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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Russian diamonds lose their shine for Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jul 2024

We argued recently that the heady GDP growth that Armenia has been posting since last Nov can be almost exclusively attributed to the trade in Russian diamonds. In particular, we tracked it down to the exponential increase in diamond trade over the axis of Russia-Armenia-UAE/Hong Kong, which, in...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells bonds, Adnoc signs up LNG investors, Pezeshkian wins Iran’s presidency
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jul 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate former health minister, won Iran’s presidential election. * Aramco sold $6bn in 10 to 40-year bonds at tight spreads. * Saudi Arabia raised a further $1bn from the Aramco equity sale through ...

Balance of payments holds steady in 2Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus amounted to $18.0 bln in 2Q24, which was not as much as in 1Q24 but still enough to secure a $40.6 bln current account surplus in 1H24. The trade balance reached $67.8 bln and was almost the same in both quarters ($33.8 bln and $34.0 bln). Monthly...

The House approved the Tax Reform regulation bill on consumption, the second Tax Reform bill will be put to a vote after the recess, and the payroll tax exemption issue continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2024

The House concluded the voting on PLP 68/24, regarding the regulation of Tax Reform. This is an important victory for the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). The second Tax Reform regulation bill, which deals with the Managing Committee, was left for the second semester. The vote is sche...

Ukraine receives more military aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2024

On July 8 Zelensky visited Poland and met the prime minister. As usual this was announced in advance. The meeting was surprisingly low key. Zelensky has sometimes addressed the public when he visits Poland. On July 7 the British Defense Secretary visited Odessa, Ukraine. He is new in office becau...

National government debt continues to rise but at a decelerated rate
PHILIPPINES · Report · 10 Jul 2024

Public debt reflects the ability of governments to finance their annual budgets. If tax and non-tax revenues do not suffice, and reserves are not adequate to be drawn down, governments resort to borrowings from both domestic and external capital markets. The Philippines’ national government in...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jul 2024

June 27 President: A referendum on the nuclear power plant construction in Kazakhstan will be held in autumn 2024. S&P: The agency has upgraded the rating of Kazakhstan Kaspi Bank from BB to BB+, with a stable outlook. June 28 KASE: The stock exchange plans to hold talks with the Moscow Exchange ...

The House attempts to vote on the Tax Reform regulation on consumption, Pacheco presented the bill on state debt, and the Senate votes on the payroll tax relief bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2024

The House will attempt to vote today on the bill that regulates the Tax Reform on consumption, PLP 68/24. Yesterday, its urgent status was approved. To approve the merits of the bill, 257 votes are required. Yesterday, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) presented the bill that will address...

Indian Prime Minister visits Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

On July 8 Narendra Modi met Putin. This is Modi's first visit to Russia since the Ukraine War began. He said he is there to discuss building peace in Russia's region. Russia is delighted to host the leader of the world's most populous nation. It proves that Russia is far from isolated. India has ...

The House Working Group on the Tax Reform Management Committee presented its report yesterday, Padilha said the focus this week will be negotiations on consumption taxes, and gas prices increase today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2024

The House Working Group, which discusses the second bill on Tax Reform regulation regarding the Management Committee, presented its report yesterday. Federal Deputy Mauro Benevides Filho (PDT-CE) was chosen as the general rapporteur for this bill. Yesterday, the Minister of Institutional Relation...

Missile strike on children's hospital reinforces resolve
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

I want to say a few words about Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, which was targeted by Russian forces yesterday. This isn’t just another hospital; it’s a symbol for millions of Ukrainians. For nearly two and a half years, Vladimir Putin, with broad support from Russians, has been destroying numerou...

Good-looking headline CPI reading in June, but somewhat misleading
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

Headline CPI-inflation for June was reported at 0% mom, 3.7% yoy, the latter down from 4% in May, this morning. Analysts expected 3.9% yoy, so the actual looks like a really good figure. Note: Year-on-year changes in percent; Source: KSH However, this positive picture might be a bit misleading, a...

The federal budget looks stable in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1H24, it collected R5.7 trln in oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues, and another R11.4 trln came from various non-O&G incomes, such as VAT. Meanwhile, VAT is the largest constituency of non-O&G revenues, and according to the 2024 annual plan, it should be about 54....

BCRP to extend its policy pause on July 11th
PERU · In Brief · 08 Jul 2024

We have decided to call for an extended policy pause at Banco Central de Reserva del Perú's (BCRP, the central bank) Board meeting on July 11th. Although in our June report we had called for a 25bp cut, the Instituto de Estadística e Informática's (INEI, the statistical institute) June inflation ...

Fernando Haddad defends the fiscal anchor and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2024

This week, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, will try to facilitate the approval of the so-called "consumption reform" (Complementary Bill No. 68/24). In the Senate, the agenda continues to focus on payroll tax reduction. The priority for Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco is the bill that a...

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