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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Stormy start of October: Pandora Papers and the dismissal of the Parliament Speaker
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

The start of October appeared to be rather stormy for Ukrainian elites. The Pandora Papers as well as the removal of Parliament Speaker Dmytro Razumkov from his post have changed a lot on the Ukrainian political landscape. I do not expect immediate consequences from both events. However, in the m...

Governor Yaron sounded very optimistic today, sees possibility of higher rates one year from now
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

Very optimistic tone from the BoIThe rate hold decision came as no surprise but the general tone was very optimistic with much stronger GPD growth forecasted this year (7% instead of 5.5% previous forecast) and remaining robust in 2022 (5.5%). Yaron sees the possibility of a rate hike one year fr...

Sérgio Moro’s presidential candidacy may be announced next week, former President Lula will give a press conference this Friday, and Dep. Hugo Motta should submit his report on the court-ordered payments PEC today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2021

Sérgio Moro's candidacy will add yet another possible candidate, further favoring the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula. Lula’s goal with the press conference is to gain space in the media. The court-ordered payments PEC will likely receive a request for review of the text, and the vote in ...

OFZ: manageable near-term issuance target, ambitious long-term plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Oct 2021

Russia’s Finance Ministry released its tactical (for 4Q21) and strategic (for 2022-24) borrowing plans last week. The former looks quite moderate (R505 bln), while the latter remains ambitious (R3.6 trln annually). Nevertheless, the cash position of the government is still comfortable, which allo...

Turkey and Azerbaijan hold joint military exercises
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

On October 5 a three-day drill began. It is called "Unshakable Brotherhood". The two countries speak virtually the same language. The drills are taking place in the Nakhchivan Exclave. This area borders Turkey, Armenia and Iran. It involves drones, tanks and planes, as well as ground troops. They...

Populist policy to keep inflation elevated over the next months
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

According to Rosstat, inflation in September reached 0.60% m-o-m - inflation YTD, and y-o-y reached 5.32% and 7.4%. Inflation in seven days ending October 4 was at 0.26%. Out of it, 0.15%, Rosstat allocated to the first four days of October. In September, prices started to grow across the board, ...

​UAE: $4bn federal bonds issued; prospectus sheds some light on the federation and Sharjah
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Oct 2021 · 1 response

The $4bn issuance was slightly larger than initially indicated, pricing close to Abu Dhabi as expected. It was largely opportunistic as the federal government rarely runs a deficit and even this year it's unlikely to be much more than -$1bn, with most of the bond proceeds going into the investmen...

Good fiscal data, combined with a cooling economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2021

We have got somewhat mixed feelings, having seen the most recent macro data releases.On the one hand, the general government deficit by Eurostat's ESA-2010 methodology, i.e. the main policy indicator on fiscal balance, was an excellent 4.2% of GDP in H1, 0.5%-point below the corresponding data fo...

Sen. Roberto Rocha submitted his report on the Tax Reform, Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto may have to appear before Congress regarding their offshore accounts, and Arthur Lira will vote on a proposal that changes the calculation of fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2021

Senator Roberto Rocha’s report provides for the creation of a dual Value Added Tax (VAT). One part creates the CBS tax and the other, the IBS tax. The Senate approved the new railroad legal framework. The text will now go to the House for further analysis. The Committee on Work, Administration an...

Beijing’s Evergrande solution
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Oct 2021

Beijing believes the risks of a US-style financial crisis caused by a property bubble outweigh the risks of an Evergrande default. But it is also encouraging a “soft” landing for the resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems that would avoid political unrest and a bank crisis. How will Beijing res...

No news is... no news
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2021

The communiqué issued in Mexico on September 27, 2021, indicates the parties' willingness to continue negotiating and make the negotiations more inclusive through a consultation and participation mechanism involving political and social, national and international, actors. The government swiftly ...

Reports show Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto have offshore companies, the Senate may vote on the railroad framework today, and a partner of the logistics company VTCLog, Raimundo Nonato Brasil, testifies in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2021

Randolfe Rodrigues (Rede-AP), submitted a request to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to open a preliminary investigation against Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto. The PSOL caucus in the House has started collecting signatures for the opening of a CPI on this issue. Despite the discomfort, the...

Coronavirus surging in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2021

On October 5 the record for daily deaths was surpassed yet again. There were 895 deaths from coronavirus in 24 hours. The total death toll from the pandemic is 211,000 which is the highest in Europe.A new rise in cases has caused several regions to reintroduce restrictions for the first time sinc...

Economics: Indicators in September suggest the recovery may be slowing
MEXICO · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Economic data released in September provided further confirmation that the Mexican economy continues to sustain some momentum as the country’s vaccination efforts advance, with just over half of the population's having received at least one dose, and there is a further relaxation of mobility rest...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Oct 2021

With a good pace of vaccination against Covid-19, 71% of Brazilians have now received at least the first vaccination dose. With this excellent adhesion, together with the widespread use of masks, for the past few weeks the moving average of daily deaths has been oscillating around 500. All the sa...

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