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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China’s shadow stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Feb 2022

Many analysts are predicting a large economic stimulus in 2022, in the form of lower interest rates, further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), an expansion of monetary policy, or other means. However, Beijing is so far holding off on a major stimulus program. There is a consistent worr...

Macron in Moscow and Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

On February 9 the French President visited Putin and Zelensky. Putin promised that Russia would not escalate the situation. But this leaves open the possibility of Russia's raising the stakes if someone else escalates. Macron now says it is possible that Russia and Ukraine will negotiate anew.Put...

Surprisingly good fiscal news is positive for the bond market
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

The fiscal deficit continues to move rapidly lower, reaching 3.3% GDP LTM in January from 4.5% in December 2021. The fiscal surplus reached 18.5bn ILS in January (in part seasonal). Tax revenues continue to expand rapidly, up 39% in January y/y! mostly due to a surge in revenues from corporate ta...

Consumer inflation spikes 1.3% m/m in January, above expectations
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Consumer inflation was reported +1.3% m/m or +10.0% y/y, which is almost twice faster than we expected for January. Twice-stronger food prices (+2.5% m/m in January vs. +1.2% m/m we estimated) on the back of an upsurge in prices for vegetables (+20.5% m/m) was the main reason for that strong cons...

Fiscal package expect to have a modest impact on inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

The government presented yesterday a series of fiscal measures aimed at reducing the cost of living and improving disposable income, including reducing import tariffs on a series of consumer goods and raw materials, reducing the price increase of electricity, subsidizing afternoon kindergarten ca...

Azerbaijan returns 8 POWs to Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022

Baku returned the soldiers who were taken prisoner in 2021. Azerbaijan said it freed the men out of humanitarianism. A French plane went to Baku to collect the Armenians and bring them back to Armenia. France is the most pro-Armenian country in Europe and has a small but vocal Armenian ethnic com...

Former German Chancellor to be put on board of Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022

On February 4 Gazprom put Gerhard Schroeder on its list of approved candidates for its board of directors. Schroeder is expected to replace the son-in-law of Nursultan Nazarbayev. The former President of Kazakhstan has had his wing clipped since January 2022. Many of his cronies have been demoted...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022

In early February, the ruble moved to below R/$ 75, having traveled to over R/$80 at the end of January. As Russia and some leaders of NATO member countries are now engaged in discussions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “scheduled” by a group of enthusiasts in the Western countries, looks now less...

Estimated current account surplus hits record in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022

The Russian Central bank published its flash estimate of the main elements of the country’s balance of payments. The current account surplus reached $19bn, while the trade balance widened to $21.4bn. It was greater by more than a factor of two compared to the same numbers reported in January 2021...

The Genial/Quaest presidential poll will be published today, the TSE approved the creation of the União Brasil party, and the CADE meets today to analyze the sale of Oi to TIM, Vivo and Claro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2022

The new Genial/Quaest presidential poll was carried out last week, from February 3-6. The results should be similar to other recent polls, with Lula in the lead, followed by Jair Bolsonaro, and third candidates trailing behind. The distance between them should be lower due to the beginning of the...

EU asks Azerbaijan to sell more gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022

On February 4 the EU's Energy Commissioner went to Baku to ask Azerbaijan to proffer more gas. The EU is heavily reliant on Russian gas. Some EU states get 100% of their gas from Russia. The Commissioner met President Aliyev. The EU Commissioner Kadri Simson hailed the cordial relations between B...

Costa Rica: Undecided voters upset the election results again
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Feb 2022

On February 6, 2022, 25 candidates were in the running in the presidential election, while 36 parties ran for Congress. Four years before, those figures were much lower, at 13 and 25, respectively. Surveys have shown high volatility and important differences among them. A second runoff election w...

Dovish comments by Deputy Governor Abir weaken the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022

BoI Deputy Governor Abir succeeded in reducing expectations for an imminent rate hike. Today, the shekel weakened by 0.8% against the basket of currencies following an interview (Globes) with Abir who stated that even if inflation exceeds 3% y/y in the short run, the BoI thinks it will come back ...

Past the peak of the Omicron wave?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022

Some indicators seem to suggest that the peak of the local 5th (Omicron) wave of Covid has been just passed, whereas others, normally lagged indicators, have not shown any sign of improvement yet. Two things are for sure, anyway: hospitalisation and death rates are very much lower with Omicron th...

Congressional party leaders meet to discuss presidential vetoes, Ministry of Economy’s Special Secretary of Treasury and Budget and the Chief of Staff had a meeting, and the Human Rights Committee of the Senate approved summoning the Minister of Health
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2022

Members of Congress are pressing to overturn the vetoes on the Refis for micro and small companies, the Budget, the BR do Mar and Eletrobras, among others. The topic of discussion between the Special Secretary of the Treasury and Budget and the Chief of Staff was the tax exemption for fuels. Ther...

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