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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Positive fiscal surprises mask threatening increases in spending
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Feb 2022

Deficit numbers for 2021 came in substantially below the previous round of government projections; the same happened with debt. Minister Restrepo hinted at even better results when definitive 2021 GDP numbers come out in mid-February. The context Restrepo provided prior to releasing the defici...

​HEADS UP: Anger spills out to the streets
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Rising poverty in Turkey has been a constant theme in our reports since the beginning of 4Q2021. New Year wage, salary and pension hikes soothed some of the pain of national impoverishment. Erdogan than committed another mistake by allowing regulated prices to be hiked faster than disposable inco...

What a mess
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Feb 2022

How to shrink the current 20-plus presidential pool to five, and then two? That is the point of the three rounds of voting on March 13th, May 29th and June 19th. Indeed, poll leaders Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández will have an almost sure spot in the first round. Next comes Oscar Iván Zuluag...

Looser monetary policy plus investment will bring stability
CHINA · Report · 07 Feb 2022

GDP rose 8.1% y/y in 2021, up 10.6% from 2019. But industrial growth declined across quarters, indicating further growth pressure, especially when Omicron outbreaks are leading to frequent lockdowns in cities. Investment grew only 4.9%, far less than in normal years. Consumption is weak. Socia...

Lula may have the most TV and radio time and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Congress meets on Tuesday to review presidential vetoes. The rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Roberto Rocha, may submit his report to the CCJ of the Senate. The fuel issue remains on the agenda in the Executive and Legislative branches. The Genial/Quaest and XP/Ipespe polls on the president...

Inflation, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank did what it had announced at the previous meeting, raising the SELIC rate by 1.5 percentage points, to 10.75%. Although it announced that at the next meeting the increase will be smaller, against a backdrop of stubborn inflation and unanchoring of expec...

High inflation could warrant surprise Central Bank move
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2022

In January 2022, CPI annual inflation was 6.94%, surpassing the 6.31% expected by the respondents to the Central Bank survey. Food, increase of 19.94%, however 186 of the 188 classes of goods and services had price increases. So, it is a widespread phenomenon that goes well beyond food (see Table...

Politics: Main political agendas of the major branches and political players for the coming months
MEXICO · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Aside from President López Obrador’s three remaining “structural” reform proposals, which are very relevant for his project, there are not too many major agenda points for the current session of Congress that got underway February 1 and concludes at the end of April. However, there is a massive b...

Congress is expected to review presidential vetoes this week, the fuels issue remains on the agenda, and two new polls on the presidential election are to be published
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

One of the vetoes that may be overturned is the one on the Budget. In all, the Bolsonaro government vetoed R$ 3.184 billion in expenditures approved by legislators. The rapporteur of the bill supports overturning this veto. Another veto refers to the bill that allowed the renegotiation of debts o...

Turkey Covid Watch - February 7, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Since our last Covid Watch (of January 24, 2022), cases continued to rise, to reach new highs. Average cases rose to 101.7K on Sunday. Despite daily infections reaching record levels, however, there has been no changes in the regulatory environment.

Economics: Latest batch of labor market indicators rounds out the 2022 economic outlook
MEXICO · Report · 07 Feb 2022

At a time when the economy is stalling – after having failed to produce any growth in the last two quarters of 2021 – and inflation continues to climb, the labor market has been emitting mixed signals. In line with indicators we have previously analyzed that appeared to foreshadow a more anemic e...

Tightening labor market and strong growth support higher rates
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Feb 2022

1. Despite Omicron, economic data in January was generally positive, including the latest business survey and employment growth. 2. Credit growth was rapid in 2021, especially household credit for housing, and this will increasingly become a consideration for monetary policy. 3. We ...

All about the elections
TURKEY · Report · 06 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The politics section of this report is entirely dedicated to the possibility of early elections because this is the “only talk of the town”. We start by revisiting our 2022 baseline political scenario, which remains broadly intact, with only minor revisions. The next section cites circumstanti...

Tightening labor market and strong growth support higher rates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

The business sector survey reflects fairly strong growth in January (except for hotels); the outlook ahead is generally positive. This print is surprisingly strong in light of the peak of the Omicron wave.Wage growth remains moderate Wage growth is averaging 3.4% annual over the past two years, m...

Industry and retail sales data: good news on growth
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

Monthly data for December appear quite good from the growth perspective. Industrial output growth rose to 3.6% yoy, after 2.2% yoy in November and negative figures in the preceding two months. Indeed, this was the best figure seen since July, the last month of the initial post-Covid recovery phas...

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