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The IPEC poll shows stability in the presidential race, tomorrow is Brazil’s Independence Day, and Pacheco meets with Barroso to discuss the national nursing salary floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

According to the poll, former President Lula has 44% of intended votes and President Jair Bolsonaro has 31%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 8% and Simone Tebet (MDB), 4%. IPEC also polled the intended votes for the second round. Lula would win by 52% to 36% against Bolsonaro. We are on the eve of the Septe...

August inflation at 6.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2022

Consumer prices continued to trek up in August but at a slower rate of 0.4% month-on-month. The slower climb translated into a headline inflation rate of 6.3%, down from July’s 6.4%, as softening crude oil prices helped offset some of the increases in food prices. Despite the deceleration in the ...

The Temporary GDP Growth in The Second Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

GDP growth in the second quarter was 1.2%, greater than our expectation of 0.8%. This prompts us to project growth of 3% for the year. Although expansion of the global economy contributed to this result, it was mainly the fruit of the strong fiscal stimuli, which increased consumption and gross f...

The latest polling trends and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

There are high expectations regarding the demonstrations on September 7 for the 200th anniversary of the Independence of Brazil. Several presidential polls will be published. On Friday, September 9, the IBGE announces the inflation rate for August. This week’s Talking Points: * The lat...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West split to remain unreconcilable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

Sad news came on August 30, 2022, as thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, its first and last president, Mikhail Gorbachev, passed away aged 91. His death looked symbolic amid this year’s developments in Russia as the country left behind its thirty-year period of some kind of partn...

Reading economics in chess
INDIA · Report · 06 Sep 2022

Indians have done well in chess for a long time. In September 2022, 11 of the top 50 teenagers were from India. This underlines the upper tail capabilities in India in the eyes of global decision makers. The rebranding of India was shaped by the comic strip Dilbert’s “Asok” character in the 19...

The cancellation of non-tradeable bonds should support tradeable assets
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Sep 2022

1. Last week, the shekel weakened by 3.1% against the basket, pushing up our inflation forecast to 2.7% (from 2.5%) in the next 12 months. 2. Non-tradeable bond issuance to pension funds will be cancelled as of October 1, supporting demand for alternative tradeable assets (especially equitie...

Chile's constitutional referendum: Boric's options.
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

With an historic turnout of 86%, Chileans overwhelmingly have rejected the draft proposed by the constitutional convention. This brings to a close the process initiated on 15 November 2019, when the political parties sought a way out of the violence and protest of the Social Explosion. But it doe...

A temporary respite thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 1.5% in August (consensus, median: 2%), which, as far as our (slightly lower than median) forecast is concerned, owed a great deal to softer (unprocessed) food inflation in the month. Twelve-month CPI rate nevertheless rose slightly further to 80.2%, ...

Gas imports keep flowing into Hungary this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

Now that Russia has decided to keep the Nordstream 1 gas pipeline to Germany closed despite earlier announcements, and European gas prices jumped by 25% this morning as a result, it seems important to note that gas imports keep flowing into Hungary from four directions - Serbia, Austria, Croatia ...

US and EU ambassadors leave Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

On September 4 the two ambassadors departed, having finished their terms there. The US Ambassador has now retired. A US charge d'affaires will be running the embassy until a new ambassador is in post. Despite relations being their worst since the 1980s, the US has no intention of breaking off dip...

What a mess...
TURKEY · Report · 04 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

The process of unraveling in AKP picked up a notch, as ex-gladio and fugitive mafia leader Sedat Peker returned to the social media limelight with ground-breaking bribery revelations. Why the UAE permitted him to tweet again is a question with important political implications, which we cover in t...

The cancellation of non-tradeable bonds should support tradeable assets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2022

Non-tradeable bond issuance will cease on the 1st of October. • Although this will require higher tradeable bond issuance (an additional 35bn annual) in order to meet fiscal financing requirements, the current positive fiscal situation (currently a surplus) will support low issuance. • Domestic d...

Gazprom cuts off gas to the EU indefinitely
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2022

On September 2 the Russian state gas company said that the gas pipeline to Germany will not reopen on September 3. Gazprom claimed that the additional delay before reopening is due to oil leaks. The 3-day shutdown was due to a need to repair a turbine. On September 2 the Kremlin said that Nord St...

Chinese payments system cuts off Russian banks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2022

On September 2 the Russian news site RBC reported that UnionPay is no longer accepting Russian bank cards because UnionPay is worried about secondary sanctions. UnionPay has not made any official statement. Many Russians had obtained UnionPay cards after Visa and Mastercard left Russia. UnionPay ...

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