GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Industrial output grew 3.5% y/y in January-July, up 0.1 pps from H1. In January-July, investment rose 5.7% y/y, down 0.4 pps from H1. In particular, the investment growth rate in July was down 2.4 pps from June. High infrastructure investment has been flattened by reduced real estate investment. ...

Electoral campaigns will start on TV and radio on Friday, the first debate between presidential candidates will take place this Sunday, and Lula has started making moves toward groups that are closer to Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

While having a good amount of TV time during the elections is important in communicating with voters, having the most TV time does not always guarantee electoral success, especially in presidential races. The presidential debate will be held jointly with Band, TV Cultura, UOL and Folha de S.Paulo...

Russian sovereign debt: The primary market may reopen in autumn

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

The fiscal situation in Russia deteriorated significantly in the middle of the year, and we expect the nation’s budget deficit to reach R1.2-1.5 trln for FY22. Despite the fact that the main source of funding the deficit is the National Wealth Fund, we don’t rule out that the Finance Ministry may...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Aug 5 NC KMG: In 1H22 KazMunayGas increased oil production (including gas condensate) by 0.3% y-o-y and gas production by 0.8% y-o-y Aug 10 NCOC: Oil production has resumed at the Kashagan field, suspended due to a gas leak at one of the facilities Aug 11 Energy Ministry: Oil production at the Ka...

The TSE announced the TV times for each presidential candidate, Lula and Bolsonaro have started addressing their government plans, and the presidential candidates will be interviewed next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

Lula (PT) will have the longest time: 3 minutes and 39 seconds plus 286 30-second ads. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will be entitled to 2 minutes and 38 seconds and 207 ads. Lula said that the main Brazilian public companies will not be privatized. He cited Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econ...

Russia reinforces Kherson

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Ukraine is building up forces for its stated objective to retake Kherson. Pundits doubt that Ukraine can retake it with infantry. However, Russia is moving in more troops to Kherson. Some of these are elite paratroopers. Russia now has about 20,000 troops in Kherson. Ukraine has taken villages ne...

Consumer prices continue to fall in August

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 15, consumer prices fell by 0.13% w-o-w bringing the MTD deflation to 0.23%. Inflation YTD fell to 10.72% Prices continue to fall across a wide range of products, albeit some selected protein-containing foodstuffs became more expensive, such as...

The Datafolha poll is scheduled to be published today, Bolsonaro continues to make promises to the electorate, and the Federal Police asked for permission to indict Bolsonaro for spreading fake news about the COVID-19 vaccine

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2022

In Datafolha’s most recent poll, published on July 28, Lula had 47% of voters' intentions, and Bolsonaro, 29%. It will also publish polls for the three largest electoral states in the country, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro said the government does not yet know what the sa...

Fanning the flames

TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised the markets --and us-- today by cutting the policy rate (one week repo) by 100 bps to 13%. There are a couple of revisions in the usual accompanying statement (link here), which, parenthetically, is about 100-150 words longer than the previous one (which is...

Of electrons and tax reforms

COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Petro administration submitted its tax reform proposal to Congress in August instead of October, out of sync with the usual timing. This was the first major act of the new government, which speaks volumes. Unsurprisingly, the expected yield is nowhere near the COP 50 trillion (3.5% of GDP, us...

Election campaigns begin, Minister Alexandre de Moraes assumes the presidency of the TSE, and the working group on the ICMS issue meets

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro will have some difficulties ahead. According to the polls, he is behind his main opponent, former President Lula, and has the highest rate of rejection among the candidates. Both Bolsonaro and Lula are expected to attend the inauguration ceremony at the TSE. Their partici...

Five Europeans on trial for their lives in East Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2022

On August 15 the pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk began to try a Croat, a Swede and three Britons. They have been charged with being mercenaries and face the death penalty if convicted. Three foreigners have already been sentenced to death for being mercenaries in Donetsk. So far no one has been exe...

Politics: State of Mexico elections are key to the 2024 presidential race

MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2022

Although still 10 months away, the 2023 elections in the State of Mexico are already shaping up to be a key political battle, with nationwide implications for the 2024 elections. The importance of this gubernatorial race is not only because the State of Mexico is the country’s most populated and ...

The American Economy and the Brazilian Scenario for 2023

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Aug 2022

To formulate scenarios for 2023, a fundamental piece of the current puzzle is the evolution of the economy in the United States. Initially, it is necessary to distinguish the effects of high-frequency movements of the S&P500 on the IBOVESPA (a large part of the recent recovery of the IBOVESPA has...

The 2022 ANC Elective Congress and Its Emerging Possible Outcomes

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

As mentioned in our previous reports, 2022 is a critical year for SA’s democratic political evolution. The governing party, The African National Congress (ANC), is heading for its all-important December 2022 National Elective Congress at which the Party’s new leadership structures and its “presid...