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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Members of Congress obstructed legislative activity yesterday, Trump’s tariffs take effect today, and the federal government may announce countermeasures today or tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2025

The Liberal Party (PL), along with representatives from União Brasil, the Progressita Party (PP), and the Republicanos, obstructed legislative activity in both the Lower House and the Senate. The effectiveness of the opposition’s obstruction strategy still hinges on whether other centrist parties...

Macro thoughts
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Aug 2025 · 2 responses

It’s been a calm summer thus far, relatively speaking, despite an uneasy and uncertain political backdrop. The latter is likely to stay so indefinitely, we think, which should start taking a toll on the economy and markets, come late this year/early next. Economic activity has generally held u...

Justice Moraes placed Bolsonaro under house arrest, the opposition is threatening to obstruct votes in the Senate, and VP Alckmin confirmed Brazil will take the tariff issue to the WTO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2025

Yesterday, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes placed former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) under house arrest. According to Moraes, the decision was made because Bolsonaro used the social media accounts of his allies to disseminate messages that “clearly encouraged and incited...

Israeli geopolitics: August 2025—dangerous stalemates on all fronts
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Aug 2025

Key takeaways from this report: Gaza ceasefire talks remain stalled: Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have collapsed over core disputes, including the extent of Israeli withdrawal, a commitment to ending the war, and the scope of prisoner exchanges. Efforts by mediators continue, but no b...

A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part II: External issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Aug 2025

This report completes the analysis begun in our July 22, 2025 report regarding Argentina’s main economic and financial issues 19 months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration can accomplish for the remainder ...

Wage growth slows in Israel in June; real wages continue to decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025 · 1 response

The average nominal wage for all workers increased by 2.1% over the past year (based on original data through June), and by 2.5% among Israeli workers only. When seasonally adjusted, wages likely rose at a rate of about 3%, which is still considered relatively low (below the increase of inflation...

Economics: The latest public finance results are favorable but insufficient to halt debt growth as Pemex continues to deteriorate financially
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025

The evolution of public finances in the first half of 2025 and Pemex’s recently released operating results for the second quarter of 2025 point to a complex outlook for macroeconomic stability and the Mexican economy’s medium-term prospects. Government finances continued to deliver favorable resu...

Dispute with the U.S. reshapes the 2026 chessboard and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

Congress resumes its legislative work this week with a packed agenda for the second half of the year, including key issues such as the Income Tax Reform, regulation of the broader Tax Reform, and a provisional measure increasing taxes on financial investments and betting platforms. President Lula...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

OVERVIEW UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME The 50% tariff rise on U.S. imports of Brazilian products caused a rupture in diplomatic relations between the two countries, triggering the most acute political and economic crisis since Brazil’s redemocratization. Following Trump’s election,...

Politics: Scandal puts ties between politicians and organized crime under the spotlight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025

A major scandal has erupted in Mexico with far-reaching short, medium, and long-term consequences. On July 12, General Miguel Ángel Martínez revealed that there is an outstanding arrest warrant for Hernán Bermúdez Requena, former Secretary of Public Security of Tabasco. He is charged with crimina...

Bolsonaro’s supporters held demonstrations across the country, Congress resumes activity this week, and Trump’s tariffs are set to take effect on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) held demonstrations in several cities on Sunday, August 3. President Lula (PT) and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes were the primary targets of the protests. Congress resumes its activity this week amid a tense political atmosphere and a...

Again better than expected, but still quite sticky
TURKEY · Report · 04 Aug 2025 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.1%, m/m, in July (vs consensus forecasts of around 2.4%), with the 12-month CPI rate declining further to 33.5%, from 35.1% in June. Monthly PPI inflation was 1.7% in the month, which led to a slight easing in the 12-month PPI rate to 24.2%, from 24...

Inflation likely remains elevated for the rest of the year, prompting no rate cuts from NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation decelerated m-o-m from 0.8% in June to 0.7% in July. However, the y-o-y price index remained unchanged at 11.8%. Services prices grew y-o-y by 14.9% (down from 16.1% in June), food prices were up by 11.2% (up from 10.6% in June), and the n...

Moody’s Ratings raises the credit rating of the Dominican Republic from “Ba3+” to “Ba2” with a stable outlook.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

According to a statement released by the Ministry of Finance and Economy, Moody’s considers that “high political stability—especially in comparison with other Ba-rated countries and regional peers—helps the Dominican Republic attract consistently high levels of foreign direct investment, increase...

The budget was published today, but the Legislature won’t analyze it until next week (hopefully)
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025 · 1 response

The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) presented its draft of the 2026 General State Budget to the plenary of the National Assembly last Wednesday. However, legislative committees have not yet been formed. This delay is due to internal disputes among political parties over control of key commi...

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