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Update to our September Report
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

This afternoon after we released our monthly report for September, President Lasso and Minister of Finance Pablo Arosemena announced the agreement reached with China for a restructuring of the Ecuadorian debt with this country that will bring benefits in debt reduction and cash flow service. The ...

Economics: 2023 revenue and spending plans don’t add up, but may afford officials some room
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2022

In our follow up to last week’s initial review of the López Obrador administration’s 2023 budget package in which we focused on its domestic and international macroeconomic assumptions, this week we delve deeper into its revenue and spending bills. These confirm our concerns that the 2023 budget ...

A referendum at last – but will it be groundbreaking?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Sep 2022

After a year of hesitation, President Guillermo Lasso has decided to go for a referendum to amend the Constitution approved in 2008 regarding three general aspects: national security, democracy and the political structure, and the environment. The questions for a referendum require the approval o...

Polls in Minas Gerais put the presidential candidates on high alert and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro attends the opening of the UN Assembly in New York. On September 24, a debate is scheduled between the presidential candidates. In the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco discusses the nursing salary floor with leaders. In the economy, the highlight is the meeting of the Central Bank...

Fighting on Tajik-Kyrgyz Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2022

On September 18 Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stated that their joint death toll was 94 from fighting in a few days of skirmishes. There is a shaky ceasefire that was signed on September 16 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The two countries have begun joint patrols. Tajikistan accused Kyrgyz...

Pelosi in Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2022

On September 18 the Speak of the US House of Representatives visited Armenia. Speaker Pelosi was there to commemorate the Armenian Genocide. She condemned Azerbaijan for what she called illegal attacks on Armenia. Azerbaijan is a close ally of Turkey. Armenia blames Turkey for the genocide of 191...

Economic Activity: The Start of Deceleration
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Sep 2022

Since the lags of monetary policy are long and variable, a degree of uncertainty always exists regarding the start of the effects of restrictive monetary policy. Last week, three important indicators of economic activity had contrary signs. While in June and July, real revenue from services and t...

Ukrainians kill pro-Russian officials
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2022

On September 16 a bomb killed two pro-Moscow officials in Luhansk. The Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) said this was terrorism. Three other pro-Russian bureaucrats were killed on that day alone in separate incidents. One of them was deputy head of the Russian-appointed administration in Berdyansk...

August’s better domestic demand was matched by worse property prices
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Sep 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months. Output growth continues to be weak in spite of aggressive supply-side measures, while the growth in consumption has further stagnated. This is exacerbated by th...

Eight polls will be published this week, President Bolsonaro will give the opening speech at the UN General Assembly, and Rodrigo Pacheco will discuss the nursing salary floor and the provisional measure on tax credits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2022

This morning, the FSB/BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election was published. According to the poll, Lula's advantage over Jair Bolsonaro in the first round increased to nine points from six points. On Tuesday, as is tradition, Bolsonaro will deliver the opening speech of the UN General Asse...

Inflation surprises slightly on the downside
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Sep 2022

* Inflation in August came in below expectations as food prices declined; core inflation y/y stabilized at 4.7%. * At the moment, a 0.5% rate hike appears likely in October, although 0.75% cannot be ruled out. * The CA surplus declined in Q2 as the trade deficit increased and the service...

Inflation surprises slightly on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Sep 2022

Inflation in August came in slight below expectations * Inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (4.6% y/y), compared with expectations of -0.1% to -0.2%. * Core inflation remained stable y/y at 4.7% (similar to that in July). * The main surprise came from the decline in food prices, while OER prices conti...

The EU Commission's rule-of-law proposal is out, quite in line with expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2022

The EU Commission has made up its mind as to what to propose to the European Council (more accurately Ecofin) on Hungary's ongoing rule-of-law procedure. The proposal is to set a financial penalty of €7.5bn of development grants, which represents 65% of Hungary's quota for three cohesion policy p...

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
TURKEY · Report · 18 Sep 2022

President Erdogan came back from his meeting with Putin on the sides of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit with some gifts, though these may have fallen short of his expectations. Nonetheless, it is clear that Putin is ready to bankroll his pal Erdogan’s election campaign. The questions...

Russia admits concerns of its allies over the Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2022

On September 15 at the Shanghai Cooperation Summit Plan said he had spoken to the Chinese about their "concerns" regarding the war. On September 16 the Prime Minister of India told Putin, ''Now is not the time for war.'' Modi asked Putin to end the war by diplomacy. India is Russia's second bigge...

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