GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

With Lula's return to Brazil after his trip to Egypt, he is expected to announce future members of his ministerial team. Party leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, which may be put to a vote in the Senate by the end of the month. This week's Talking Points: ...

A Disastrous Proposal

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With a public debt that is too big for a developing country and with a real interest rate higher than the economic growth rate, Brazil needs to generate primary surpluses sufficiently large to reduce the debt/GDP ratio to avoid losing control of inflation and hampering economic growth. However, e...

Politics: Massive protest against AMLO’s political reform, potentially upending politics

MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022

The upstart National Civic Front (FCN) and five other civil society organizations that have all now banded together in the "Unidos" citizens' initiative staged protests nationwide on November 13 to defend the National Electoral Institute and oppose the electoral reform of President López Obrador....

Politics in times of high inflation

ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In a context of rising inflation and low government confidence indices, at last Thursday's speech on the “Day of the Militancy” (the day when parties celebrate the commitment and support of their voters), CFK presented herself in a rock-star manner, in a crowded “Ciudad de La Plata” Stadium. She ...

Economics: As the monetary rate rises, bank credit continues to expand

MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022 · 1 response

With the recent hikes in monetary policy interest rates in leading economies at a time of persistently high inflation, central bank authorities have signaled that we are facing a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Such warnings from the Federal Reserve are of particular significance to ...

Murder, mystery, mayhem

TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Turkish jets strafed Syrian Kurdish settlements in retaliation for the Beyoglu terror attack. We doubt this will escalate into a military campaign, though. There is a lot of commentary on Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts elevating his credibility and raising his voter approval at home. We are circums...

Negative global and domestic shocks slow the South African economy

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Nov 2022 · 2 responses

Households: Consumption expenditure by households has been one of the key drivers of the South African economy’s recovery from the Covid-19-induced recession. Although household consumption is expected to remain a key driver for growth, this is expected to be at a lesser extent than during the pe...

The Transition PEC was submitted yesterday, and the proposal will likely be changed before approval

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2022

Finally, the transition team presented the text of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to the National Congress. In fact, it is very unlikely that Congress will approve the measure in the terms proposed by the government. There is consensus on removing Bolsa Família from the sp...

Ukraine grain deal extended

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

On November 17 the United Nations and Ukraine said the deal whereby Ukrainian food is exported through the Black Sea has been given a 120 day extension. Turkey is vital in this because the ships carrying the food will pass through the Bosphorous Strait which is a Turkish waterway flowing through ...

GDP down 4.0% y-o-y in 3Q22, weekly inflation remains subdued

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that the country's GDP was down by 4.0% in 3Q22 according to its flash estimate. No other details have been published. If so, then it means that seasonally adjusted Q-o-Q GDP didn't increase in 3Q22. It also means that in 9M22, GDP could be down by 1.7% y-o-y implying that in 202...

BSP matches US Fed rate hike

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

The Monetary Board formally approved today the 75bp increase in the BSP’s set of policy rates that Governor Felipe Medalla announced two weeks ago. The increase brings the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 5%. In his statement, Governor Medalla acknowledged that the action is aggressive but ne...

Little Gulf bond issuance is expected in 2023

GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 16 Nov 2022

After quadrupling their debt burden since 2014, the Gulf states are largely pausing new borrowing due to non-oil fiscal reforms, the oil windfall and higher borrowing costs. Oman and Qatar are even actively deleveraging. Sovereign external debt security issuance has dipped from an average of $40b...

Russia refuses Ukraine's conditions for peace talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2022

On November 15 Russia said that Ukraine's basis for peace talks were unrealistic and unsatisfactory. The Russian Foreign Minister falsely claimed that Ukraine had outright refused peace talks. Ukraine has a 10-point peace plan. This included guarantees for security and a court to try alleged Russ...

The Transition PEC may be submitted today, the PL may still question the results of the election, and Lula is in Egypt for the COP27

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

A meeting is scheduled for today between Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), rapporteur of the Budget and the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), and party leaders. The PEC may still be submitted today. Yesterday, a document regarding electronic voting machines requested by the PL wa...

Table of Six summit: More good than bad news

TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The leaders of six opposition parties constituting the main stream opposition, dubbed the Table of Six (ToS) met for 8 hours on Monday night, to discuss a new constitution, joint economic program and coalition formation, as well as the implications of the tragic terror strike in Beyoglu, Istanbul...