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Russia building closer relationship with Serbia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2022

Billboards have appeared across Belgrade hailing the Russian Foreign Minister as, ''the world's greatest diplomat''. Russia is keen to underscore the similarities between itself and Serbia. Both are Orthodox Christian, Slavic and former socialist countries. Both have clashed with the West since t...

South Africa’s economy contracts during Q2 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2022

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP contracted by 0.7% during the second quarter of 2022, following the first quarter’s expansion of 1.7% q/q. Despite the recent quarterly contraction, real GDP in H1 2022 was still 1.4% higher than that of the corresponding period in 2021. Today’s GDP figu...

Politics: AMLO’s fourth annual report to Congress anticipates a complex political endgame
MEXICO · Report · 06 Sep 2022

President López Obrador used this year’s annual report to Congress to tout his signature social programs and public works. His fourth and penultimate annual narrative of his own administration once again focused on drawing distinctions between his government and those of his predecessors of recen...

Leading Russian newspaper loses license to print
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Sep 2022

On September 5 a court rescinded the Novaya Gazeta license to print. The newspaper still exists online. The chief editor of the paper, Dmitry Muratov, was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2021. Muratov said that the ruling was political. The newspaper claimed to have been ''killed'' and noted that seve...

Economics: Another month filled with new signs of economic weakness
MEXICO · Report · 06 Sep 2022

Economic news last month showed continuing growth, including a 2% yoy expansion of GDP for the April-June quarter that extended to all sectors as construction bounced back from a slightly negative first quarter to expand 1.1%. The main driver was a 3.3% increase in industrial output, with manufac...

China and Russia cooperating on nuclear energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Sep 2022

On September 1 China started building the hulls for four floating nuclear power plants. These will be used to provide energy for an enormous mining project in the Russian Arctic. The mine is in Baimskaya, in Chukotka. There will be other plants, too. The floating nuclear power stations will be op...

The IPEC poll shows stability in the presidential race, tomorrow is Brazil’s Independence Day, and Pacheco meets with Barroso to discuss the national nursing salary floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

According to the poll, former President Lula has 44% of intended votes and President Jair Bolsonaro has 31%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 8% and Simone Tebet (MDB), 4%. IPEC also polled the intended votes for the second round. Lula would win by 52% to 36% against Bolsonaro. We are on the eve of the Septe...

August inflation at 6.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2022

Consumer prices continued to trek up in August but at a slower rate of 0.4% month-on-month. The slower climb translated into a headline inflation rate of 6.3%, down from July’s 6.4%, as softening crude oil prices helped offset some of the increases in food prices. Despite the deceleration in the ...

The Temporary GDP Growth in The Second Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

GDP growth in the second quarter was 1.2%, greater than our expectation of 0.8%. This prompts us to project growth of 3% for the year. Although expansion of the global economy contributed to this result, it was mainly the fruit of the strong fiscal stimuli, which increased consumption and gross f...

The latest polling trends and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

There are high expectations regarding the demonstrations on September 7 for the 200th anniversary of the Independence of Brazil. Several presidential polls will be published. On Friday, September 9, the IBGE announces the inflation rate for August. This week’s Talking Points: * The lat...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West split to remain unreconcilable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

Sad news came on August 30, 2022, as thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, its first and last president, Mikhail Gorbachev, passed away aged 91. His death looked symbolic amid this year’s developments in Russia as the country left behind its thirty-year period of some kind of partn...

Reading economics in chess
INDIA · Report · 06 Sep 2022

Indians have done well in chess for a long time. In September 2022, 11 of the top 50 teenagers were from India. This underlines the upper tail capabilities in India in the eyes of global decision makers. The rebranding of India was shaped by the comic strip Dilbert’s “Asok” character in the 19...

The cancellation of non-tradeable bonds should support tradeable assets
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Sep 2022

1. Last week, the shekel weakened by 3.1% against the basket, pushing up our inflation forecast to 2.7% (from 2.5%) in the next 12 months. 2. Non-tradeable bond issuance to pension funds will be cancelled as of October 1, supporting demand for alternative tradeable assets (especially equitie...

Chile's constitutional referendum: Boric's options.
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

With an historic turnout of 86%, Chileans overwhelmingly have rejected the draft proposed by the constitutional convention. This brings to a close the process initiated on 15 November 2019, when the political parties sought a way out of the violence and protest of the Social Explosion. But it doe...

A temporary respite thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 1.5% in August (consensus, median: 2%), which, as far as our (slightly lower than median) forecast is concerned, owed a great deal to softer (unprocessed) food inflation in the month. Twelve-month CPI rate nevertheless rose slightly further to 80.2%, ...

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