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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Costa Rica: Mid-term revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2021-2022
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the mid-term revision of the macroeconomic program for 2021-2022 on July 30th. Based on H1 indicators, with a better external outlook and improvement on vaccine process, the Bank concluded that economic activity will be higher than previous estimates in 202...

Court-ordered payments PEC and new Bolsa Família provisional measure may be submitted, the House approved the urgent status of the income tax bill and the TSE sent a criminal report against Bolsonaro to the STF due to Fake News
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2021

The House may vote on the privatization of the Correios. Bolsonaro’s allies and his son are trying to convince Arthur Lira to take the paper ballot bill directly to a vote in the plenary. A statement was published in the newspaper Estadão that guarantees the elections will be respected next year....

FX intervention tapering
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The BoI appears to have taken its foot off the intervention gas pedal. In July, only 0.5bn USD were purchased following 3.2bn in June and more than 25bn on 1H21. The shekel appreciated by 0.7% in July (against the basket), following a 1% appreciation in June. Pressure for appreciation has continu...

Sber investing heavily in digital ecosystem
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

Sber is investing USD billion in its digital ecosystem in Q1 and Q3 2021. Sber wants to be the main actor in Russia's tech space. The investment is 11.5% of Sber's profits. It was previously called Sberbank. Profits were USD 8.3 billion in Q1 and Q2 2021.Sber has invested heavily in its ecosystem...

Covid update: the infection curve remains low and flat for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The return of Covid in a 4th wave with the Delta variant within a few weeks has been identified as a very likely, or more accurately as an unavoidable, event both by government speakers and by independent experts. Essentially all of the foregoing expect the 4th wave to kick in around late Septemb...

Dep. Celso Sabino submitted a new report on the income tax bill, Minister Braga Netto will be summoned by a Committee in the House, and Lieutenant Colonel of the Reserve Marcelo Blanco da Costa testifies in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2021

Despite the changes to the text, state treasury secretaries still do not support the income tax bill. Arthur Lira stated that he will find a solution to the court-ordered payments issue with Luiz Fux and may be able to vote on Administrative Reform by the end of the year. The Senate may vote on t...

Russian Central Bank selling Otkritie Bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2021

On August 3 the regulator said that it aimed to sell Otrkitie Bank before the end of 2021. The Russian Central Bank (CBR) said that it is seeking a strategic investor to buy the bank. CBR wants to do due diligence and to prepare bidders to take over Otkritie Bank which is one of the major lenders...

​Wildfire Losses: Anecdotal Evidence
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Aug 2021

Turkey has witnessed an inordinate number of wildfires over the last two weeks, which caught the nation and the administration by surprise.To date, more than 161 forest fires had been reported in 16 different provinces. Wildfires are still raging in 5 cities in the South of turkey, but only one o...

OFZ: moving to an inverted curve
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2021

Long-term OFZs demonstrated a strong performance in the second half of July, their yields compressing by 30-35 bps. Many investors suppose that the tightening phase of the CBR’s monetary policy is almost over and that interest rates in Russia will move down in the longer term. The potential decre...

The TSE asked the STF to include President Bolsonaro in its investigation into “Fake News”, the draft proposal for the new Bolsa Família program is being discussed, and Reverend Amilton Gomes de Paula testifies in the CPI today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2021

The TSE’s decision has the possibility of resulting in Bolsonaro’s impeachment or ineligibility in the upcoming elections. Minister João Roma has said that the new social program will comply with the spending ceiling. Both the House and the Senate have a busy agenda this week. The House should vo...

Inflation at 19%, now what? Well, nothing
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2021 · 1 response

Monthly CPI inflation came in at 1.8% in July, somewhat higher than the market consensus (of around 1.6%), with the 12-month rate thus rising to 19% (18.95%, to be precise) from 17.5% in June. Producer prices rose by 2.5% in the month, m/m, which led to a further increase in the 12-month rate to ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2021

The greater supply of doses has allowed acceleration of the vaccination campaign, increasing the number of persons receiving the first dose to 105 million, or 49.8% of the population, while 19.7% are fully immunized. The number of deaths has been steadily declining: the 7-day moving average of da...

First woman to become PM of Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2021

On July 31 Natalia Gavrilita was nominated to be Prime Minister of Moldova. She is due to be sworn in on August 5. She was nominated by President Sandu, who is the first woman to serve as president. Gavrilita is a member of the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which won the election in July ...

El Salvador was downgraded by Moody’s
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Aug 2021

The rating agency Moody’s downgraded El Salvador’s bonds from Ba3 to Caa1 on July 30th, 2021, turning the country’s debt into the category of “junk bonds”. At the same time, the outlook was rated “negative”. The same grade was also granted by Moody’s in April 2017, when the government failed to p...

Politics: The government can’t seem to get a grip on reality
MEXICO · Report · 02 Aug 2021

The new Chamber of Deputies elected on June 6 will not convene for another month nor have most of the 15 governors-elect been sworn into office. Yet, ever since the results of that vote were announced President López Obrador has maintained a strikingly electoral focus. Although his Morena party c...

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