concerns regarding geopolitical risks and the possible renewed unilateral judicial overhaul. 2. A weaker shekel will translate into higher inflation (we see a 15% pass-through). 3. Unless this trend is reversed, the likelihood of a rate hike in J...

Talks unlikely to restart soon

VENEZUELA · Report · 30 May 2023

Political signals are negative and point to a drawn-out conflict. Political actors are focused inward, trying to bolster their strength in advance of 2024 elections. These elections could end up a repeat of 2018, when the opposition was so fragmented it could not compete, and the government ha...

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Expansion

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

Asked by an interviewer about the reasons for the Central Bank’s “stubbornness” in keeping the interest rate high, Campos Neto responded that a real interest rate for 10 years of around 6% a year has nothing to do with monetary policy, and is instead the fault of fiscal policy. Unfortunately, due...

Further tightening will be data dependent

ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 May 2023

Rates reach 4.75% with mixed signals Last week’s 0.25% hike was in line with expectations on the back of strong economic activity, a tight labor market and sticky/broad-based inflation above target. Following the rate hike, Governor Yaron was interviewed and conveyed a dovish message stating that...

Ready for another five years with the Chief?

TURKEY · In Brief · 28 May 2023 · 1 response

This is the first of several Market Briefs I shall be posting regarding Turkey’s historic election. It is brief and mostly aims at dispensing with the formality of notifying our audience about the results. There are three major uncertainties, which I need to resolve in the coming days in order to...

Russian city hit by drones

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2023

On May 26 Krasnodar was attacked by two drones. This city is the deepest in Russia that Ukraine has attacked. It is 300 km from the border. The Governor of the Region made a statement saying that both drones had crashed and that there were no casualties. It was reported that a Ukrainian drone was...

Who is the bull, and who the matador?

COLOMBIA · Report · 26 May 2023

Most political and technical observers of Congress found the approval of the president’s healthcare reform initiative in the first committee of the House of Representatives disconcerting. The key political parties had expressed deep objections, and initially claimed they’d refuse to support it. B...

Que sera, sera (whatever will be, will be)

TURKEY · Report · 26 May 2023

The politics author shares his latest take on the potential outcome of this Sunday’s runoff, the econ author takes a quick look at the latest reserve developments, among a few other things, and our cosmic strategist shares some thoughts on the ever-growing pressures in the currency market. Ple...

The role of the US dollar in anchoring the global trading system

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 May 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Trade, inflation, retail sales and industrial production data all pointed in the same way in April. China’s much-anticipated “consumption revival” still hasn’t started. All the data suggest that Chinese household income isn’t rising fast enough to ...

The CPMI on the January 8 attacks was installed, the government is working toward preventing the Environment Ministry from losing many of its responsibilities, and the House approved the urgent status of the bill on the demarcation of indigenous lands

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2023

The Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the January 8 attacks was finally installed yesterday. The president of the committee will be Deputy Arthur Maia (União-BA), and the rapporteur will be Senator Elizabeth Gamma (PSD-MA). A number of responsibilities of the Ministry of the Envi...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi warns oil short sellers, S&P expects a balanced Dubai budget, record demand for Adnoc Logistics IPO

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi oil minister warned short sellers as bearish bets on oil reached the highest in over a decade. * Flights resumed between Qatar and Bahrain, and their frequency will increase to at least 6 daily. * $8bn in financ...

Better than expected Q1 GDP does not (yet) override projected stagnation

ARGENTINA · Report · 26 May 2023

The publication of March's economic activity index (EMAE) allows us to calculate a close proxy of the GDP data that will be officially published on June 22. EMAE´s 1.5% y/y growth, taking the 3-month moving average, suggests a significantly better result for Q1 2023 growth than the -0.7% y/y expe...