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Income Tax Reform may be archived and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2021

A hectic week in Brasilia: the House will try to vote on the court-ordered payments PEC in order to make room for the Auxílio Brasil program in the budget, and in the Senate, the focus is on the vote on the final report of the Pandemic CPI. The TSE will judge a case that calls for the cancellatio...

Slower third-quarter growth tells us about next year
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 Oct 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Chinese third quarter growth came in well below market expectations, but these expectations had always been unrealistically high. The latest data show just how important it is to understand the various components of Chinese growth and the inverse re...

Moldova: state emergency as gas runs out
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2021

On October 22 the country was driven to this decision because it does not have enough gas from its usual supplier: Russia. Russia has raised prices. Moldova is seeking affordable gas from the EU. Gazprom raised prices from USD 550 per thousand cubic meters in September 2021 to USD 790 in October ...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2021

* Inflation and income stagnation continue to dog Russia despite there being some economic growth. * Nord Stream 2 has been completed and is being tested. * Azerbaijan held military drills with Turkey. This is to deter Iran as much as Armenia. * Uzbekistan is in dialogue with the Ta...

Guedes defends the change in the spending ceiling, the CAE holds a public hearing to discuss the Income Tax Reform proposal, and the Pandemic CPI votes on the final report tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2021

Guedes also called for Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco to make progress with the reform proposals. Despite the poor timing, Guede's statements should not interfere with the vote on the court-ordered payments PEC in the House. In the Pandemic CPI, Senator Calheiros recommends the indictment of 66...

Cancellation of non-tradeable bonds likely to be positive for the long end of the curve
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Oct 2021

The Finance Committee of the Knesset approved the cancellation of non-tradeable government bonds as of July 2022, paving the way for Knesset approval by November 10, 2021. We view this reform as significant, expected to increase depth and liquidity in the bond market, and possibly supportive of t...

Cancellation of non-tradeable bonds likely to be positive for the long-end of the curve
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Oct 2021

Non-tradeable bond issuance is likely to be cancelled in mid-2022.This will require higher tradeable bond issuance (an additional 35bn annual) in order to meet fiscal financing requirements. Demand for this increase in issuance could be less than 35bn as pension funds diversify their assets, in p...

Anything may happen, any minute
TURKEY · Report · 24 Oct 2021

An unexpectedly deep rate cut by the CBRT and a weekend outburst of expelling 10 ambassadors from friendly nations, compels us to revisit Erdogan’s decision-making capacity, once again. We offer visual evidence of his declining cognitive powers, concluding that his policy actions may not be refle...

Russian interest rate raised: again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2021

As expected on October 22 the interest rate went up to 7.5%. The country contends with a triple whammy of coronavirus surging, a second lockdown and rampant inflation. The economy has returned to its pre-coronavirus size earlier in 2021. The recovery was faster than anticipated and beat most majo...

Pandemic/political update: economic woes dominate, the epidemiological situation deteriorates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Oct 2021

Since early September, when Russia’s daily incidence rate fluctuated around 17-18K people, the number of registered cases doubled, having jumped to 36K on October 21 and over 37K on October 22. Vaccination remains slow, despite the high daily death toll – over 1K in recent days. Note that the dea...

Prospects for 2021-2022: rapid growth, high inflation
HUNGARY · Forecast · 22 Oct 2021

In our previous quarterly forecast, published in July, we wrote of the unusually high degree of uncertainty for this year, naming Covid, inflation and the prospective access to EU funds as the related main factors. Since then, uncertainties have decreased in a moderately positive way regarding Co...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar reshuffles cabinet, Kuwait prepares pardons, Bahrain talks with donors
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Oct 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases and deaths are down about -95% from their peak, and restrictions are being lifted. * The IMF’s REO gave fiscal breakeven oil prices for 2022 from $44 (Qatar) to $107 (Bahrain). * Saudi Arabia is in a dis...

Four members of the economic team resign after a solution to the court-ordered payments PEC and Auxílio Brasil issues was announced. The president of the TSE should schedule analysis of cases calling for the revocation of the Bolsonaro-Mourão ticket
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2021

The Special Secretary of the Treasury and Budget, Bruno Funchal, and his assistant, Gildenora Dantas, stepped down. The secretary of the National Treasury, Jeferson Bittencourt, and his assistant, Rafael Araujo, also left the ministry. The court-ordered payments PEC was approved by the Special Co...

A trapped president
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Oct 2021

President Lasso is trapped in a power battle with the Assembly, which is the omen of a lose-lose situation unless both sides seek ways to lower the political heat. Ever since the CAL rejected the mega-bill project, conflict between the parties has escalated, with mutual accusations. Finally, Lass...

The NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 8.5%, new increase likely in December
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 8.5%. The decision went in line with the consensus forecast. At its last communication in September the NBU made it clear that a further prime rate increase is highly undesirable. The market reflected this message at the consensus forecast despite th...

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