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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

September’s CPI was in line with expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Oct 2021

September’s CPI was in line with expectations Inflation in September rose by 0.2% and 2.5% y/y (up from 2.2% in August). Core inflation accelerated to 2.1% y/y from 1.9% last month. The main items which surprised on the upside were processed food prices (up 0.6% and 2.7% y/y) and fruits and veget...

Russian oil supermajor sells stake in Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2021

On October 14 Rosneft sold its 5% stake in a huge Arctic Oil project to Swiss and Singaporean commodity trading houses. This is the Vostok Oil Project, which is intended to exploit currently untapped resources in the Arctic and produce over 700 million barrels of oil per annum by 2030. That was R...

The House approved the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels, the court-ordered payments PEC may be put to a vote next week, and the Senate agenda is becoming congested
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2021

Currently, the ICMS tax on fuels is calculated based on the average price, revised every 15 days according to a price survey at the service stations. In other legislative progress, after approval in the Committee, which has been scheduled for next Tuesday, the court-ordered payments PEC may be in...

Putin: Russia will be carbon neutral by 2060
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Oct 2021

On October 14 the Russian President announced the new policy. His country is the 3rd biggest emitter of carbon due relying so heavily on oil, gas and coal exports. Putin said oil and coal will be used less and less. It had been mooted that Russia would give itself 80 years to be carbon neutral bu...

​Hectic political agenda warrants a mid-week Brief
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2021

I intended to pen this Market Brief yesterday,focusing on Erdogan’s hint at a new military campaign in Tel Rifat (Map below) and the rising chorus of opposition leaders taking claims of political assassinations seriously. Within 24 hours, a major scandal broke out concerning TUGVA, an educational...

Russian budget: medium-term budget plan – policy to stay, only the numbers to change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2021

In September, the government submitted the 2022-2024 rolling budget to the Duma along with the estimate of the budget execution in 2021 and the medium-term economic outlook. The government has usually been very conservative in its estimates and frequently drafted the budget with a deficit, but th...

The House votes on the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels, Minister Paulo Guedes has several meetings in Washington DC, and the Pandemic CPI decides not to summon Minister Queiroga for a third testimony
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2021

Yesterday, the rapporteur of the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels, Dr. Jaziel, submitted a favorable report. As a complementary bill, it needs at least 257 votes in the House. In Washington DD, Minister Paulo Guedes will participate in the 4th Meeting of Finance Ministers and Presidents...

​Que Sera, Sara
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Oct 2021

What we know at this time:The period for filing of certificates of candidacy (COC) closed last Friday and six publicly recognizable figures are running for the presidency. In alphabetical order: Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso, Senator Ronald dela Rosa, Senator Panfilo Lacson, former Senator Ferd...

Economics: Electricity sector reform proposal entails major risks for the Mexican economy
MEXICO · Report · 12 Oct 2021

In the latest chapter of the current administration’s efforts to roll back the energy sector reform that was fully adopted in 2014, on the final day of September it presented Congress a constitutional reform proposal focused on the electrical power industry. Well before we have gotten a clear loo...

Politics: Exploring various scenarios as to how the electricity sector reform might play out
MEXICO · Report · 12 Oct 2021 · 1 response

When President López Obrador unveiled at the end of September his package of constitutional reforms designed to turn back the clock and reassert state control over the electric power sector, it might have seemed like a politically reckless move. He had been promising such a reform proposal for we...

Federal budget surplus soars amid high price of oil and rising inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2021

The federal budget surplus reached R0.367 trln and R1.444 trln in September and 9M21. The government collected 95.5% of the formally approved 2021 budget plan already in 9M21. Oil-and-gas tax collection during this period exceeded the annual plan by 3.3%, while high inflation helped collect 91.9%...

Duque’s sad swan song
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Oct 2021

As President Iván Duque starts walking into the sunset (a new president will take office in 10 months), a pressing concern apparently plagues his thoughts: no incumbent would like to see voters exhibit change of heart and elect a successor from the opposite side of the political spectrum. But giv...

A powerful rebound - and prospects for tax reform
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Oct 2021 · 1 response

The probability that the Dominican economy will end 2021 with growth of close to 10% is increasing, given accumulated growth of 13% in January-August, compared to the same period in 2020. But not everything is rosy. Although formal employment has returned to nearly pre-pandemic levels, overall un...

Monetary Policy – The Hour of Truth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Oct 2021

To satisfy the inflation target at the end of 2022, after having attained the level of 8.25% at the end of 2021, the Central Bank will have to raise the SELIC rate to 9.5% at the start of next year. The cost of a “sufficiently restrictive” monetary policy will be to keep the GDP gap open during a...

Broad tax reform has a low chance of approval this year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Oct 2021

This is a short week in Brasília due to the October 12 holiday. In the House, the focus will be on the discussion of the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels. The rapporteur of the bill on Auxílio Brasil may submit his report. In the Judicial branch, the STF will analyze the constitutionali...

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