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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The House is expected to vote on a legislative decree that revokes the President’s decree on the IOF tax, allies are distancing themselves from the government, and there is a holiday next week in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jun 2025

The Lower House sent a strong message to the government: it scheduled a vote for next Monday on a legislative decree that revokes the president’s decree on the IOF tax. It is also clear that some allies have begun distancing themselves from the government as the election approaches and the admini...

Webinar replay - Colombia in turmoil
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025

What is driving the current wave of violence in Colombia? What are the likely consequences for governability, reforms and an eventual consultation on labor reform? What are the implications for the presidential race? How will the central bank act in its June meeting? Visit our calendar page to...

Webinar replay - Poland election results: Political and policy implications
POLAND · Report · 13 Jun 2025

The election of Karol Nawrocki will usher in changes for Poland. What is the new administration's likely impact on policy over the next two and a half years and beyond? What does the outcome mean for the course of Polish politics? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar fea...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currencies in a sweet spot, but for how long?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025

Typically, the Caucasus and Central Asia currencies have faced a weakening RUB, which creates a myriad of problems for countries that tend to run trade deficits with Russia and depend on cross-border remittances from their large neighbor. But 2025 has been different, with the strengthening RUB ge...

Kazakh services sector keeps booming amid the country’s growing importance as a transit hub
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M25, freight transportation output grew by 11.9% y-o-y. The passenger transportation segment grew by 10.5% y-o-y. Transportation combined with warehousing (an SNA category) was up by 23.1% y-o-y. The difference in growth rates of transportation ...

Oil spikes to $75 as Israel strikes Iran and kills the head of its military
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025

What happened? Writing a few hours into the attacks, which began around 3am on Friday (7.30pm ET Thur), there is only limited information about what has happened. There were at least six explosions in Tehran, some targeting residential buildings linked to military and scientific families. Civilia...

A decree on the IOF tax and an MP on other taxes were published, there has been a delay in the payment of parliamentary fund transfers, and the STF voted to hold social media platforms accountable for content posted by users
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2025

A decree adjusting the Financial Operations Tax (IOF) and a provisional measure (MP) addressing the taxation of financial investments, betting platforms, and the increase in the Interest on Equity (JCP) rate, among other measures, were published yesterday in a special edition of the Federal Offic...

Inflation deceleration is on track, budget revenues to be trimmed
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that in May, inflation was almost the same as in April, reaching 0.43% m-o-m. The number was a bit higher than we expected a few weeks ago based on weekly inflation prints. Some of the difference between cumulative inflation based on weekly flash estimates and the official monthl...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025

May 29 Finance Ministry: Kazakhstan has not yet decided on the parameters for issuing Eurobonds, and is waiting for the market situation to improve. Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market: Banks from Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe are considering entering the Kazakh mark...

May CPI data out, MNB's tight policy course vindicated
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2025

The headline rate of CPI-inflation surprised on the upside in May. Against 4.2% yoy expected by analysts (their median forecast), the actual number was 4.4% yoy, with 0.2% inflation in May alone. The yoy rate rose from 4.2% yoy in April. Non-fuel inflation backed up to 5.2% yoy from the previous ...

The STF concluded the testimony phase for the case on the attempted coup, discussions on the IOF are ongoing, and members of the Agricultural Front presented alternative proposals in response to the government’s plan to tax LCAs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2025

The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) concluded yesterday the testimony phase for the defendants in the so-called “central group,” accused of orchestrating an attempted coup in 2022. Among those who testified were former President Jair Bolsonaro and General Braga Neto. Regarding the ...

Slide Presentation - Poland Election Results: Political and Policy Implications
POLAND · Presentation · 11 Jun 2025

The election of Karol Nawrocki will usher in changes for Poland. What is the new administration's likely impact on policy over the next two and a half years and beyond? What does the outcome mean for the course of Polish politics? View the slide presentation from our webinar, "Poland Election Re...

Israel’s budget deficit narrowed to 5.0% of GDP in May; Stronger-than-planned tax revenues may offset above-budget defense spending, assuming Gaza de-escalation by Q3
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jun 2025

The Ministry of Finance released the May budget figures yesterday, and overall, the data looks solid—even though we’re still operating in a high-expenditure environment. The fiscal deficit for May came in at NIS 8.6 billion (~$2.5 billion), with the trailing 12-month deficit edging down slightly ...

Haddad should meet with Lula to discuss alternative measures to the IOF, Motta defended setting a cap on healthcare deductions in income tax filings, and Social Security Minister Queiroz will participate in a public hearing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2025

Today, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to meet with President Lula to discuss alternative measures to the IOF tax. On Sunday, Haddad said there will be an immediate recalibration of the IOF, including an 80% reduction in specific operations known as “risco sacado” and a reduction of ...

Economics: Labor data mirrors struggling economy
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2025

Employment remains in a clear slowdown that began last year and aligned with the weakening of the economy as a whole. The employed population decreased -0.2% yoy in the first quarter and then increased 0.2% in April, bringing the cumulative slippage for the first four months of the year to an ann...

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