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Country Insights

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Russia’s 3Q21 GDP growth is in line with expectations, while elevated inflation boosts nominal GDP numbers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 18 Nov 2021
Rosstat published its flash estimate of the 3Q21 y-o-y GDP growth (4.3%), which appeared in line with expectations and didn’t challenge the view that in 2021 as a whole Russia’s GDP will grow by around 4.2%. Rosstat provided no more details on the 3Q21 GDP. No breakdown of growth by sectors, no s...

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Gazprom increases supply to the EU but Belarus cuts it
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Nov 2021
On November 16 the Russian gas major declined to book extra pipeline capacity for December. That is the third consecutive month that Gazprom has done this. The EU says that Moscow is manipulating scarcity to drive up the price. There is an argument that Russia would like to take advantage of high...

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The CCJ of the House votes on Dep. Freitas’s report on the extension of the payroll tax exemption, Sen. Bezerra has confirmed that the Senate will change the Precatórios PEC, and the new Auxílio Brasil payments will be issued today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 17 Nov 2021
After being put to a vote in the CCJ, the payroll tax exemption bill will go to the Senate. President Jair Bolsonaro has announced his support for extending the exemption for another two years. Depending on the change to the Precatórios PEC, the text may have to return to the House. But even if i...

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​Mid-week update: Cracks surface in Republic Alliance, Kilicdaroglu promises mutual forgiveness
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Nov 2021 2 responses
As the Turkish Lira heads for Hades, the percolating political debate might have something to do with at least corporates buying more FX. I shall share my personal views on the exchange rate, but politics, too is heading for a four-car-pile up on the highway, which takes precedent. I must explain...

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Watching the recovery – household data remains weak
INDIA - Report 16 Nov 2021
The pandemic has largely subsided, google mobility data is close to pre-pandemic conditions, and a nice export boom is in place. But the view of household data is concerning. Household data shows a weak recovery after the peak of the second wave in May 2021. The Indian labor market is mostly a cl...

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Now The Ball is in The Central Bank’s Court
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Nov 2021
Although Precatórios PEC destructed the fragile fiscal framework, the reactions of the foreign exchange and interest rate markets have been moderately positive. The explanation is cynically simple: “It could be worse”. With this, the Real appreciated, closing last week at R$5.45/US$, and at the l...

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GDP growth misses expectations in Q3 with +2.4% y/y amid record-high grain harvest
UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Nov 2021
The state statistics office reported 2.4% y/y GDP growth in Q3. The result is far below expectations. The NBU just a few weeks ago estimated a 4.0% y/y GDP increase for the third quarter. Poor industry performance (near-zero growth through the quarter), as well as sluggish agro production (+7.2% ...

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The MNB raised 30bps... or maybe more (?)
HUNGARY - In Brief 16 Nov 2021
The Monetary Council held its monthly rate-setting meeting in a difficult situation, but its decision largely met the challenge.In response to the nearly runaway mode inflation took in October, the MNB took the following decisions:1. It raised the base rate and the interest rate corridor by 30bps...

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Issues surrounding President Bolsonaro's affiliation with the PL arise, the CAE should analyze the bills presented by Sen. Jean Paul Prates and Sen. Nelsinho Trad, and the MP that created the Auxílio Brasil program will expire in about three weeks
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Nov 2021
Bolsonaro’s affiliation with the PL was scheduled for November 22, but yesterday he said that he hopes to resolve the issues in two or three weeks. Bolsonaro is against an alliance with the PSDB in the state of São Paulo. The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate will analyze the report ...

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Germany suspends certification of Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Nov 2021
On November 15 Berlin said it cannot continue the process until a German company is established to manage the pipeline. Nord Stream 2 AG is a Swiss-registered company that currently owns the pipeline. The company can establish a German subsidiary, and that will satisfy Germany's demand. The asset...

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Q3 GDP growth moderately below analyst forecasts
HUNGARY - In Brief 16 Nov 2021
GDP growth for Q3 has been reported at 0.7% qoq, 6.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis this morning. In two domestic polls, the analyst median expectation was 7.2 and 7.4% yoy. Our own forecast was 6.8% yoy.Even though no breakdown was given by KSH, as usual with first estimate GDP report...

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Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 16 Nov 2021
What we know at this time:The period for filing of substitute candidates is over. Presidential daughter, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte, decided to run for vice president under the party of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Presidential aspirant Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. who is running under a less...

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Economics: Pemex and CFE results combine minor gains, continuing risks, and no energy transition
MEXICO - Report 15 Nov 2021
The country’s national oil and electric power companies released their third quarter results just as delegates were starting to assemble in Glasgow for COP26. Positive takeaways from Pemex included an extension of the gradual uptrend in crude production alongside a smattering of new well discover...

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Russian macro: how Minfin’s actions hamper the effectiveness of CBR policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Nov 2021
Russian federal budget revenues soared this year and exceeded the initial annual plan by 8.9% in 10M21. Oil-and-gas revenues were 21.8% higher than expected, while the rest of the revenues were 2.1% above the planned annual amount. In 10M21, the government spent 85% of budgeted expenditure, which...

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Politics: Violence and public insecurity pose risks of crisis in tourist areas
MEXICO - Report 15 Nov 2021
Crime-fueled violence continues to plague Mexico, with around 3,000 killings per month. With the growth in organized crime and drug cartels, their presence along with the associated violence and killings, has also intensified and spread to different parts of the country. Examples of this progress...