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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The CCJ of the House votes on Dep. Freitas’s report on the extension of the payroll tax exemption, Sen. Bezerra has confirmed that the Senate will change the Precatórios PEC, and the new Auxílio Brasil payments will be issued today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2021

After being put to a vote in the CCJ, the payroll tax exemption bill will go to the Senate. President Jair Bolsonaro has announced his support for extending the exemption for another two years. Depending on the change to the Precatórios PEC, the text may have to return to the House. But even if i...

​Mid-week update: Cracks surface in Republic Alliance, Kilicdaroglu promises mutual forgiveness
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Nov 2021 · 2 responses

As the Turkish Lira heads for Hades, the percolating political debate might have something to do with at least corporates buying more FX. I shall share my personal views on the exchange rate, but politics, too is heading for a four-car-pile up on the highway, which takes precedent. I must explain...

Watching the recovery – household data remains weak
INDIA · Report · 16 Nov 2021

The pandemic has largely subsided, google mobility data is close to pre-pandemic conditions, and a nice export boom is in place. But the view of household data is concerning. Household data shows a weak recovery after the peak of the second wave in May 2021. The Indian labor market is mostly a cl...

Now The Ball is in The Central Bank’s Court
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2021

Although Precatórios PEC destructed the fragile fiscal framework, the reactions of the foreign exchange and interest rate markets have been moderately positive. The explanation is cynically simple: “It could be worse”. With this, the Real appreciated, closing last week at R$5.45/US$, and at the l...

GDP growth misses expectations in Q3 with +2.4% y/y amid record-high grain harvest
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

The state statistics office reported 2.4% y/y GDP growth in Q3. The result is far below expectations. The NBU just a few weeks ago estimated a 4.0% y/y GDP increase for the third quarter. Poor industry performance (near-zero growth through the quarter), as well as sluggish agro production (+7.2% ...

The MNB raised 30bps... or maybe more (?)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

The Monetary Council held its monthly rate-setting meeting in a difficult situation, but its decision largely met the challenge.In response to the nearly runaway mode inflation took in October, the MNB took the following decisions:1. It raised the base rate and the interest rate corridor by 30bps...

Issues surrounding President Bolsonaro's affiliation with the PL arise, the CAE should analyze the bills presented by Sen. Jean Paul Prates and Sen. Nelsinho Trad, and the MP that created the Auxílio Brasil program will expire in about three weeks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2021

Bolsonaro’s affiliation with the PL was scheduled for November 22, but yesterday he said that he hopes to resolve the issues in two or three weeks. Bolsonaro is against an alliance with the PSDB in the state of São Paulo. The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate will analyze the report ...

Germany suspends certification of Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

On November 15 Berlin said it cannot continue the process until a German company is established to manage the pipeline. Nord Stream 2 AG is a Swiss-registered company that currently owns the pipeline. The company can establish a German subsidiary, and that will satisfy Germany's demand. The asset...

Q3 GDP growth moderately below analyst forecasts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

GDP growth for Q3 has been reported at 0.7% qoq, 6.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis this morning. In two domestic polls, the analyst median expectation was 7.2 and 7.4% yoy. Our own forecast was 6.8% yoy.Even though no breakdown was given by KSH, as usual with first estimate GDP report...

Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

What we know at this time:The period for filing of substitute candidates is over. Presidential daughter, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte, decided to run for vice president under the party of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Presidential aspirant Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. who is running under a less...

Economics: Pemex and CFE results combine minor gains, continuing risks, and no energy transition
MEXICO · Report · 15 Nov 2021

The country’s national oil and electric power companies released their third quarter results just as delegates were starting to assemble in Glasgow for COP26. Positive takeaways from Pemex included an extension of the gradual uptrend in crude production alongside a smattering of new well discover...

Russian macro: how Minfin’s actions hamper the effectiveness of CBR policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Russian federal budget revenues soared this year and exceeded the initial annual plan by 8.9% in 10M21. Oil-and-gas revenues were 21.8% higher than expected, while the rest of the revenues were 2.1% above the planned annual amount. In 10M21, the government spent 85% of budgeted expenditure, which...

Politics: Violence and public insecurity pose risks of crisis in tourist areas
MEXICO · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Crime-fueled violence continues to plague Mexico, with around 3,000 killings per month. With the growth in organized crime and drug cartels, their presence along with the associated violence and killings, has also intensified and spread to different parts of the country. Examples of this progress...

October’s CPI surprises sharply on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2021

October’s CPI increased by 0.1% m/m (consensus expected 0.4%), and declined to 2.3% y/y from 2.5% last month. The main surprise came from the “travel abroad” item (3.7% of the basket) which declined by 7.9% contributing -0.3% to October’s print. This is rather surprising considering restrictions ...

EU announces sanctions on Belarus over border crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2021

On November 15 Brussels said it is sanctioning various Belarusian entities whom it holds responsible for bringing several thousand illegal immigrants to the borders of Poland and Lithuania. The new sanctions are due to target 30 entities and individuals such as travel agencies and airlines that h...

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