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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government bond purchases by BoI to come to an end on robust outlook
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Oct 2021

The BoI sounds increasingly optimistic BoI expects growth to reach 7% this year and 5.5% in 2022. The cumulative growth forecast (12.9%) is 1% higher than previous forecast. Broad unemployment is expected to reach 5.2% in Q422 from present 7.9%. Inflation to reach 2.5% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022. T...

It’s getting quite ugly here
TURKEY · Report · 10 Oct 2021

Recent polls herald significant drops in the approval ratings of the President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance. Erdogan and his ally Bahceli seem unable to adopt new economic policies to reverse the decline. With the opposition organizing better each day and uniting around common causes, it now ...

Russian inflation rises fast
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2021

On October 7 data were released about inflation showing it reached 7.4% per annum in September 2021 according to Rosstat, the state statistical agency. This is the highest inflation since 2016, which was itself a fairly heavy year for inflation. Inflation is worse than anticipated. It was 6.7% in...

Peru: President Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 08 Oct 2021

On Tuesday night, October 5, President Castillo, dismissed his controversial Prime Minister Mr. Guido Bellido and reshuffled his Cabinet. Overall the message is positive. Mr. Bellido was a highly controversial individual and many times undercut President Castillo. The latest was the nomination of...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P positive on Oman, Saudi PMI at 7-year high, IPO boom continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Oct 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil surged to $83 as OPEC+ held steady, and LNG is equivalent to oil at over $300. * In the latest signs of regional de-escalation Qatar’s foreign minister visited Abu Dhabi, an Emirati official talked positive on Turkey, ...

The railroads legal framework was approved in the Senate, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC submitted his report on the text in the House, and former President Lula will give an interview this morning
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2021

Deputy Hugo Motta, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC, withdrew the possibility of paying in installments. The vote on the text was scheduled for October 19. The Plenary of the House approved the summoning of Paulo Guedes to provide an explanation on the offshore issue. Next week wi...

Inflation picture turned even more ugly in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2021

CPI-inflation for September was reported as 0.2% mom, 5.5% yoy this morning, the yoy headline rate rising to a 9-year peak level, quite sharply up from 4.9% in August. Core inflation also rose markedly, to 4% yoy from the previous month's 3.6% yoy. Analysts expected 5.4% yoy and the MNB, in its l...

Stormy start of October: Pandora Papers and the dismissal of the Parliament Speaker
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

The start of October appeared to be rather stormy for Ukrainian elites. The Pandora Papers as well as the removal of Parliament Speaker Dmytro Razumkov from his post have changed a lot on the Ukrainian political landscape. I do not expect immediate consequences from both events. However, in the m...

Governor Yaron sounded very optimistic today, sees possibility of higher rates one year from now
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

Very optimistic tone from the BoIThe rate hold decision came as no surprise but the general tone was very optimistic with much stronger GPD growth forecasted this year (7% instead of 5.5% previous forecast) and remaining robust in 2022 (5.5%). Yaron sees the possibility of a rate hike one year fr...

Sérgio Moro’s presidential candidacy may be announced next week, former President Lula will give a press conference this Friday, and Dep. Hugo Motta should submit his report on the court-ordered payments PEC today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2021

Sérgio Moro's candidacy will add yet another possible candidate, further favoring the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula. Lula’s goal with the press conference is to gain space in the media. The court-ordered payments PEC will likely receive a request for review of the text, and the vote in ...

OFZ: manageable near-term issuance target, ambitious long-term plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Oct 2021

Russia’s Finance Ministry released its tactical (for 4Q21) and strategic (for 2022-24) borrowing plans last week. The former looks quite moderate (R505 bln), while the latter remains ambitious (R3.6 trln annually). Nevertheless, the cash position of the government is still comfortable, which allo...

Turkey and Azerbaijan hold joint military exercises
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

On October 5 a three-day drill began. It is called "Unshakable Brotherhood". The two countries speak virtually the same language. The drills are taking place in the Nakhchivan Exclave. This area borders Turkey, Armenia and Iran. It involves drones, tanks and planes, as well as ground troops. They...

Populist policy to keep inflation elevated over the next months
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

According to Rosstat, inflation in September reached 0.60% m-o-m - inflation YTD, and y-o-y reached 5.32% and 7.4%. Inflation in seven days ending October 4 was at 0.26%. Out of it, 0.15%, Rosstat allocated to the first four days of October. In September, prices started to grow across the board, ...

​UAE: $4bn federal bonds issued; prospectus sheds some light on the federation and Sharjah
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Oct 2021 · 1 response

The $4bn issuance was slightly larger than initially indicated, pricing close to Abu Dhabi as expected. It was largely opportunistic as the federal government rarely runs a deficit and even this year it's unlikely to be much more than -$1bn, with most of the bond proceeds going into the investmen...

Good fiscal data, combined with a cooling economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2021

We have got somewhat mixed feelings, having seen the most recent macro data releases.On the one hand, the general government deficit by Eurostat's ESA-2010 methodology, i.e. the main policy indicator on fiscal balance, was an excellent 4.2% of GDP in H1, 0.5%-point below the corresponding data fo...

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