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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tax reform approval still not secured
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021

After an incomplete second debate of the tax reform, the government still does not have the necessary 70 votes for its approval. Pachakutik (27 votes), Izquierda Democratica (17 votes), BAN (25 votes) could approve the tax reform if their suggested modifications are taken into consideration.And e...

​Social unrest springs up amidst talk of Emergency Law
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021 · 1 response

The massive depreciation and volatility of TL seem to have caused new supply bottlenecks in the economy, as well as triggering a steady flow of price hikes. Turks seem to have finally gotten tired of the high cost of living, with first wild-cat protests springing up Tuesday night. Slightly larger...

A Thanksgiving Day gift from the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021

The MNB has set its fixed interest rate for this week's 1-week deposit tender at 2.9% today. This represents another 40 bps hike from last week, and a total 110 bps increase in the effective sterilisation rate, including all three steps carried out over the last nine days. By this step, the MNB i...

China and Russia close to a military alliance
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021

On November 24 it was announced that Beijing and Moscow will enhance collaboration in patrolling the Asia-Pacific Region. The Russian Defense Minister complained about increasing US Air Force activity and presence on Russia's borders.On November 23 Defense Minister Shoigu said that he had agreed ...

The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic raised the monetary policy interest rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Given the persistence of inflationary pressures beyond what was expected, the Central Bank today decided to raise the monetary policy rate from 3% to 3.5%, annually. With the decision, the interest rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) also increases from 3.5% to 4.0%, ...

Decent rate of industrial growth in October amid high inflation and decelerating credit growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Industrial performance was good enough in October. Rosstat reported that industrial production was up y-o-y by 7.1% in October and 5.0% in 10M21. Seasonally and calendar adjusted by Rosstat m-o-m growth was positive (0.8%). The mining sector grew y-o-y by 10.9% and 3.7% over the same periods, whi...

AMLO decides to strengthen his power over Banxico
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Facts: The President withdrew former Ministry of Finance's nomination to preside over Banxico’s Board and today he proposed Victoria Martínez, the current undersecretary at the Ministry of Finance in charge of the spending division, for the post. No doubt she will be approved by the Senate before...

The rapporteur of the Precatórios PEC should submit his report today, the STF should begin analyzing the constitutionality of the sanitation law, and the PL confirmed President Bolsonaro’s affiliation with the party
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2021

The vote on the text of the Precatórios PEC should take place in the CCJ next Tuesday, and voting in the Plenary should be held on December 1 or 2. We believe the PEC can receive up to 54 votes in favor – even if all the Podemos senators (9 senators) vote against the proposal. There are four case...

US and Russian generals speak on phone to cool tensions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

On November 23 the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Russian Chief of General Staff spoke about security issues. The US said the discussion was about de-confliction. The US is concerned about the build-up of Russian forces near Ukraine. Russia says this is a drill. There are analysts ...

Can China avoid the Japan trap?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Nov 2021

Two concerns dominate elite politics in China. One is the collapse of the political system similar to the Soviet Union. The second is the Japanese period of economic stagnation in the 1990s. The fear of economic stagnation is behind the sharp cutbacks in the property market and the collapse of Ev...

South Africa's local government elections augur tectonic democratic political changes
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021 · 1 response

Over the past 48 hours, South Africa's local government councils have scrambled to meet the constitutional deadline for the establishment of their municipal governing structures. As reported before, the dominant African National Congress (ANC) experienced a much harsher than expected voter backla...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2021

* Russia’s Gazprom increases some supply to the EU as Belarus cuts it. * US allegations that Russia is building up troops near Ukraine are met with fierce denial. * Belarus is being sanctioned again by the EU for allowing thousands of illegal immigrants to gather on the Polish border.

The forint is a bit too weak, though not dramatically
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2021

The current EURHUF 371 exchange rate is a bit too weak from the MNB's point of view.The press keeps stressing that the forint has weakened to its historical record low. This does not mean a lot, of course, but somehow the press tends to be in love with records. A more reasonable way of assessment...

The House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, the rapporteur of the Precatórios PEC should finalize his report today, and the Senate may vote on the bill that deals with the exchange rate framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2021

The rapporteur of the Auxílio Brasil MP, Deputy Marcelo Aro, included the annual increase of the program’s payments based on inflation. The extreme poverty line will increase from R$ 100 to R$ 105, and the poverty line, from R$ 200 to R$ 210. The text may still undergo changes during the voting p...

The IMF approves a very special decision for Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2021

The IMF Executive Board finally approved second review of the ongoing SBA program for Ukraine and extended the current program until end-June 2022. The completion of the review gives the green light for a $699 million wire to Ukraine. The press-release from the IMF was concise. In essence, the re...

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