NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...

Macro outlook ahead of the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Aug 2021

Contrary to former elections, some of the key electoral positions will be defined through the primaries. This is a change from former years, when the primaries were usually mere “national polls”. The composition of the pre-candidates for Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) in the City and Province of B...

Economic activity surges, helped by improvement in vaccination coverage. The 2022 budget proposal comes to the legislature for approval with increasing participation of ACP transfers.
PANAMA · Report · 31 Aug 2021

IMAE for the second quarter showed an increase of 27%: April grew 21.3% year over year; May registered a 34.2% increase, and June, a 24.9% increase. This result is the consequence of a revision of the previously published IMAE figures: for April, growth was revised from 12.1% to 21.3%, and in May...

A rebound, as expected
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Aug 2021

As expected, Indonesia has seen a rebound in its economic growth. In Q2 2021, the Indonesian economy reported an increase of 7.07% year over year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 3.31%. This is the first positive growth in the economy since the start of the Covid-...

Politics: A political reform less about perfecting the system than turning back the clock
MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2021

It has taken well over 40 years and no less than a dozen political/electoral reforms to untether Mexico from the days of one-party rule to a solid yet imperfect system of electoral democracy with increasing alternation of power between parties. Reforms up until now have gone a long way toward mak...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Aug 2021

Bolsonaro’s diatribes during August obscured the long-awaited alleviation of the health crisis. The (belated) increased supply of vaccines is now allowing strong expansion of the number of vaccinated people, thus reducing the cycle of contagion and deaths caused by Covid-19. It is possible that w...

Lula nods to the center and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2021

The 2022 Federal Budget will be submitted to Congress this week. The House will analyze the changes that have been made to the Electoral Code. The government is discussing the bill on the payroll tax exemption with Deputy Jerônimo Goergen (PP-RS). Deputy Darci de Matos (PSD-SC) should submit his ...

Economics: Activity indicators proved encouraging in August, but risks remain in inflation and public finance stability
MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2021

Economic data published in August was nominally positive almost across the board, although the month also brought reminders of many continuing points of risk and how much the month’s positive numbers reflected the very depressed state of an economy that was largely in lockdown a year prior. J...

Rodrigo Pacheco to meet with Air Force leaders to discuss pro-Bolsonaro demonstrations set for Sep. 7, the 2022 Federal Budget should be submitted to Congress tomorrow, and the STF unlikely to conclude the case affecting demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2021

Administrative Reform is under analysis in the House. The rapporteur, Arthur Maia, plans to submit his report on the text this week. The court-ordered payments PEC is also under analysis and should be put to a vote on September 8. The bill on the Electoral Code should be put to a vote this week. ...

Russia provides support to Central Asian defense order
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2021

On August 26 it was reported that Russia has had orders for weapons and helicopters from Central Asian countries. The former Soviet republics in that region are apprehensive as the Taliban has taken over Afghanistan. The Taliban has taken possession of hundreds of tanks, APCs, artillery pieces an...

Today begins dialogue on the reform agenda proposed by President Abinader
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Aug 2021

Today begins the dialogue with the political parties on the reform agenda proposed by President Luis Abinader in his speech on last August 18, on the occasion of the first year of his mandate. The dialogue takes place within the Economic and Social Council. The representatives of the political pa...

Living with Covida Loca
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 30 Aug 2021

With the emergence of highly transmissible virus mutants and the use of repeated lockdowns to control surges in infections, we are revising our earlier premise that the economy could progressively open up as immunization expands. Rather, we now think the more probable scenario is that the economy...

The first hike is likely in Q322, if the Fed shifts bias as well
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Aug 2021

1. Recent economic data point to fairly robust growth at the start of Q322, as travel restrictions abroad support domestic consumption. 2. We cannot rule out a rate hike in Israel in Q322, assuming a rapid recovery and a tightening bias from the Fed. 3. Similarly, the surprising rate hi...

What does Xi Jinping’s "common prosperity" mean for the economy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2021 · 2 responses

Xi Jinping launched his vision for common prosperity officially in an internal meeting in the Politburo on August 17. This was a follow-on to the harsh regulations imposed on China’s technology sector. Although Xi has been using the term “common prosperity” for several years, its appearance in hi...

IMF gives Belarus USD 850 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2021

On August 24 it was announced that the money had been granted to Belarus despite the opposition and Western governments counselling against it. The Belarusian economy has suffered significantly from sanctions for the past 12 months. Meanwhile Belarus has banned the Belarusian Journalists' Associa...

Russian tech is gradually pushing out foreign tech in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2021

The Russian Government is determined to tame foreign online platforms especially for social media. Some speculate that the government intends to end these platforms in Russia by the close of 2021. That is improbable. The import substititon effort has been ongoing since 2018. This is partly a resp...