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Pension fund withdrawal likely
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Congress' Economic, Banking, Finance and Financial Intelligence Commission has drafted a new law authorizing a new withdrawal from workers' pension funds. It proposes that those workers that had not been contributors until December 31st, 2023, can withdraw up to 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias...

Public sector cash flow and the IMF Article IV Report update
PANAMA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

In 2024, the public sector faces a projected 3.9% decline in total revenues due to the absence of significant one-time occurrences from the previous year, while primary expenditures are expected to rise by 8.6%. This increase is primarily driven by growth in current expenditure, particularly payr...

Lula's challenges and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

The government may submit a new bill to Congress on the Perse program and payroll tax relief for municipalities. The STJ should adjudicate the inclusion of energy tariffs in the calculation of the ICMS. Mauro Vieira talks about the government's foreign policy. This week's Talking Points: ...

What Can Be Expected from the External Sector in 2024
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

With the increasing importance of imports of cryptoassets and small value transactions, considered in the trade balance that integrates the Balance of Payments calculated by the Central Bank, the estimates need to be carried out with care. The traditional trade balance of imports, estimated by th...

The tax collections lull comes to an end
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

February inflation (1.2 percent) adds one more month to the disinflation trend recorded since October 2023. This monthly rate is the lowest since August 2012 and puts year-on-year inflation into double digits for the first time since April 2015. The improvement stems from nominal bolivar apprecia...

A bit of clarification on the ongoing conflict between the government and the MNB may be useful
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response

This morning (March 11), the MNB has made an announcement on its website, claiming that Bloomberg had communicated false news and wrong conclusions about the MNB and the relationship between PM Orbán and governor Matolcsy. The MNB stressed that the Prime Minister and the Governor continue to be i...

Polls reflect drop in government’s approval ratings, the House continues to elect presidencies of the permanent committees, and the STJ may adjudicate the case on the calculation of the ICMS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

Last week, polls from three institutes (IPEC, Atlas, and Quaest/Genial) showed a drop in the government's ratings and raised concerns, especially due to the upcoming municipal elections. With this, President Lula is expected to hold a ministerial meeting next Monday, March 18. Also this week, the...

Deficit could undershoot on robust tax revenues
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Mar 2024

1. February witnessed further expansion in expenditure due to the war, while tax revenues remained stable. 2. Business sector activity continues to recover, while consumer confidence remains suppressed. 3. Israel’s issuance abroad will take some pressure off the domestic bond market.

Fiscal deficit pushes higher despite robust tax revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Mar 2024

The fiscal deficit reaches 5.6% GDP LTM The fiscal cost of the war in the first two months reached 17.3bn ILS (0.9% GDP), including most civilian support due to the war. Total expenditures are up by 44% y/y in Jan-Feb. Tax revenues surprised on the upside, reflecting stability y/y in real terms. ...

It's crunch time, again
TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...

Banking activities rising despite high interest rates?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2024

Contrary to the expectations of many, the Philippine economy sustained its expansion at 5.6% in 2023 from an extremely robust growth of 7.6% in 2022. Indeed, this was lower than the official target of 6% - 7% and what is required to recover its previous growth path prior to the pandemic of 2020. ...

Zelensky delivers peace plan to Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

On March 8 Zelensky held talks with the Turkish President. The two discussed the war, joint military manufacturing and Ukrainian food exports crossing the Black Sea. This is of interest to Turkey since it buys Ukrainian grain and the rest passes through Turkish waters. Turkey is building corvette...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, PIF gets more Aramco stock, Qatar surplus vs Kuwait deficit, Egypt devalues currency
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ extended its additional voluntary cuts for at least another quarter until June. * Hopes faded for a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza, and the Houthis attacks headed up in the Red Sea. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to ...

Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...

Webinar Replay: Gulf Countries Regional Outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

What is next for OPEC+ in its 8th year of cuts? Is fiscal policy trending procyclical again? What are the risks to the GCC from regional conflicts? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our "Gulf Countries Regional Outlook" webinar.