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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Export sector continues to grow even as obstacles slow the pace of recovery
MEXICO · Report · 18 Oct 2021

The export sector has been the main driver of Mexico’s economic recovery so far in 2021, but that catalyst has not been firing evenly on all cylinders. As industries make up for the time and output lost last year, most branches’ installed capacity utilization has recovered to, or improved upon pr...

Problems Involving the Discrepancy of the Data in the Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Oct 2021

Until 2017, the data on imports and exports gathered by the Secretariat of Foreign Commerce (Secex) of the Ministry of the Economy and by the Central Bank had few discrepancies. Since 2018, however, the two data series have been increasingly deviating from each other. While in 2020, the Secex reg...

Politics: US-Mexico "framework" a good outline, but very short on specifics and commitments
MEXICO · Report · 18 Oct 2021 · 1 response

It is unquestionably positive that Mexico is talking with the White House after the Cienfuegos affair severely damaged ties a year ago, and that the October 8 High-Level Security Dialogue produced a joint outline of bilateral priorities to be addressed immediately, especially in matters of combat...

The outlook for pending legislation and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2021

The Special Committee of the House votes on the court-ordered payments PEC. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, will then try to hold the first round vote in the plenary. In the Senate, this is the last week of activity in the Pandemic CPI. The final report will be submitted on Wednesday. Vo...

The IMF reports Staff-Level Agreement, conditionality is not clear
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2021

A month of online negotiations and the IMF mission finally gives an encouraging signal: a staff-level agreement and an extension of ongoing SBA Program till June 2022. However, the press-release mentions that only “Continued steadfast implementation of strong policies in these areas, consistent w...

Turkey Covid Watch - October 18, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2021

Cases rose and then fell during the past two weeks, while deaths remain persistent. If the very recent trends persist, this will help stem building pressures on the health sector, but we are not so sanguine that this will turn out to be the case.

Rumors circulate about Minister Paulo Guedes resigning, truck drivers may organize another strike on November 1, and O Globo will hold a debate between the PSDB’s pre-candidates on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2021

We think the rumor about Minister Paulo Guedes’s resigning is unlikely to be true. A possible explanation for the rumor is the pressure for the extension of emergency aid payments. Regarding the possible truckers’ strike, we think it will be small — if it occurs at all. O Globo will hold a debate...

Worries on inflation overshadow the strength of the recovery
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Oct 2021

In the weeks immediately before the primary elections, the government thought that a stronger-than-expected economic recovery would favor its electoral chances. But the results proved otherwise as inflation overshadowed the strength of economic recovery. In spite of the clear evidence that inflat...

Coronavirus cases reach record in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2021

On October 17 Russia broke its own record for new diagnoses yet again. 34,000 new cases have been reported. There were almost 1,000 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours. There are only 20,000 beds left in hospitals. These will all soon be full.The Health Minister urged all retired physicians to get vac...

Opposition primary vote has been won by a non-party politician
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Oct 2021

The second round of the united opposition's primary election, which was intended to select the common candidate for prime minister in next April's parliamentary election, ended last night. It drew 662 thousand voters, 29 thousand more than the first round, meaning truly great electoral interest, ...

Buckle up
TURKEY · Report · 17 Oct 2021 · 1 response

October brought more Brownian motion to the boiling cauldron of Turkish politics, which makes it even more difficult to read the trends. We spot the slow-motion collapse of Erdogan’s power as well as the fortunes of the AKP-MHP alliance. The administration has lost its ability to control the nati...

China's energy shortage is an opportunity for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Oct 2021

Several Chinese provinces are rationing electricity due to a paucity of power. In late September 2021 China asked the Russian electricity company Inter RAO to supply more electricity.China is striving to go carbon neutral by 2060. This will change the energy market considerably. In the medium ter...

All roads lead to Mexico but no one travels them
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Oct 2021

A new round of negotiations was scheduled to begin in Mexico tomorrow, October 17. At the time of writing, the Maduro government announced it suspends negotiations in protest against Alex Saab’s extradition to the United States by Cape Verde on money laundering charges. It’s too soon to tell how ...

GULF WEEKLY: IMF forecasts improve, Moody’s stabilizes Oman, Sadr wins the Iraqi election
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Oct 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, and Saudi played down a faster taper. * The IMF’s latest WEO forecasts see the GCC returning to a general fiscal balance in 2023. * MBS launched the Saudi National ...

Bolsonaro says he is considering privatizing Petrobras, the STF begins analysis of the ADI on the extension of the payroll tax exemption, and the court-ordered payments PEC may be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2021

Given the difficulty the government faced in approving the privatization of Eletrobras, Bolsonaro is unlikely to start another political battle for the privatization of Petrobras at this time. His statement, however, does help to show the general public that he remains dissatisfied with the rise ...

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