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A massive police operation in Rio left more than 60 dead, latest polls show 30% of voters cited violence as their top concern, and the Chief of Staff and Minister Lewandowski are traveling to Rio to meet with Governor Castro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2025

A massive police operation against the Comando Vermelho criminal faction in Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday left more than 60 people dead. According to Governor Cláudio Castro (PL), 81 suspects were arrested. The raid is being described as the deadliest police operation in Rio’s history. According to t...

Israel’s labor market remains tight, may keep monetary easing on hold
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Oct 2025

Three key indicators released this week confirm that Israel’s labor market remains tight. The number of job vacancies rose slightly in September to 146.9 thousand, the highest level ever recorded, with most of the increase coming from trade and manufacturing sectors. The unemployment rate remaine...

Lula faces two pending issues upon his return from Asia, Senator Calheiros should submit his report on the income tax exemption bill, and Anfavea reps will meet with the VP to discuss semiconductor shortages in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2025

President Lula returns to Brazil today after a seven-day trip to Asia. Upon his return, he faces two pending issues. The first concerns alternative measures to offset the expiration of MP 1,303/25 and the second involves choosing a replacement for Justice Luís Roberto Barroso on the Supreme Feder...

Trump’s turn on Russia sanctions marks a new stage in the war
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Oct 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump has finally taken a step toward tightening sanctions on Russia, after nine months of flip-flopping, by slapping sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil exporters, Lukoil and Rosneft. We are not overly enthusiastic about this move, since it’s quite possible that within a ...

Economics: The latest IGAE figures project further slowing in the third quarter and stagnation for 2025
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2025

IGAE figures for August show a weak economy with deterioration in the second half of the year, as this index registered zero growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate for the month, after falling -1.2% in July. This implies that, on average, the economy fell -0.6% at an annual rate in July-Augu...

Politics: The 4T moves to further restrict the power and independence of the judicial system
MEXICO · Report · 27 Oct 2025

In the ongoing battle to defend the role and independence of the judicial branch of government, the latest front involves the legislative decision to amend the Amparo Law. Those in favor of reforming the Amparo Law charge that it has been used to shield the rich and powerful, especially high-end ...

The Lula-Trump meeting and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2025

President Lula is returning to Brazil this week and may announce his appointee to replace Justice Luís Roberto Barroso on the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants convicted for the attempted coup are filing appeals before the STF. The Senate’s Ec...

The force awakens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2025

The decline in the trade surplus since last year has been driven by rising imports, in line with the expansion of domestic demand. On the export side, however, relevant shifts have been observed among different trading partners. China has lost ground due to falling prices of the main commodities ...

Lula met with Trump on Sunday, today is the deadline for Bolsonaro to file a motion for clarification, and the House will hold a concentrated voting session for important bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2025

President Lula met with U.S. President Donald Trump. The meeting went well, and Brazil’s business community viewed it with moderate optimism. The main outcome was a tariff truce. Today, October 27, marks the deadline for former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven other defendants convicted by...

New US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil unlikely to thwart Hungary's oil imports from Russia in short term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2025 · 1 response

There seems to be some lack of certainty about the likely short-term consequences of the new US sanctions on Hungary's oil imports from Russia. We stress short-term, because the long-term prospect is that EU policies keep systematically moving towards eventually, and most probably within two year...

Looser monetary policy, tighter politics
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2025 · 1 response

The politics section starts not with the acquittal of CHP from charges of a rigged convention, but charges of espionage about removed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who will have given testimony on Sunday. There is a non-negligible probability that a court will determine strong suspicion of him b...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rebounds on Russian sanctions, US & Qatar warn EU over LNG, Kuwait portfolio flows spike in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded to nearly $67 as a result of new US and EU sanctions on Russia. * The IMF hiked its GCC oil GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.2% and for non-oil to 3.8%. * Saudi gigaproject awards so far this year have ...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 24, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Oct 2025

The past week marked the near completion of the first phase of the Trump peace plan, including a fragile ceasefire, the return of all surviving hostages and the bodies of about 15 of the 28 killed, large-scale humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a partial Israeli withdrawal to the “yellow line.” U.S. a...

Lula will meet with Trump on Sunday, the government should submit revenue-boosting bills to Congress, and the deadline for Bolsonaro to file a motion for clarification expires on Monday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2025

President Lula will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday in Malaysia. The Brazilian government hopes to make progress in negotiations over the sanctions imposed on Brazil. In the coming days, the government will send Congress a bill to tax betting companies, fintechs, and interest on e...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Uzbekistan poised to close the chapter on fiscal profligacy?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Oct 2025

Wading through the 138 pages of Uzbekistan’s 2026–2028 Fiscal Strategy is a test of endurance, and of language skills, since the document exists only in Uzbek. However, it is very much worth the effort as it provides a glimpse into government's thinking about the fiscal envelope in the next coupl...

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