RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 May 2022

On May 8 Ukraine announced that the evacuation from the steel factory had been completed. The Ukrainian soldiers are still in the factory. Russia is eager to capture Mariupol because then it will complete the land corridor from Russia to Crimea.Russia confirmed that the evacuation had been carrie...

ISRAEL - In Brief 08 May 2022

We have revised our inflation forecast upwards to 3.3% NTM In the past, we factored in a modest shekel appreciation on the back of the strong CA surplus and net FDI. Currently, we think that equity market volatility is a more dominant factor impacting the shekel and therefore we are pricing sheke...

TURKEY - Forecast 08 May 2022

We stick to the macro scenarios we’ve introduced in earlier reports but tweak the odds a little – for the worse, on the back of the adverse shock inflicted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To recall, we surmised that three macroeconomic scenarios could play out between now and the elections, b...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 May 2022 1 response

The per capita income of the country is expected to be USD 1,300 per annum. That is the second lowest in the former USSR after Tajikistan. It is lower than war-torn Ukraine.Tajikistan is a mountainous land of 6 million people. It is largely bereft of natural resources. Sanctions on Russia indirec...

UKRAINE - In Brief 07 May 2022

Two days till the May 9th, Victory Day – a sacred day for USSR-longing inhabitants of Russia. Now we can say it for sure, ‘the big battle for Donbas’ turned out to be one more failure for Russian army. Despite substantial concentration of forces and armors at the East, the Russians managed to get...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 06 May 2022

The EU is trying to wean itself off Russian oil by the end of 2022. The EU would like to reduce Russian gas imports but cannot see a way to stop them totally. 40% of EU gas comes from Russia. If Azerbaijan sells more gas to the EU, then the EU can decrease purchases of Russian gas very substantia...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 06 May 2022

For yet another month the pandemic has not been a big issue either in the media or in the minds of ordinary Russians, as both the daily incidence rate and the death toll continued to fall (the former fell to around 5K in recent days from a peak of around 200K in mid-February). It was another irre...

INDIA - Report 06 May 2022

On May 4, the RBI came out with a surprise 40-bp rate hike. There are three puzzles here: Why a surprise action, why 40 bps, and why May 4? What is the monetary policy strategy that plausibly generated this? It is possible to reconstruct the logic for this from the viewpoint of exchange rate obj...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 May 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rises on Russian oil ban fears, a limited OPEC+ taper and stasis in Iran nuclear talks. * The NOPEC bill to enable antitrust action against OPEC passed a US Senate committee 17-4. * Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s ...

CHINA - Report 06 May 2022

Lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities since March have interfered with robust economic recovery. GDP rose 4.8% y/y in Q1, up 0.8 pps from Q4 2021, but 0.2 pps lower than in Q1 2021. Industrial output rose 6.5% in Q1, up 2.6 pps from Q4, but down 1 pps from January-February. Investment rose 9.3% ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 May 2022

Regarding the institutional tension, STF President Fux has stated that he and Senate President Pacheco are “aligned on the objective of defending the government’s institutions and our Constitution”. Despite efforts at dialogue and attempts to de-escalate the institutional conflict, the likelihood...

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 06 May 2022

Russian gas exports to EU From April 27 Gazprom stopped publishing its own operational statistics on natural gas supplies to the EU countries. Probably it's due to the desire not to show further reduction in exports, including its termination to supply gas to Poland and Bulgaria. According to thi...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 06 May 2022

The Russian economy will face a deep economic contraction in 2022 amid the harsh sanctions regime, and its financial markets have to adjust rapidly, trying to find an acceptable way to exist in the new reality. This process is further complicated by the rapid changes in external factors (mostly n...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 06 May 2022

On May 5 a recruitment office was burnt down by Molotov cocktails. The police are seeking two male suspects. Five other military recruitment offices have been burnt by Molotov cocktails since the war began. This is indicative that a considerable proportion of young men do not want to be called up...

HUNGARY - In Brief 06 May 2022

The intra-EU debate on how much economic damage individual member states should take and over what period due to the intended ban on oil imports from Russia continues. At present, there are five members asking for exemptions, all on temporary basis: Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary and Slovaki...