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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consolidation of the fiscal side
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The Indonesian government is in a balancing act toward fiscal consolidation in the midst of its effort to further stimulate the economy. By law, the budget deficit should be set below 3% starting in 2023. So far, defying the skeptics, the outcome is encouraging, even though it might be deraile...

China to fund the defense of Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2021

On October 30 Dushanbe approved of a new Chinese-funded base on the border with Afghanistan. The government has offered to give full control of the extant Chinese base to Beijing and to make it rent-free in return for being given weapons gratis. That is according to confidential documents as repo...

Winter has come
TURKEY · Report · 31 Oct 2021 · 1 response

As Erdogan meets European leaders and President Biden on the sidelines of G20 Summit, his presumably declining health comes to fore for two reasons. First, the world press is now alerted to the notion and will scrutinize his behavior closely. Secondly, if Erdogan were to suffer another health eme...

The shekel appreciated sharply last week, probably due to less FX intervention by the BoI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Oct 2021

The pace of shekel appreciation has accelerated The shekel appreciated by 1.5% last week (against the basket of currencies), and by 1.7% in October, as BOI intervention declined. Yet, Pressure for appreciation is likely to continue on strong fundamentals and FDI. Nevertheless, we maintain our inf...

Moldova and Russia makes gas deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Oct 2021

On October 29 Gazprom signed a deal with Moldova. It extends the current contract. Moldova had declared a state of emergency after Gazprom raised prices. Moldovia is a former Soviet country. It made its first ever gas deal with a country other than Russia in a desperate bid to secure affordable e...

Good news for The Bahamas. How to fund the key political promise of reducing VAT is answered very positively.
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2021

In his supplementary budget presentation on Wednesday afternoon, Prime Minister Philip "Brave Davis" announced that the promised reduction in VAT from 12 to 10% will be achieved in a revenue neutral way by eliminating the zero rating under VAT of a variety of items. He further claimed that the Mi...

Tajikistan sabre rattling towards the Taliban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2021

Tajik troops have massed on the border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan's longest border. The poverty-stricken country of 5 million cannot beat Afghanistan, which has 32 million people. The Taliban has also inherited state-of-the-art military technology that the US left behind. Some say that the Tali...

Recovery and corruption
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Oct 2021

Costa Rica’s economic activity continues recovering, after COVID-19’s disruptive effects. External demand is the main driver, as shown by short-term indicators. In fact, most of the dynamism comes from the export-oriented free-trade zones, while the so-called “definitive regime” lags far behind. ...

The Court-ordered payments PEC may allow the government to guarantee additional payments for low-income people, next week a possible truck drivers’ strike may pose an issue, and the 5G auction may raise up to R$ 49.7 billion
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2021

There are rumors about the possibility of bringing back the emergency aid payments, as well as the state of emergency. The government could increase the value of the Bolsa Família by 20%, ensuring each beneficiary receives at least R$ 400. Voting on the PEC is scheduled for Wednesday. Regarding t...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi & Bahrain pledge net-zero, Kuwait oil capacity declines, Qatar plans citizenship reform
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Oct 2021 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia and Bahrain made 2060 net-zero pledges. * Saudi Arabia issued a record number of investment licenses in Q3, persuaded more multinationals to base their regional HQs in Riyadh and saw improved attendance at th...

Webinar Replay: Central America and the Caribbean
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Oct 2021

Gain insights into the issues that matter the most for the Central America and Caribbean region, focusing on El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Panama, and The Bahamas. Visit our calendar page to watch the webinar replay.

The relevance of mining in recent growth does not correspond to its fiscal importance. The political situation is impeding reforms to the pension program and to exiting the GAFI and EU gray lists.
PANAMA · Report · 29 Oct 2021

We discuss four issues in this report: (1) the importance of copper mining, now and in the short term, for the country’s real activity, the balance of payments and government revenues, as compared with the importance of the Panama Canal (ACP); (2) the negative implications of the inclusion of Pan...

​Delta watch 7
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Oct 2021

Government today announced that Metro Manila will remain under alert level 3 until November 14. The 5-level alert system was introduced in mid-September with “1” being the least restrictive and “5” the most restrictive. Metro Manila was downgraded from level 4 to level 3 in mid-October. Alert lev...

2021–2022 forecast: more benign scenario won’t end hardship
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 28 Oct 2021

We continue to see severe hardship ahead for most Venezuelans. Nonetheless, our revised forecast scenario is slightly more benign than that of three months ago. We revise up our outlook for growth. We now see a 2.5 percent pace of expansion for 2021, up from our earlier projection of 0.8 perc...

Inflation Report: Rate cuts to continue
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Oct 2021 · 1 response

The CBRT released the final Inflation Report of the year today (presentation here; overview chapter here). The year-end inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were raised further to 18.4% and 11.8% (both midpoints), respectively, from 16.2% and 9.8%, in the September MTP. This year’s inflation for...

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