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GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s fiscal deficit eased in 2021, Bahrain’s record Q2 current surplus, violence in Iraq & Libya threatens oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped on recession fears, despite potential production concerns, and an OPEC+ cut is not expected. * OPEC+ sharply revised its forecasts and now sees a 300k b/d supply deficit in 2023, particularly in Q4. * There were...

Playing LEGO with Colombian security
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A la Obama or Trump, Gustavo Petro initiated his presidency with apparent use of executive orders. They don’t even need to be written down -- just uttered into the presidential microphone, in any meeting, before any small population, at any time of day. In most instances, the new approach comes t...

Petrobras will reduce the price of gasoline today, a series of good economic indicators may improve Bolsonaro’s popularity, and demonstrations in support of Bolsonaro have been scheduled for next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2022

Petrobras will reduce the price of a liter of gasoline at its refineries by 7%. As a result, the average price of gasoline for distributors will decline from R$ 3.53 to R$ 3.28 per liter. President Jair Bolsonaro said that if he needs to appoint an eighth president of Petrobras, he will. He said ...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2022

* The Ukraine War continues, with neither side making much progress and bombardments decreasing. * Western military and financial aid to Ukraine is lessening. * Russia has reduced energy sales to the EU and increased them to China. * The Black Sea Grain Initiative is working smoothly, allo...

Economy minister Nagy stole the day in the local media yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2022

Mr. Nagy, lately the government cabinet member to announce bad news, formerly vice governor of the MNB, spoke on the role and the likely future of administrative price controls on the radio the day before yesterday. Essentially, he said that administrative price caps (on fuels and basic food item...

Chairman of Russian oil company dies from falling out of the window
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2022

On September 1 the Chairman of LUKoil fell from the window of a Moscow hospital. It is not known what Ravil Maganov was in the elite hospital for.Earlier in 2022 another top LUKoil executive died in suspicious circumstances. He was Alexander Subbotin.LUKoil said in March 2022 that the Ukraine War...

Armenia seems to be helping Russia evade sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Russia has tried to get around sanctions through parallel imports. Armenia has recorded a 50% YoY increase in trade with Russia in Q1 and Q2 2022. Russia has always been by far its biggest trade partner. In that same time Armenian manufacturing has grown only 2.7%. It is suspected by Western dipl...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Aug 22 CPC: The company has suspended the operation of two of the three remote berthing devices at the marine terminal due to damage Aug 23 Agriculture Ministry: Kazakhstan expects grain harvest in 2022 at the level of 18.3 mln tons (vs 16.4 mln tons in FY 2021) Sberbank: The bank announced that ...

The 2023 Federal Budget was submitted to Congress yesterday, a special secretary for the Treasury and Budget of the Ministry of Economy called for a reformulation of the Federal Budget system, and a presidential poll will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2022

The Budget bill provides for an average Auxílio Brasil payment of R$ 405 for 21.6 million families. The total amount reserved for this purpose is R$ 105.7 billion. Polls indicate that some voters are not convinced that President Jair Bolsonaro will keep the payments at R$ 600 next year. The R$ 60...

Russia’s deflation holds for another week and m-o-m deflation in August could be around 0.6%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 29, consumer prices fell by 0.16% w-o-w. The MTD deflation reached 0.54%. It brought down the YTD inflation to 10.38%. In recent weeks deflation was caused primarily by seasonally falling fresh fruit and vegetable prices. Though some other food...

President Tokaev offers to boost liberal economic reforms and hold an early presidential election
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

President Tokaev (69) suggested holding an early presidential election this year, limiting the presidential term by seven years and not allowing re-election. Mr. Tokaev delivered these proposals in his address to the nation at a joint meeting of the lower and upper chambers of the parliament. As ...

Banks’ lending expands in July across the board pointing to a recovery in economic activity
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2022

Ассоrding to statistics recently published by the CBR, banks provided more loans to the economy in July than in any previous month since March. From March, outstanding credit to other financial and non-financial organizations contracted, while in July, it resumed growth. Total credit grew by 2.7%...

Growth picks up sequentially in Q2
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2022

The Turkish economy grew by 7.6%, y/y, and 2.1%, q/q. While annual growth is broadly in line with expectations, quarterly or sequential growth (calendar- and seasonally-adjusted) presents a somewhat different picture than envisaged, with growth momentum picking up noticeably over the previous qua...

Rare good news on the energy front
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2022

Foreign minister Szíjjártó announced today a new bilateral agreement with Russia on the shipment by the latter of up to 5.8 million cubic meter of natural gas daily throughout September and October, after the shipments of 2.6 million cms per day over the bigger part of August. Hungary used up 11....

The 2023 Federal Budget will be submitted to Congress today, two presidential polls will be published today, and Bolsonaro’s biggest obstacle in the presidential race is his high rate of rejection
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2022

Proposals have been submitted to Congress that postpone the implementation of the culture laws, opening up at least R$ 3.8 billion of space in the Budget. The Ministry of Economy reported that the postponement of the investments in the cultural sector was approved in order to meet the 2022 spendi...

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