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UK Defense Minister in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 11 Ben Wallace visited Moscow to meet his Russian analogue. He repeated the warning of other Western leaders that a full scale war between Russia and Ukraine would have grave repercussions.The Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said that tensions in Eastern Europe were not due to Russia....

The South African economy at the beginning of 2022: end of Covid-19 fourth wave and more vaccinated, but low confidence persists
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Feb 2022

• South African Tourism: Tourism is an important sector of the South African economy (it contributed 3.7% to total GDP in 2019) and it has been one of the sectors most adversely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Encouragingly, there was an increase in gross travel receipts in the third quarter...

The Federal budget posted a surplus in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues reached nearly R2.1 trln in January and were nearly 39% higher than in January 2021. These revenues accounted for 8.3% of the annual plan, i.e., exactly one-twelfth of it. Note, that tax collection in January is traditionally low a...

GULF WEEKLY: IEA says Gulf could pump more, Aramco could list more equity, PIF could issue after being rated
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Feb 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As oil continues to rise, the IEA hinted that the Gulf could make up for shortfalls elsewhere in OPEC+. * Iran nuclear talks reconvened in Vienna amidst expectations that a deal is no more than a few weeks away. * Omicro...

Inflation now the main concern
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 11 Feb 2022

Inflation ended 2021 at 8.5%, its second highest level since the banking crisis of 2003-2004, but below the 10.65% of 2008, when the price of WTI oil increased 37.7% to $99.56 a barrel. Episodes of high inflation in the DR are generally associated with sharp oil price increases, and 2021 was no e...

The PEC on fuels is the main focus in Brasilia, the STF will review the overturning of a Petrobras labor conviction, and Lula is expected to meet with economists to discuss his economic plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2022

Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said that he will negotiate for the government's PEC on fuel to be absorbed by PLP 11, which is being analyzed in the Senate. Bolsonaro said that the PEC will certainly be unanimously approved in the House and Senate. Rodrigo Pacheco, Jean Paul Prates and leaders will meet to ...

CPI-inflation, core inflation sharply up in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

Unfortunately, those analysts (including us), who expected the yoy headline rate to move upwards in January have proven right. But even they (including us again) were negatively surprised by how sharply the headline rate actually jumped, to 7.9% yoy from the previous two months' 7.4% yoy level. T...

Russia and Ukraine at a negotiating impasse
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 11 the Russian delegate said that talks in Berlin had not achieved an agreement. The Ukrainian delegate confirmed this. There were 9 hours of talks on February 10. Germany and France are brokering the talks despite being partial towards Ukraine. The four countries are called the Norma...

China cements relations with Russia and Central Asia at the Olympics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 4 the Winter Olympics opened in China. The presidents of Russia and all the Central Asian countries attended. No Western leader was there. The West is signaling its displeasure at Uyghurs being locked up in re-education centers.The Olympics is an unmissable opportunity for these leade...

President Ramaphosa's Statement of National Address (SONA) 2022: More of the Same Correct Analysis, Promises of Reforms, and holding the fiscal line
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022 · 1 response

In his 2-hour SONA, President Ramaphosa delivered a detailed economy-centric speech to the Parliament. Whilst reiterating his administration's commitment to the Constitutional Democracy, he articulated his market-friendly economic ideology more crisply than ever before. "Government does not creat...

UK Foreign Minister in Moscow makes no progress
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

On February 10 Liz Truss met her Russian counterpart in Moscow. They both openly acknowledged that relations are strained. Truss said that Russia must desist from Cold War rhetoric and massing troops near Ukraine. Lavrov accused NATO of aggression and russophobic hysteria. Truss embarrassed herse...

The recovery will slow, but at least an inflationary explosion can be avoided
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Feb 2022

​After long negotiations, the staff of the IMF and Minister Martín Guzman reached an understanding on the path for the primary fiscal deficit and the monetary assistance of the Central Bank to the Treasury that will be the core of a program. The government hopes the program will be supported by t...

Economic performance wasn’t too bad in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Despite some noise about the vulnerability and the weakness of the Russian economy, which often appears in the media (especially at times of shocks), the country’s economic performance didn’t look bad either in 2020 or 2021. Having contracted by 2.7% in 2020, it looks as though economic growth wa...

The XP/Ipespe presidential poll will be published today, Gilberto Kassab said the PSD will have a presidential candidate, and the PEC on fuels unlikely to have been well received in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2022

Today, a new XP/Ipespe poll on the presidential election will be published. The poll began on Monday, February 7, and ended yesterday, February 9. In the previous poll, carried out on January 24 and 25, Lula had 44% of voters’ intentions and Bolsonaro, 24%. The president of the PSD, Gilberto Kass...

January CPI-inflation due tomorrow: upside risks are significant
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Latest monthly readings for the yoy headline rate were 7.4% both in November and December, so that the latter represented a negative surprise. E.g. the MNB expected 7% yoy for December in its Q4 inflation forecast, which was published in the middle of that same month. But private sector analysts ...

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