GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

1. Inflation in February surprised on the upside and remains both sticky and broad-based. 2. Most macro factors support weaker inflationary pressure going forward, except for the likelihood of further shekel weakness. 3. At this stage, we expect a 0.5% rate hike on April 3, as the BoI is li...

Saudi Arabia’s ratings improve while Kuwait’s political crisis deepens

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2023

There were some significant and potentially market-moving developments in the Gulf over the weekend and so we are putting out a quick note, rather than waiting to roll up our analysis into our weekly briefing on Friday. * Saudi Arabia received a rating upgrade from S&P and a positive outlook f...

Russia evades sanctions by ordering from Kazakhstan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 17 Reuters reported that Russian companies are ordering Kazakh companies to buy forbidden items from the West on their behalf. These items are then sold to Russia. Russia is also doing this via Turkey and other former Soviet states. It seems that Turkey is now taking action to stop its c...

January BOP data slightly disappointing, no rate cut likely on March 28

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

Well, January BOP, published today, was not really splendid. If it had been only about the trade account, it would have been great, the annualised single-month deficit ratio falling to 1% of GDP from 2.8% in January 2022, the merchandise deficit doing reasonably well (stable in absolute terms, do...

Explosion at Russian internal intelligence office

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 16 it killed 3 people and injured others. It is unclear if the explosion was caused by enemy action at Rostov on Don. The regional governor said that this explosion was caused by electric wiring. Ukraine has not commented on the incident. Ukraine has carried out numerous attacks in Russi...

Webinar replay - Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy

HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2023

How will Hungary’s tight monetary and fiscal policies serve it in 2023 amid economic recession? With rapid BOP improvement on markedly decreasing energy import prices paired with weak domestic demand, will there be disinflation? How will Hungary’s continuing outlier status within the EU and NATO ...

Justice Lewandowski granted the injunction requested by the PCdoB on the State-Owned Companies Law, Minister Haddad will present the new fiscal framework today, and today is the last day for senators to collect signatures for the January 8 CPI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2023

Justice Ricardo Lewandowski responded to the PCdoB's request for an injunction and suspended parts of the State-Owned Companies Law that restrict the appointment of politicians to management positions. He is the rapporteur for the case in the STF that questions the law. Today, the Minister of Fin...

Belarusian President in Iran

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

On March 13 President Lukashenko met his Iranian counterpart in Teheran. The two presidents signed an agreement on cooperation up to 2026. Belarus is not fighting in Ukraine but is allowing Russians to attack Ukraine via Belarus. Iran is part of Lukashenko's tour of the few authoritarian states t...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

Brent/Urals spread recently narrowed to about $25/bbl (from $32-34/bbl seen in December). Although, it didn’t support the ruble as Brent fell below the $75/bbl benchmark amid renewed concerns about a global slowdown. The current thinking is that the economic problems may turn more acute amid rece...

Slide presentation - Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy

HUNGARY · Report · 16 Mar 2023

Get insight into Hungary's macroeconomic outlook and the foreign policy challenges it's facing with the presentation from our webinar, "Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy".

The chairs of the standing committees in the House were selected, Haddad should submit the new fiscal framework tomorrow, and the PCdoB called for the urgent suspension of measures of the State-Owned Companies Law

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2023

The two most important committees in the House will be chaired by the PT: the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) and the Finance and Taxation Committee (CFT), The Senate Committees have already been installed. As a result, legislative activity should pick up pace starting next week. The Min...

Russia downs US drone

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

On March 14 a Russian fighter jet downed a US MQ 9 drone over the Black Sea. The US said the Russians had been flying irresponsibly close to the drone in international airspace. Russia said its aircraft did nothing to the drone. Ukraine said Russia's action proves that Russia is taking action aga...

Inflation continues to surprise on the upside

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

Inflation continues to surprise on the upside February’s CPI came in at 0.5% m/m (expectations were for 0.3%) and 5.2% y/y (down slightly from 5.4% last month). Core inflation remained stable at 5.1% y/y. Several service items surprised on the upside such as domestic vacations (3.5% m/m) and hous...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Iran ties restored, Qatar and Abu Dhabi reshuffle officials, Saudi Q4 GDP & fiscal data

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed in China to restore diplomatic relations after a 7 years hiatus. * Saudi GDP grew by 5.5% in Q4 and 8.7% in 2022 as a whole, close to the flash estimates. * Transport, finance and business ser...

The outlook for private investment

INDIA · Report · 09 Mar 2023

During the pandemic, at first, the biggest firms fared rather well, and this was reflected in the earnings growth of listed companies. There are two problems with this post-pandemic growth. First, this was a case of the biggest firms’ gaining share, which could only happen for a limited period of...