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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Industrial producer price inflation decelerates in September, for the first time in the last 12 months
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

Industrial producer prices rose by 1.8% mom, 42.7% yoy in September. The August data was +4.1% mom, +43.4% yoy. One could say that the deceleration was just marginal, as regards the year-on-year data at least. Yet, this was the first time over the last 12 months that a lower yoy number appeared t...

Russia and Iran's relationship deepens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

On November 5 Iran said it sold military drones to Russia but claims that was only before the Russia-Ukraine War began. Western countries have imposed additional sanctions on Iran, claiming that Iran sold drones to Russia in September 2022. Iran and Russia are both suffering from sanctions. They ...

Uncertainty about the Battle of Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2022

On November 4 Putin said that the civilians still in Kherson are being evacuated. He spoke about the shelling and the intensifying fighting.  Putin said that 49,000 of the 318,000 mobilized reservists who were called up in September 2022 have been sent to Ukraine. Open media sources have confirme...

QATAR: S&P upgrades the sovereign back to AA
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Hot on the heels of Moody’s positive outlook on Qatar on Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s has gone one step further and upgraded the sovereign back to AA, its level before all three rating agencies downgraded it by a notch in 2017 for a host of reasons including banking liabilities, the Quartet block...

Habemus tributum
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

After almost two months of discussions, the tax reform of the Petro administration is almost a reality. We say “almost”, because the texts approved by the Senate and the House are not identical, which means that a reconciled version will have to be approved early next week. As we do not expect an...

Spending plan 2023: budget deficit of 20.6% of GDP and huge spending on defense
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

Yesterday, on November 3nd, Verkhovna Rada approved spending plan 2023. It presumes a deficit of 20.6% of GDP or $30.7 billion. Also the plan defines huge spending on defense on the level of $27 billion or 18.2% of GDP (44% of total budget spending). The approved spending plan tells that the defi...

Major growth pressure looms
CHINA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2022

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly driven by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. Investment rose 5.9%, up 0.1 pps from January to August, and has been rising for two consecutiv...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil demand forecasts, Saudi VAT revenue dips unexpectedly, Saudi worries about an Iranian attack
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC hiked its long-term oil demand growth forecasts by about 2m b/d to 110m in 2045. * Gulf states largely mirrored the Fed rate hikes, as usual, bar Kuwait. * The IMF reduced most fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts, e...

A PEC will be negotiated to meet Lula’s campaign promises, the government is already seeking to broaden support in Congress, and Bolsonaro’s video speaking out against the roadblocks was effective
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2022

A Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) is being negotiated to guarantee the payment of the Auxílio Brasil program at R$ 600 next year. Alckmin also said that the purpose of the proposal is to guarantee the continuity of public projects and services. It is estimated that around R$ 200 billion w...

Webinar Replay – Brazil: After the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2022

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Brazil Political Analyst Lucas de Aragão discussing the election results, Lula's agenda, and how the victory will reshape Brazil's macro outlook.

October inflation shoots up to 7.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

The BSP’s job just became even harder. Today’s announcement that October inflation reached 7.7% exceeded analysts’ expectations (median forecast of 7.2%) and is near the upper end of the BSP’s 7.1%-7.9% forecast for the month. Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy ite...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022

Liquidity in the domestic market remains muted as a significant amount of cash was withdrawn from the banking system during partial mobilization. Given that interest rates on the retail deposits are relatively low, the return of these funds to the system may take much more time than was in March-...

Headline likely peaked, but…
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2022

Consumer price inflation came in at 3.5%, m/m, in October, broadly in line with the market consensus of around 3.6%, and slightly above ours, the latter stemming largely from a somewhat higher food inflation forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless increased further -- for the 17th consecutive mo...

Boric's pension reform proposal
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022 · 3 responses

In a nationally televised speech President Gabriel Boric announced his much-awaited plan for reforming Chile's pension system. The proposal consists of three elements: a 6% increase in contributions, financed by employers; a rise in the so-called Universal Guaranteed Pension to CLP250.000 (about ...

On social media Bolsonaro called for protestors to unblock the country’s highways, VP-elect Alckmin will meet with the Chief of Staff to formalize the government transition process, and negotiations for the presidencies of the House and Senate have begun
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2022

Several entities reported supply risks due to the protests. The Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP) sent a letter to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), notifying it about a possible lack of diesel in eight states. But the situation should improve after the president...

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