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The 4th month of the war: working hard on degrading Russian military ability
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

 Russians intensified missile attacks over the recent days. Near 40-50 missile strikes reported yesterday and 12 missiles attacks today in the morning. At least four hit the central area of Kyiv city with apartment blocks seriously damaged. More missile strikes – is a clear sign that something go...

Russia sending nukes to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

On June 25 announced that he will deploy missiles in Belarus that can carry nuclear missiles. He said this while meeting Lukashenko. The missiles will be Iskander M tactical missile systems. These can use ballistic or nuclear missiles. The missiles will be sent in the next few months. The deploym...

Zondo Commission's final report offers predictable but painful verdict on the ANC and its leadership
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Nearly four years of unprecedented and rare public judicial inquiry into the ANC's governance of the country came to an end this week. At long last, and after two postponements, Chief Justice Zondo submitted the final segment of his nearly 5500 pages of investigations into what is now referred to...

Russian macro: Russia is detached
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2022

The Russian ruble has demonstrated a trajectory of extraordinary shape in recent months. With this in mind, a few questions arise, and one of them is about the long-term implications that the ruble’s very unusual trajectory might cause for the Russian economy. Some other factors that accompanied ...

Democracy in agony
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022

After 12 days of riots and violence under the makeup of an indigenous protest over the cost of living and other economic and security problems in Ecuador, the suspected truth emerges. UNES, led by former President Correa, has initiated the petition for cross death and the destitution of President...

EBRD lends Moldova USD 316 million for gas reserves
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022

On June 24 the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development made the announcement. Moldova is vulnerable to having gas supplies from Russia cut off. It is almost totally reliant on Russian gas. Moldova is the poorest country in Europe after Ukraine.  The loan will cover 20% of Moldova's gas i...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE bond, MBS visits Turkey, Bahrain’s Q1 GDP, Kuwait plans new elections
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The EU foreign policy chief is visiting Iran to try and revive the nuclear talks. * The UK and GCC have launched negotiations on a free trade agreement. * The IMF completed an Article IV mission to Saudi Arabia with a pos...

Webinar Replay: Colombia - After the elections
COLOMBIA · Report · 24 Jun 2022

Get insight into the results of Colombia's presidential elections and what to expect from the Gustavo Petro administration. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing the election results and their ramifications on Col...

Former President Lula continues in the lead, the Petrobras Eligibility Committee is expected to review the presidential appointment today, and a CPI request should be submitted to investigate alleged corruption in the Education Ministry
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2022

According to the latest poll, former President Lula is in the lead with 47% of intended votes, and President Jair Bolsonaro has 28%. The distance between the two, therefore, is 19%. So far, no new polls on the presidential election have been registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Tod...

Recovering from Omicron
CHINA · Report · 24 Jun 2022

The pandemic situation in China came gradually under control in May, particularly in Shanghai. This has greatly helped economic recovery. Industrial output grew 0.7% y/y in May, up 3.6 pps from April. Manufacturing rose 0.1% y/y, up 4.7 pps from April, and has been the major force lifting aggrega...

Ukraine withdrawing from Severodonetsk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022

On June 24 Kyiv announced that its soldiers shall pull out of Severodonetsk. The casualties from Russian bombardment are just too heavy. The city has been under assault for 5 weeks. When the Ukrainian retreat is complete the Russians will still have trouble advancing. The Russians still need to c...

EU grants Moldova and Ukraine candidate status
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

On June 23 the European Union made the announcement. The two former Soviet states are elated. However, candidate status is a long way from EU membership. It could easily take 10 years for them to be admitted into the EU. And it might never happen. The EU stated that the countries have significant...

Russia wants to enhance BRICS' relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

On June 22 Putin said that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa should draw closer. He was addressing a BRICS business forum by videolink.  Russia needs to deepen its relations with the other BRICS nations because Russia's relations with EU, NATO and other pro-Western nations are so poor...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

June 10 EBRD: Kazakhstan's Baiterek is discussing the purchase of the Russian Sberbank subsidiary in the country, the EBRD is ready to provide financing Alstom: The French company Alstom plans to invest more than EUR 50 mln in new projects in Kazakhstan June 13 Ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev: ...

Testing the new governor?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

We had barely made an end-year P55/$ call late last week[1] when the exchange rate shot past P54/$ early this week and closed at P54.7/$ in today's trading. From where we sit, it looks like the selldown of the peso is the market’s way of welcoming the incoming BSP governor, Felipe Medalla, after ...

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