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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2024

Aug 7 President: Mr. Tokayev approved the national development plan until 2029. According to the document, Kazakhstan's GDP in 2029 should reach $450 bln (vs $225 bln in 2023). GDP per capita in 2029 is targeted at $21,1K (in 2023 - $13,3K). The share of expenditures on food products as a percent...

Interim Results of the Kursk Operation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Aug 2024

More than two weeks have passed since Ukrainian forces began the Kursk operation. The dust has settled a bit, and we now have a clearer picture of what has happened. In short, the Russians have concentrated all their forces on the Avdiivka area (now referred to as the Pokrovsk direction), while U...

Moraes has ordered an investigation into the scandal in his office at the TSE, Congress is working on formalizing an agreement on fund transfers, and a poll on the municipal elections in São Paulo was published
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2024

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes has ordered the opening of an investigation into the exchange of messages between his office's advisors and former aides who worked with him at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Today, expert Eduardo Tagliaferro is scheduled to testify at ...

Pacheco said Congress will present a solution to the parliamentary fund transfer issue, the Senate approved the payroll tax relief bill, and Pacheco said the Tax Reform bill’s urgent status will need to be removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2024

After a meeting between representatives of the three branches of government, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco stated that the National Congress will present, within 10 days, a definitive solution regarding the execution of parliamentary fund transfers. This announcement helps to reduce the politi...

Are Philippine flood problems being addressed with inappropriate solutions?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Aug 2024

An answer seems emerging to the question Filipinos ask every year without fail during typhoon season—how long should we have to wait until the flooding problem is finally solved? In Metropolitan Manila, at least, it would take 23 years. Yes, 23 years! This is no exaggeration considering that this...

Boluarte’s bid for popularity fails; economy slows, but should grow 2.8% in 2024; BCRP likely to cut 25bp per month until December
PERU · Report · 20 Aug 2024

We discuss three topics in this report. We begin with President Dina Boluarte‘s recent failed attempt to boost her popularity. We next consider the June real GDP report from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI, the national statistical institute), which confirms a sharp econ...

The 2024 Elections: With the formation of the GNU, the left is realigning
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Aug 2024

Last Thursday, August 15, Mr. Floyd Shivambu, the co-founder and Deputy Commander-in-Chief (The Party Leader) of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), resigned from the party and announced he would join the MKP (uMkhonto weSizwe Party). The announcement is yet another “aftershock” of the May 2024 ...

Senator Wagner may present a new draft of the payroll tax exemption bill, government leaders meet to discuss Justice Dino’s injunction on parliamentary fund transfers, and the CNE holds a protest in front of the AGU
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2024

Senator Jaques Wagner may present a new draft of the bill that deals with the reduction of payroll tax exemptions. The government's goal is to try to vote on the bill this week. A meeting is scheduled today between the President of the STF, Luís Roberto Barroso, and the Presidents of the Senate, ...

On hold, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 20 Aug 2024

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate at 50% today, as expected. Today’s statement also differs relatively little from the July statement (here and here, respectively), but now: i) more emphasis is placed on the alignment of expectations and pricing behavior with inflation projections, which “has gai...

Economics: Banxico cut of reference rate can be considered premature
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2024 · 1 response

As mentioned in last week's edition of the Economic Outlook, the Banco de México's Board of Governors decided at its August 8 meeting to lower the reference rate from 11% to 10.75%, with three votes in favor and two against. This occurred in the context of the recent publication of the July 2024 ...

The fund transfer issue is hurting the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The Senate is making another attempt to vote on the payroll tax relief bill. A new report will be presented next week. The House's Committee on Economic Affairs (CAE) continues with public hearings to discuss the regulation of the Tax Reform (PLP No. 68/24). This week's Talking Points: ...

"Eppur Si Muove"
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2024

Economic activity has displayed resilience in the face of the catastrophe in the South and continues to pose a challenge for inflation. Manufactures output has presented robust results since December but is subject to increasing unit labor costs, that is, real wages growing ahead of productivity,...

Politics: Implications of AMLO’s laissez-faire attitude towards cartels for security and future relations with Washington
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2024

Following last week’s discussion of President López Obrador's legacy in terms of the assets and liabilities for governance he bequeaths the next presidential administration, we are expanding our focus to the main issues on the national agenda, starting with the further erosion of the already tenu...

Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...

President Abinader announces a broad reform agenda, as he’s sworn in for his second term
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Aug 2024

During his August 16th swearing in ceremony for his second term, President Luis Abinader promised to implement a broad agenda of economic, social and political reforms that would make the Dominican Republic a developed country, with a strong democracy and a fair economy that would solve people's ...

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