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Coronavirus in Russia worse than ever
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2021

On July 16 Russia suffered 799 coronavirus deaths. That is the highest ever figure. The trajectory is ever upwards. The official figure is 270,000 deaths thus far. The situation is so bad that the government has stopped publishing a daily update on the number of active cases. The reason given is ...

Bolsonaro is in stable condition and does not require surgery, the LDO was approved and Congress enters a formal recess on July 18, and a number of matters will be put on hold
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2021

The electoral fund approved in the LDO is about three times the amount approved in 2019/2020. The Pandemic CPI will be put on hold during the recess. The truckers' digital transport document was approved in the House yesterday.

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ compromise pending, Sultan visits Saudi, Fitch stabilizes Saudi outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE is willing to support an OPEC+ extension to end-2022 in return for a 0.5m b/d hike in its baseline. * JCPOA talks appear to be stalled until at least mid-August. * Coronavirus rates are improving in Kuwait and Oma...

Inflation in June: no surprises this time; core inflation remains low
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jul 2021

June’s CPI came in at 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y (up from 1.5% last month), in line with domestic forecasters (and our forecast), although Bloomberg had zero m/m as the consensus. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) reached 1.2% y/y (up from 1.0% last month). As expected, the h...

Russia building icebreakers for the Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2021

Shipyards in St Petersburg are building four nuclear powered icebreakers. Russia wants to assert its control over the Arctic. Global warming has meant that more of that ocean is navigable for more of the year than ever. Moscow hopes that it might even become navigable year round with icebreakers....

Bolsonaro was taken to São Paulo for treatment due to abdominal pain, the Pandemic CPI was extended for an additional 90 days, and the LDO is put to a vote in the Joint Budget Committee, the House and the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2021

If President Bolsonaro eventually requires surgery, Vice President Mourão will return from his trip to Angola to take over the presidency. Cristiano Carvalho, attorney of Davati Medical Supply in Brazil, testifies in the CPI. Yesterday, the House approved a bill that prohibits evictions until the...

Breakthrough with judicial reform: parliament approves reboot of the High Council of Justice
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jul 2021

We are witnessing a real breakthrough with judicial reform. We wrote previously that on June 29th parliament gave green light for reload of the High Qualification Commission of Justice (HQCJ) with dominating role of international experts in selection of the HQCJ members. The HQCJ is like an HR de...

Bolsonaro is taken to the hospital due to abdominal pain, the income tax bill should be put to a vote in the House in August, and Francisco Emerson Maximiano and Emanuela Medrades testify in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2021

The changes to the income tax bill proposed by Deputy Celso Sabino were well received in Congress. The bill that deals with the spending ceiling for public servants’ salaries returns to the Senate after being edited in the House. The Senate may vote on the bill that reinstates free TV and radio t...

​MPC: No surprises, unsurprisingly
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jul 2021

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 19%, as expected. There is no material change in the new statement, as regards the key paragraphs on inflation and monetary policy outlook.

​From US inflation to Philippine monetary policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Jul 2021

For months now, global markets have been fretting about rising US inflation with anxieties running higher following upside surprises in the headline rate and news after the Fed’s June policy meeting that its next interest rate increase may come in 2023, a year ahead of what was earlier signaled. ...

Nord Stream 2 will be completed in summer 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jul 2021

The head of Nord Stream 2 AG which is building the gas pipeline said that the project will finish in August 2021. The pipeline meets the licensing requirement. It should be functioning by the end of 2021.The pipeline is due to increase Russian gas supplies to Germany by 100%. Other Western Europe...

India to make 300 million doses of the Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jul 2021

On July 13 Moscow announced a deal with Serum Institute to make Sputnik V. The first doses will produced in September 2021. The Russian Direct Investment Fund is behind Sputnik V. Russia is delighted with the uptake of Sputnik V seeing it as a soft power victory. It is also a financial gain. Sell...

New land market, seesawing IMF relations and inflation-driven recovery
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Jul 2021

The launch, at long last, of a farmland market in Ukraine was probably the most remarkable event of the past month. The law was passed a year ago but has only now come into effect. Many political players have been trying to derail this reform, and Ukrainians were never certain that the market wou...

​Macroeconomic policy remains “defensive”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2021

The Russian Central bank reported that the country’s foreign debt reached $471.4 bn as of July 1. It was slightly up from $467.4 bn six months ago. Compared with July 1, 2020, foreign debt decreased as it accounted for $483.4 bn back then. Note that as of April 1, 2021, 26.6% of Russia’s foreign ...

Luiz Fux meets with Bolsonaro to diffuse tensions, Rodrigo Pacheco may announce his candidacy, and Bolsonaro appoints André Mendonça to the STF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2021

Tension between President Bolsonaro and the STF is building as the conflict over paper ballots continues. Senator Pacheco will likely lay low in the short term so as not to affect the legislative agenda. Deputy Celso Sabino may submit a preliminary report on Tax Reform today. Bolsonaro issued 14 ...