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Kairat Satybaldy was sentenced to 6 years of imprisonment. He is also now forbidden from holding positions in the civil service or the National Bank or any company where the state owns over 50%. He was arrested in March 2022 and his sentence is counted as having started then. He is a major genera...

This is the last week before the election, the first round of the election will take place on Sunday, October 2, and TV Globo will hold the final presidential debate on Thursday, September 29.

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2022

This is the last week before the election. Advertising on radio and TV runs until Thursday, September 29. The same day, TV Globo will hold the final debate between the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. So far, all the main candidates are likely to attend. This will be a decisive week...

Some signs of slowing growth could tilt the rate decision towards 0.5%

ISRAEL · Report · 26 Sep 2022

1. Recent economic indicators point to some growth deceleration, despite strong business confidence. 2. This soft data could tilt the next rate decision (Oct 3) towards a 0.5% hike, but 0.75% remains a strong possibility in light of global “frontloading”. 3. With inflation y/y likely to rem...

The current account surplus widens in 2Q22

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Sep 2022 · 1 response

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the country’s current account surplus widened in 2Q22 and reached $4.135 bn. In 1Q22, it was at $2.512 bn. Hence this surplus reached $6.647 bn in 1H22. In 2021 the current account was in deficit each quarter, and its annual deficit was at $5.737bn. N...

Russian anti-draft protestors drafted

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2022

Since the mobilization of 300,000 reservists was announced on September 23 there have been protests in several Russian cities. The police have arrested protestors, and in the cases of young men, handed them draft notices. The police confiscate the passport of the detainee and then use the informa...

Uzbekistan blocks Russian payment system

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2022

On September 23 the Central Asian country stopped the Mir payment card. Over half the Russian population holds such a card. Mir is accepted by Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Vietnam. It is thought that Uzbekistan stopped Mir because of the fear of secondary sanctions. Uzbekistan has...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2022

The decision to call referendums in Donbas and neighboring regions and the announcement of partial mobilization in Ukraine pushed the Russian financial market significantly lower. As a result, the yield for 10-year OFZ moved to double-digit territory, for the first time since the end of May, whil...

Three polls will be published today, Lula is unlikely to attend the debate tomorrow, and the STF begins judgment on whether the Difal can be collected this year

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2022

The Datafolha poll published yesterday shows an increase in Lula's advantage over Bolsonaro. Lula rose from 45% to 47% and now has a 14-point advantage over Bolsonaro, according to the institute. The President remained stable at 33%. Ciro Gomes has 7%, and Simone Tebet, 5%. Lula is unlikely to at...

GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp. * Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production. * There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear de...

Another 75-basis point repo rate increase by the South African Reserve Bank despite slowing inflation

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Staying its course of policy normalization, the South African Reserve Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate by another 75 basis points during the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) September meeting. With the repo rate climbing to 6.25% from 5.5%, the prime lending rate also increases, to 9.75% f...

Another 100 bps cut from the CBRT

TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 100 bps to 12% (simple) today. While this wasn’t the consensus expectation, we are not terribly surprised, as we had given more than even odds to such a move (see last Sunday’s Tracker). The MPC statement is almost identical to the previ...

Pro-Russian rebels release 10 foreigners

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

On September 21 the pro-Moscow Forces unexpectedly freed Britons, Croats, Americans, a Moroccan and a Swede. The ten men had been accused by the pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic administration in East Ukraine of being mercenaries. Some of them had been sentenced to death. The men were freed ...

Putin calls for "partial mobilization" – an extra challenge to deal with

UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

Well, we are moving to the "next level" of the war. Until Sept 21st, 2022, the Russian population was observing the invasion from the outside of the field, just cheering their team. Sanctions created some minor inconveniences but it’s nothing compared to the hardships Ukrainians had to pass throu...

Putin announces partial mobilization

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

On September 21 the president said that 300,000 men will be called up. He said that NATO countries had used nuclear blackmail against Russia. Putin reminded the world that Russia possesses nuclear weapons, too. He warned that if Russia's territorial integrity was threatened then Russia would resp...

Hurricane Fiona strongly impacts the eastern and northeastern provinces of the country

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Sep 2022

Hurricane Fiona made landfall in the Dominican Republic early Monday with winds of 150 kilometers per hour. It had a strong impact on east and northeast regions, mainly affecting the provinces of La Altagracia, El Seibo, Hato Mayor, Samaná, Duarte and María Trinidad Sánchez. So far there has been...