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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Inflation set to accelerate in 2025, but remain broadly contained
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Jan 2025

Inflation fell in all CCA countries in 2024 despite above-average economic growth. Average price growth moderated from 5.4 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent in 2024. Inflation reached a bottom in 1Q24, chiefly on still powerful base effects, mainly food, but some acceleration of price growth has gra...

Israel's public debt surges to 69% of GDP in 2024. Economic implications and what’s ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

Israel's Ministry of Finance reported a sharp rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 69% in 2024, up from 61.3% in 2023 and 60.3% in 2022. Government debt-to-GDP climbed to 67.6%, with total government debt reaching NIS 1,329.3 billion by the end of 2024, compared to NIS 1,127.4 billion in 2023....

Rates lowered, statement softened
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jan 2025

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate by another 250 bps to 45% today (see chart), in line with expectations. There were not a whole lot of noteworthy changes in the statement, except for, importantly, the removal of detailed references to the monthly pace of inflation and inflati...

NBU Raises Prime Rate to 14.5%, Signals Further Hikes Ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

The NBU Board has raised the prime rate again by 1.0 ppt to 14.5%, effective January 24. The 'working' rates have also been adjusted: the overnight deposit certificate rate increased to 14.5% (from 13.5%), the three-month deposit certificate rate rose to 17.0% (from 16.0%), and the refinancing ra...

Trump slaps Putin in the face with a proposal to get a favor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

That’s a nice way to kick off negotiations. Whether intentionally or not, Donald Trump’s post landed a direct blow to the very core of Russist ideology. For years, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cultivated a "victory cult" in Russian society, glorifying May 9th, Victory Day, and claiming public...

Politics: Fragile ceasefires and emerging power realignments in the Middle East
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jan 2025

This is the first of a series of monthly reports that will focus on Israel’s domestic politics, as well as regional politics as they impact Israel. - Trump’s pressures were key in securing the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza. Despite its continued hope to annihilate Hamas, Israel is likely to ...

Triple-digit inflation risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Jan 2025

Uncertainty as to politics and oil in 2025 will cause exchange rates and consumer prices to accelerate. We present two scenarios for 2025. Both assume that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will maintain a controlled crawling peg for the official exchange rate and leverage the increased dema...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Jan 2025

Jan 10 UN: The organization expected Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, it expects 4.8% annual growth in 2025-2026. National railways: The cargo turnover of the national railway carrier (Kazakhstan Temir Zholy) grew by 1.1% y-o-y in 2024. Jan 14 NBK: Kazakhstan's international reserves decre...

Mr. Trump and the Panama Canal: An “external shock” and the necessity of a three-phase strategy for Panama
PANAMA · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Panama has been in the international economic and political spotlight in recent weeks, particularly following President Donald Trump’s inaugural address on January 20: “We are going to take back the Canal that was unfairly taken from us by Panama and which imposes unjustly high tolls.” This re...

Ecuadorians’ despair translates into uncertainty
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2025

President Daniel Noboa started his term last year with public support over 64%, which by the end of 2024 had fallen to 42%. While his support has taken a deep dive, it is not very different from the numbers President Correa had at the start and end of his terms, but within a much shorter time fra...

Kazakhstan macro: The unexpectedly high rate of economic growth in 4Q24 is unlikely to persist in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jan 2025

In a few days, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance will publish budgetary statistics for the entire year 2024, but it looks as though spending soared in December. It already started accelerating in October-November. We mentioned earlier that apart from the generous budgetary stimulus, expanding hous...

Federal budget deficit in December widened as expected, while the current account unexpectedly turned red
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2024, as a whole, the federal budget was in deficit of about RUB3.5 trln, which should be below 1.8% of GDP, i.e., a mere percentage of GDP. Revenues and expenditures looked close to what the government targeted, albeit actual revenues appeared below the a...

The problem of the exchange rate
INDIA · Report · 21 Jan 2025

In late 2022, the INR moved to a highly managed exchange rate regime, with low volatility and (most likely) an attempt at a strong rupee. Such actions are inconsistent with the new inflation-targeting regime. They are likely to have reflected the consensus between the previous RBI governor and th...

2026 elections rising to the fore; economy accelerated at end-2024; BCRP to end its easing cycle
PERU · Report · 21 Jan 2025

We discuss three topics in this report. First, we argue that politics is changing gears, with the focus turning to the 2026 election campaign. Second, we discuss economic performance. We suggest that, although the economy accelerated through November, economic cooling began in December, and we ex...

Politics: Trump’s threats cast a shadow over the Mexican outlook
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Supporters of Claudia Sheinbaum jammed Mexico City’s Zocalo square on January 12th for a rally to mark her 100 days in office. The new President’s speech centered on several key points: continuity with AMLO’s project and policies and a rejection of a return to the neoliberal past; major achieveme...

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