GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

GDP shrank by 0.4% qoq but grew by 4.1% yoy, by seasonally adjusted data, in Q3. This means that economy minister Nagy, who indicated a similar number a week ago, was right, whereas the MNB's so far quite reliable-looking WEAI index, on which we based our Q3 forecast, was dead wrong. The WEAI, pr...

A loss in central bank efficacy

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Monthly inflation for October closed at 6 percent, in a sharp slowdown from September (12.0 percent) and August (16.2 percent). This slowdown occurred despite an accelerated pace of bolivar depreciation whereby the dollar spiked 8.2 percent against the bolivar in October after having gained only ...

The Kazakh economy keeps growing at around 3% with no surprises

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The country's Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 10M22 the short-term indicator grew by 3.1% y-o-y delivering no major surprises – as opposed to smaller and less industrialized countries, such as Georgian and Armenia, where an inflow of Russians had much more visible effect. According...

Zelensky visits Kherson

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On November 13 the president visited the city that was recently retaken by Ukraine. He said that there is evidence of 400 war crimes committed by Russia. He said on TV this included murdered civilians. Zelensky said that Russian troops looted shops and even took zoo animals as well as laying mine...

Politics: Mexican authorities struggle to respond to the exponential rise in femicides, which are still vastly underreported

MEXICO · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Homicide statistics show that the number of women murder victims has been climbing since 2007, when a thousand such deaths were registered. That toll had climbed to around 4,000 by 2021, the most recent year for which data has been available from Inegi, the source of the most complete records. Th...

Politics are winning over economics

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Bloomberg just published a story about significant new support for China’s property market. Measures announced thus far include asking banks to extend 1 trillion yuan in emergency support for the property market by end-2022, reducing interest rates, and, according to Bloomberg reporting, develope...

Russian immigration boosts economies of other former USSR countries

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

Since February 2022 Russians have emigrated in increasing numbers. They have often moved to poorer former USSR countries particularly: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. In September 2022 there was a spike of emigration due to the mobilization. Housing in major c...

The details of the Transition PEC should be outlined on Wednesday, Lula travels to Egypt today for COP27, and tomorrow is a national holiday – Proclamation of the Republic

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2022

According to Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), who is the budget's rapporteur and the person who will also report on the PEC in the Senate, the terms of the proposal will be negotiated with party leaders on Wednesday, November 16. He also said that the idea would be to permanently remove the Auxíl...

De-risking and Chinese equities

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

There is pressure, primarily from the U.S. pension and retirement funds, to “de-risk” by reducing the weight of Chinese equities in overall portfolios. The official China data for September 2022 show net portfolio outflows. Future months are likely to show negative growth as de-risking sentiment ...

First impressions from the Beyoglu terror attack

TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On Sunday 4 pm, a bomb exploded in the busy entertainment venue, Beyoglu, killing six and injuring 81. The death toll could increase further. The female suspect was apprehended immediately, after which the police conducted broad raids netting about 80 alleged accomplices. The suspect claims she ...

US holds talks for Armenia and Azerbaijan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2022

On November 8 the two Caucasus nations met in Washington to try to resolve their border dispute. In the past week there has been shooting across the ceasefire line. The US Secretary of State met with representatives of both countries. Privately US officials recognize that a permanent peace is unl...

The federal budget still in surplus in 10M22

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

The Ministry of Finance preliminary reports that the federal budget was in surplus in 10M22 as revenues exceeded R22.1 trln while expenditures were at R22.0 trln. As the ministry stopped publishing detailed fiscal accounts, including adjustments it makes regularly to initial estimates of the budg...

Webinar replay - Colombia: Easier said than done

COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Nov 2022

Get insight into Colombia's macro economic and political outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia: Easier said than done", featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing Colombia's politics and governance, monetary policy, and how the country ...

Ukrainian forces entered Kherson

UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

We have many photos evidencing that Ukrainian forces entered Kherson. Below is the photo of the central square of Kherson with the Ukrainian flag and people gathering with Ukrainian national symbolic. It looks like the main Russian forces indeed have left the west bank of Dnipro river.

Challenges in assembling the new government and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

The government transition team will be installed under the coordination of future Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). President-elect Lula (PT) will have meetings with the presidents of the House, Arthur Lira (PP), the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), and the STF, Rosa Weber. The Transition PEC w...