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Negative global and domestic shocks slow the South African economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Nov 2022 · 2 responses

Households: Consumption expenditure by households has been one of the key drivers of the South African economy’s recovery from the Covid-19-induced recession. Although household consumption is expected to remain a key driver for growth, this is expected to be at a lesser extent than during the pe...

VP Geraldo Alckmin made a statement reaffirming the next government’s commitment to fiscal responsibility, Davi Alcolumbre is positioning himself to run for president of the Senate, and Lula will arrive in Brazil this weekend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2022

Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin gave an interview saying that the future government will cut expenses that can be cut. He spoke in favor of reviewing contracts – all of them – to find resources. He also placed Tax Reform as a central issue for the new government. Davi Alcolumbre, who was pre...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

Strong demand for cash from the household sector combined with increased issuance activity of the Finance Ministry fueled demand for refinancing in CBR. The overall amount of REPO loans exceeded R1.7 trln. Despite that, RUONIA moved well above the key rate level in the first half of the month. Gi...

Dutch court convicts 3 men for downing Air Malaysia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

On November 17 the court found 2 Russians and 1 pro-Moscow Ukrainian were found guilty in absentia of shooting down the civilian airliner in 2014. This resulted in the deaths of 298 people on MH17.One defendant was acquitted. The court found that the plane was shot down on purpose but that the gu...

The Transition PEC was submitted yesterday, and the proposal will likely be changed before approval
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2022

Finally, the transition team presented the text of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to the National Congress. In fact, it is very unlikely that Congress will approve the measure in the terms proposed by the government. There is consensus on removing Bolsa Família from the sp...

Ukraine grain deal extended
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

On November 17 the United Nations and Ukraine said the deal whereby Ukrainian food is exported through the Black Sea has been given a 120 day extension. Turkey is vital in this because the ships carrying the food will pass through the Bosphorous Strait which is a Turkish waterway flowing through ...

GDP down 4.0% y-o-y in 3Q22, weekly inflation remains subdued
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that the country's GDP was down by 4.0% in 3Q22 according to its flash estimate. No other details have been published. If so, then it means that seasonally adjusted Q-o-Q GDP didn't increase in 3Q22. It also means that in 9M22, GDP could be down by 1.7% y-o-y implying that in 202...

BSP matches US Fed rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

The Monetary Board formally approved today the 75bp increase in the BSP’s set of policy rates that Governor Felipe Medalla announced two weeks ago. The increase brings the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 5%. In his statement, Governor Medalla acknowledged that the action is aggressive but ne...

Little Gulf bond issuance is expected in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 16 Nov 2022

After quadrupling their debt burden since 2014, the Gulf states are largely pausing new borrowing due to non-oil fiscal reforms, the oil windfall and higher borrowing costs. Oman and Qatar are even actively deleveraging. Sovereign external debt security issuance has dipped from an average of $40b...

Russia refuses Ukraine's conditions for peace talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2022

On November 15 Russia said that Ukraine's basis for peace talks were unrealistic and unsatisfactory. The Russian Foreign Minister falsely claimed that Ukraine had outright refused peace talks. Ukraine has a 10-point peace plan. This included guarantees for security and a court to try alleged Russ...

Growth with Fiscal Discipline Against a Backdrop of a Weak Global Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

Just like in his first term, starting in 2003, the results of Lula’s term beginning in 2023 will depend on two conditions: a) the behavior of the international economy; and b) overcoming the challenge imposed by the fiscal situation. The main differences are that in 2003, the international econom...

Power grids attacked; Kherson liberated; plans for 2023
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Nov 2022

The liberation of Kherson in mid-November was a turning point in Russia’s war. In February, everyone wondered how quickly Ukraine would fall, but through spring the key element was the ability of Ukraine’s Armed Forces to withstand Russia’s “artillery firewall.” By summer, everyone was wondering ...

The Transition PEC may be submitted today, the PL may still question the results of the election, and Lula is in Egypt for the COP27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

A meeting is scheduled for today between Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), rapporteur of the Budget and the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), and party leaders. The PEC may still be submitted today. Yesterday, a document regarding electronic voting machines requested by the PL wa...

Table of Six summit: More good than bad news
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The leaders of six opposition parties constituting the main stream opposition, dubbed the Table of Six (ToS) met for 8 hours on Monday night, to discuss a new constitution, joint economic program and coalition formation, as well as the implications of the tragic terror strike in Beyoglu, Istanbul...

Polish media claims Poland was hit by Russian missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

On November 15 a Polish media outlet claimed that two Russian missiles hit Poland near the Ukraine border, killing two people. Poland called an emergency meeting of its security council. The government has not officially claimed that Poland was hit by Russian missiles. It could have been Ukrainia...

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