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Putin hails friendship with India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2021

On December 6 the Russian President visited New Delhi. He acclaimed India as a ''great power'' as he met Prime Minister Modi. India and the USSR were allies for decades. India has a more positive view of Russian than almost any other non former Soviet nation. This is the second foreign visit Puti...

GDP in the Third Quarter, Elevation of the Selic Rate and Outlook for the Economy in 2022
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Dec 2021

Based on the indications provided by the IBC-Br, the contraction of GDP by 0.1% in the third quarter came as no surprise. However, because of the need to raise the interest rate, putting it in restrictive territory, and the recent evolution of various indicators (of confidence, industrial output ...

Politics: Balance sheet and political outlook in AMLO’s third year in office
MEXICO · Report · 06 Dec 2021

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has just completed half of his six-year term. While his popularity has actually increased in the past few weeks and his supporters are more enthusiastic than ever, the results of his administration, despite almost daily glowing reports in the President’s dail...

Economics: Imports and FDI stats cast doubt on recovery prospects clouded by internal policies and the global context
MEXICO · Report · 06 Dec 2021

In previous issues of the Economic Outlook, we have analyzed the behavior of exports as an essential factor in economic growth perspectives, especially considering that in the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 it was the only sector in the whole economy with any dynamism. To complemen...

Is Auxílio Brasil enough for Bolsonaro and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco decide on the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC. The government is waiting for the decision to begin issuing Auxílio Brasil payments this week. The House may vote on Refis. In the economy, the Central Bank's final meeting of the year to decide on the interes...

Investment activity rebounds in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that investment in production capacity was up y-o-y by 7.8% in 3Q21 and by 7.6% in 9M21. Investment increased almost all across the economy apart from the mining sector (down by 0.2% y-o-y in 9M21). This decline occurred due to a 6.4% contraction of investment in the oil-and-gas....

Lira and Pacheco should reach a decision on the Precatórios PEC, Auxílio Brasil payments expected to begin on Friday, and the STF should resume trial on the case questioning the constitutionality of the transfer of certain public service concessions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2021

While some senators believe that the House should expedite the analysis of the proposal and review the changes they made, Lira supports the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC. The most likely scenario right now is the partial enactment of the proposal, but this depends on an agreement betwe...

Some initial signs of wage inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Dec 2021

1. Wage growth accelerated in September and will be a factor supporting inflation. 2. Private consumption growth has shifted from goods to services. 3. The shekel appreciated by 0.8% last week; fundamentals remain pro-shekel.

​Regarding Kemal Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY · Report · 06 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Over the weekend, the Financial Times published an expose about CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 11 years after he ascended to the throne of the party. I predict with 73.496% confidence that the WSJ and the Economist shall follow suit, thus it became incumbent upon me to steal the march on them.

Some initial signs of wage inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Dec 2021

Highlights of our weekly review:Signs of some wage inflationThe average wage increased by 1.7% m/m in September (sa).Average wage growth over the past two years is up 4.8% annual, accelerating from 4.1% last month.Wage pressure is more apparent in communications and information (up 9.2%), finance...

Russia has probably suffered the most coronavirus deaths of any country
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Statistics out on December 3 showed that the death toll in October 2021 was a record. There were 90,000 coronavirus deaths from October 2021 which is a 57% YoY increase. That is a damning indictment of the failure to get more people vaccinated. There have been 813,000 coronavirus deaths in total ...

EU provides defense equipment to Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2021

On December 2 it was announced that the EU will strengthen the defense capacities of these three Eastern European nations. This comes under the European Peace Facility scheme. No weapons will be provided.Georgia will receive USD 14 million worth of equipment. This is mostly medical and engineerin...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ sticks with taper, S&P stabilizes Bahrain, Macron sells jets to UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Dec 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ surprised markets by sticking with its taper but hinted that it could reconsider mid-month if needed. * Iran nuclear talks finally reconvened, just as Iran restarted enrichment at a controversial underground site. ...

The vote on the Precatórios PEC was concluded in the Senate, the Auxílio Brasil MP was approved, and the STF discusses the constitutionality of the transfer of public service concessions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2021

Lower House President Arthur Lira supports the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC. There will have to be a close study on what can or cannot be enacted. The partial enactment of the PEC may cause negative reactions from some senators, who would like the House to analyze the entire text appr...

Inflation jumps in November, but this is just a beginning
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

Consumer prices rose by 3.5%, m/m, in November, higher than the consensus of around 3%, with the 12-month rate increasing further to 21.3% from 19.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a whopping –though not so surprising (given the direct effects of currency weakness and higher energy prices in...

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