New cabinet reshuffle: when changes change nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

The media wrote that already this week new people will take seats in the Cabinet. This is nothing new. We heard about inevitable replacements in the Cabinet back in June. But it took some time for the ruling group to deliver this new reshuffle. As David Arakhamia, the Head of parliamentary factio...

​Economic growth remained strong in September and 3Q21, though the 4Q21 looks more challenging amid rising incidence rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

The Rosttat reported that real incomes in Russia grew y-o-y by 4.4% and 7.6% in 9M21 and 3Q21. In 3Q21 real incomes were higher than in 2Q21 by 4.5% (not seasonally adjusted). Similar numbers for real disposable incomes were 4.1%, 8.1%, and 4.6%. Both real incomes and real disposable incomes are ...

The origins and consequences of opposition splinters
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Nov 2021

The question as to whether to boycott elections has caused a progressive splintering of the opposition. Some individuals and groups bent on participating in elections officially break off from their parties or coalitions to do so; others simply participate in disregard for their parties’ official...

China’s property bubble and the wealthy – who will win?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Nov 2021

China is struggling with reducing the property bubble while maintaining adequate housing for the population along with adequate growth in the property sector. Now, there is talk of an expansion of local property taxes to replace land sales as a source of revenue. Can China restructure its revenue...

Russia imposes digital passes due to coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

On November 1 TASS news agency reported the new scheme. People will have to show a pass to enter certain buildings. The system was used in Moscow briefly in the summer of 2021. The scannable barcode system will combat the spread of black market passes and forged vaccination certificates. Russia i...

A big step is made towards ending the domestic debt moratorium
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2021

The statutory moratorium on bank debts, introduced for domestic households and non-financial enterprises as a protection against the initial Covid shock in March 2020, ended in its original form yesterday (October 31). So far, the aforementioned types of borrowers have enjoyed the right to a mora...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The news about the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil continues to be upbeat: the seven-day moving average of the number of deaths is stable at around 300, and 74% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, while 55% have completed the immunization cycle. However, there are big di...

Economics: New reform, inflation and supply bottlenecks are among growth risks
MEXICO · Report · 01 Nov 2021

Economic data released in October provided further confirmation that the Mexican economy continues to sustain some momentum even as year-earlier comparisons are no longer as easy as they had been. Private consumption and retail sales continued to expand but have yet to fully rebound to pre-pandem...

Politics: Civil society organizations under fire from AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 01 Nov 2021

Next year’s miscellaneous tax bill contains provisions that would deliver a serious blow to civil society organizations (SCOs) involved in charitable endeavors. Currently individuals can deduct up to 7% of their income for charitable donations, plus an additional 15% for other expenses such as he...

The polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula will continue and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021

A crucial week for Auxílio Brasil –​ if the Court-ordered payments PEC is not approved in the House, the government will resort to a Plan B that includes the return of the Emergency Aid program. A truck drivers' strike is scheduled for today. Anatel will hold the 5G auction this week. This wee...

Turkey Covid Watch - November 1, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The downward trend in cases that started two weeks ago has solidified with cases falling, albeit at a moderate pace.

Tentative IMF deal struck, as presidential popularity tumbles, and recovery wanes
UKRAINE · Report · 01 Nov 2021

Autumn is traditionally intense in Ukraine, and this year is no exception. A staff-level agreement with the IMF, the Pandora Papers, the replacement of the speaker, the president’s falling ratings, and a new, more virulent wave of COVID-19 are only the most important issues. Two long-awaited e...

The truck drivers' strike today should be small, the Court-ordered payments PEC should be put to a vote on Wednesday, and the 5G auction should be held on the same day
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The truck drivers’ strike is expected to be small today. Isolated strikes are expected to take place, and efforts will be made to demobilize the demonstrations. Regarding the Court-ordered payments PEC, the government still doesn't have enough votes (308) to approve the text but there is room for...

South Africa’s recovery is driven by the commodity price boom– but tapering off
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 01 Nov 2021

Households: South African households took a big hit from the Covid-19 pandemic, and domestic demand has expectedly been adversely affected.Even though household consumption expenditure has undergone a relatively fast recovery, downside risks remain. Unemployment: Unemployment once again reache...

Consolidation of the fiscal side
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The Indonesian government is in a balancing act toward fiscal consolidation in the midst of its effort to further stimulate the economy. By law, the budget deficit should be set below 3% starting in 2023. So far, defying the skeptics, the outcome is encouraging, even though it might be deraile...