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It’s encouraging
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Aug 2021

It’s encouraging that, according to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Venezuelan government and the opposition Unity Platform on August 13 in Mexico City, the goal of the Norway-mediated talks will be to set down new rules of the political game consistent with the Constitution. Th...

Politics: Media and freedom of the press under assault from politicians and cartels
MEXICO · Report · 23 Aug 2021

When a leader of one of the most powerful drug cartels in Mexico posted in recent days a video threatening the main anchor of a national news service with death if she did not suspend her reporting on the group’s activities, it was just the latest terrifying episode in an extended history of mou...

Taliban victory leads to mixed feelings in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2021

Russia has kept its embassy in Kabul open and flattered the Taliban effusively. There is schadenfreude in Moscow about the bedlam in Kabul. One politician bragged that soon pro-US Ukrainians will see the Americans abandon them.Moscow has striven to develop a working relationship with the Taliban....

Lessons learned from the Income Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2021

Bolsonaro may file a request for impeachment against Minister of the STF Luís Roberto Barroso. The Senate is analyzing Augusto Aras's appointment as Prosecutor General of Brazil (PGR). Deputy Arthur Maia (DEM-BA) may read his report on the Administrative Reform proposal. In the STF, two matters m...

The “Floating Fiscal Anchor” and Its Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Aug 2021

In the past several weeks, the risk premiums have grown significantly, accompanied by a marked increase of the entire structure of the yield curve and renewed weakening of the Real. The main factor underpinning this reaction is the realization that the spending cap has become a “floating fiscal a...

Turkey Covid Watch - August 23, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 23 Aug 2021

Cases declined over the past few weeks, albeit at a slow pace. The Ministry of Health announced that 90% of cases are currently of the Delta variant.

A wasted summer
TURKEY · Report · 23 Aug 2021

The politics section starts with an assessment of President Erdogan’s mental condition, an issue now brought up by the opposition. He may be experiencing momentary lapses of memory or early signs of dementia. This non-medical diagnosis suggests decision making in Ankara will likely become even mo...

Pres. Bolsonaro submitted an impeachment request against Min. de Moraes and may submit another against Min. Barroso. The STF should analyze the autonomy of the Central Bank and the exclusion of the ISS in calculating the PIS and Cofins taxes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2021

Rodrigo Pacheco has said that he does not believe there is technical, political or legal basis for the impeachment of the STF ministers. The rapporteurs of the Administrative Reform proposal in the House and the Tax Reform proposal in the Senate should submit their reports on the texts. Today, 24...

Rates remain unchanged as well as forward guidance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Aug 2021

Rates remained unchanged today at 0.1% with the monetary statements noting both the uptick in infections (but hopeful that the booster shot will slow this trend) as well as the strong economic recovery. The output gap is at 3% in Q221, compared to the previous assessment of 4.5%. There is a hirin...

GDP growth likely to reach nearly 7% this year
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Aug 2021

* Robust GDP numbers in the 2nd quarter and an upward revision to the 1st quarter reflect a strong economic recovery, less supportive of monetary accommodation. * Job vacancies continue to move higher despite strong employment growth. * Consumer confidence has weakened on concerns regard...

The Center-Left’s “Consultation”
CHILE · Report · 23 Aug 2021 · 1 response

Yasna Provoste, the Christian Democratic president of the Chilean Senate, has won the Unidad Constituyente (UC, or Constituent Unity) primaries, held on Saturday. The Chilean presidential election is now essentially a four-horse race, representing the far left, far right, center left and center r...

The Refidomsa deal
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Aug 2021

On August 19, the government of the Dominican Republic announced the purchase of 49 percent of the shares of the Dominican Petroleum Refinery (Refidomsa) held by PDV Caribe (a Pdvsa subsidiary) for €74 million ($88 million), $43 million less than what PDV Caribe paid in 2010 ($131 million). The D...

GDP growth likely to reach nearly 7% this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Aug 2021

Highlights of weekly macro review:GDP growth surprises on the upside GDP growth reached 15.4% saar in Q2 (on strong PC growth) and Q1 growth was revised sharply upwards. GDP growth is 3.2% above pre-Covid level (in real terms). Assuming modest growth in 2H21, annual growth likely to reach 7%. Thi...

The Dominican State bought PDVSA's shares in REFIDOMSA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Aug 2021

Yesterday the Minister of Finance, Jochi Vicente, announced the completion of the purchase operation of 49% of the shares of the Refinería Dominicana de Petróleo (REFIDOMSA) that were owned by Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), for an amount of USDS88.1 m. PDVSA had acquired the shares in 2010 for a...

Growth robust for now, but tapering may hurt
UKRAINE · Report · 20 Aug 2021

H1 2021 was marked by poor economic performance, as industrial output stagnated along with contracting agro-production following poor harvests in 2020. GDP recovered in Q2 by a modest 5.4% y/y, after plunging 11.2% y/y a year ago. Yet there was a strong revival in private consumption, as retail t...

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