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Kyrgyzstan introduces foreign agents' law
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

On April 3 President Japarov signed the act. The law requires many entities to register as foreign agents. The law is based on a similar one in Russia. The law will apply to many NGOs that receive funding from other countries. Those that are involved in what are deemed to be political activities ...

Peru: Prime Minister in Congress
PERU · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzén and his Cabinet were in Congress this morning requesting the rejection to the no confidence vote. In his speech said that his priorities were the economic recovery and internal security. Although President Boluarte is under scrutiny on an apparent failure to decla...

March inflation: no major surprise
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2024

Consumer prices rose by 3.2%, m/m, in March, somewhat below consensus (likely on the back of somewhat softer food inflation), with the 12-month CPI inflation nevertheless increasing further to 68.5%, from 67.1% in February. Domestic-PPI posted a 3.3% increase, which led to another relatively sign...

The Ministry of Finance was surprised by Pacheco’s decision on the payroll tax exemption, the House scheduled a meeting on April 16 to discuss this issue, and Tebet said she will include an annex in the PLDO on spending review
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2024

The Ministry of Finance was surprised by Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco’s (PSD-MG) decision to remove the resumption of the payroll tax for municipalities from provisional measure (MP) 1202. The decision has an estimated cost of R$10 billion and clearly has an electoral motivation. The Lower Ho...

Important fiscal data from the Easter Bunny's basket
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024 · 1 response

Coloured eggs, a standard part of the Easter decoration of houses and gardens in most of Central Europe, is brought by the Easter Bunny in her basket, as far as the story presented to little children is concerned. This time around, the bunny also brought about some fresh fiscal data for Easter, a...

Pacheco published a decision on the payroll tax exemption, Haddad discusses the 2025 surplus target, and the Minister of Mines and Energy presents proposals on energy tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2024

Yesterday, a decision by the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), was published in an extra edition of the Federal Official Gazette, maintaining the payroll tax exemption for cities with a population of up to approximately 150,000. In a recent interview, the Minister of Finance, Fer...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2024

* Putin re-elected as president. * Terrorist attack in Moscow kills 140. * Russia pounds Ukrainian cities but gains little ground. * Ukraine is critically short of shells. * Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan open trade link.

Growth mixed, but tied to U.S. trends.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Apr 2024

Guatemala´s economy returned to its long-term potential growth rate in 2023. Despite the political tensions over presidential transition, there were no major disruptions in internal production and income. Real GDP growth reached 3.5% y/y, down from 4.1% a year before. Economic expansion can be ex...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Apr 2024

OVERVIEW The decline of Lula’s approval ratings, as indicated by various polling agencies in the past few weeks, has made his position in negotiations with Congress (where he has never had a majority) even more vulnerable. The bargaining is becoming more bitter, with additional pressures for b...

Preferences leaning center-right in the municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2024

This will be a slow week in the National Congress due to the party window, when party members can change parties without losing their mandate. Rodrigo Pacheco and Fernando Haddad may return to discussing state debt. This week's Talking Points:  * Michelle Bolsonaro in the 2026 election...

CHP’s astounding victory confounds politicians, analysts and Yours Truly
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2024 · 1 response

With each passing hour, a different aspect of CHP’s local election victory emerges from the details of final tallies, confounding the political class, and of course humble analysts, like myself. I shall provide fuller account of the magnitude of the victory, focusing in this Brief on political an...

This will be a slow week in Congress, Pacheco and Haddad will meet to discuss the states’ federal debt, and the LDO must be submitted to Congress by April 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2024

This week will be slow in the Lower House due to the party window, which ends on Friday, April 5. The president of the House, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), decided to suspend all in-person activities in the House this week because of the party window. The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (P...

A rate cut next week appears likely, depending on the shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Apr 2024

1. Credit card purchases remain elevated in March, suggesting robust consumer demand. 2. A rate cut appears likely next week, assuming a stable shekel. 3. Initial estimates for tax revenues in March point to another upward surprise.

Preliminary results: CHP juggernaut steamrolls over AKP
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2024

With 55% of the votes tallied, CHP has not only kept Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, but also edged out AKP in the national vote. While some races are still too close to call, CHP may cross the finish line with only one major loss, namely the earthquake capital Hatay. On the other hand, it seems to h...

Rate cut expected next week, assuming limited shekel volatility this week
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Mar 2024

Private consumption remains elevated Although domestic real credit card purchases declined by 2% in February, the level of purchases is 3.8% higher than the pre-war level in September (SA). Real-time data from the BoI point to 3% m/m growth in March. This high level of consumption is due in part ...

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