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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Tourism and related branches extend gradual recovery but face new hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The most tourism-intense regions of the country and the economic sectors most dependent on the travel and hospitality business continue to mend, but at such a sluggish pace that remains far below pre-pandemic levels of activity. For roughly a decade, tourism served as a major catalyst of construc...

No letup in political risk, as government prepares tax package
PERU · Report · 22 Nov 2021

When Mirtha Vásquez was chosen by President Pedro Castillo to replace Guido Bellido as prime minister, most analysts took this as an indication that the president was moving toward a more moderate, conciliatory sociopolitical stance, and markets rallied in response. In fact, out of the eight mini...

Politics: Decision to ram through the 2022 spending budget sets the stage for future conflict
MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The Chamber of Deputies approved November 14, the 2022 federal expenditure budget with 273 votes in favor and 213 opposed. The governing camp introduced only two changes to the administration’s original proposal, which now projects slightly more than 7 trillion pesos in spending, but rejected abs...

A package of benefits and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The House included in its agenda the provisional measure (MP) that created the Auxílio Brasil and the urgent status request for the railroad framework bill and the carbon market bill, among others. In the Senate, Fernando Bezerra submits his report on the Precatórios PEC. Senator Angelo Coronel m...

Trade Balance and Balance of Payments
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The recession of 2020 undermined imports, contributing to a steep decline in the current accounts, which were not sufficient to offset the outflow of capital. With this, the balance of payments was negative, while the foreign exchange flows were partly satisfied by sales of the Central Bank in th...

Forecast revisions after the mid-term elections
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 22 Nov 2021

The defeat of the government coalition in the midterm elections seems to have encouraged President Alberto Fernandez to pursue an agreement with the IMF. He probably considers that going into arrears with the official creditors will affect governance in the two remaining years of his mandate, whi...

Rates on hold, FX intervention dependent on the state of the economy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

There were no surprises in the rate hold decision. The statement noted that those countries which hiked have inflation above target. In Israel market expectations are at the high end of target (but within) and forecasters and the BoI model expect lower inflation in the next 12 months. Regarding F...

The rapporteur of the Precatórios PEC should submit his report on the text tomorrow, the Senate’s CAE has scheduled a public hearing on Petrobras’s pricing policy, and the PSDB primary election was postponed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The goal is for the vote on the Precatórios PEC to take place in the Committee this week. The government will have to change the text and, with that, part of it may have to return to the House. Petrobras President Joaquim Silva e Luna, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes and Minister of Mines and Energ...

Shekel appreciation continues; expected to moderate inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Nov 2021

GDP growth is expected to reach close to 6.5% this year and 4.8% in 2022; the output gap will narrow but will still remain somewhat disinflationary. Inflation is expected to reach 1.5% NTM, as a strong shekel offsets (in part) other inflationary factors. We do not expect a rate change today; the ...

Inflation in Russia at 8.1%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

On November 18 the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosstat) said that inflation in October 2021 was at its highest level since 2015. The Central Bank of Russia has raised interest rates several times in a failed attempt to curb this. The key rate is 7.5% and is surely going to rise. It is anticipated ...

Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

The odds have practically fallen to zero following the President’s non-cryptic remark last week that a presidential candidate uses cocaine. Without naming Marcos (popularly called by his nickname “Bongbong” and shortened to “BBM”), he described the candidate as rich but said that he was a “weak l...

Shekel appreciation continues; expected to moderate inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2021

GDP data in Q3 was “decent” GDP growth reached 2.4%, but was up 3.5% excluding taxes on imports. Private consumption excluding durables increased by 5.1%. Investments improved, both residential and non-residential. Exports disappointed Annual GDP growth in 2021 will mostly come in closer to 6.5% ...

Georgian ex-president close to death on hunger strike
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2021

Mikheil Saakashvili has been refusing to eat for 50 days. He is in a prison hospital. A doctor recommended that the ex-president be moved to an ordinary hospital. Saakashvili has been losing consciousness. Even if he ends his hunger strike now he may have sustained permanent neurological damage.S...

A first take on an unprecedented experiment
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2021 · 2 responses

We address three FAQs on the current market turmoil. Take this as a first, but relatively comprehensive take at a quickly evolving situation. The questions are: Why is Ankara doing this? Where do we go from here? How is this different from the 2018 Pastor episode?

13 soldiers killed in Azerbaijan-Armenian fighting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2021

On November 19 Yerevan announced 6 fatalities had been sustained in skirmishes on the ceasefire line, and 13 more taken prisoner. The Azerbaijanis say 7 of their men were killed. Most of the fighting took place on November 16. This is the worst fighting since the 2020 war. Both sides have now agr...

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