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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Russian current account strengthens in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

The CBR released its preliminary estimate of the main elements of the 7M21 current account surplus, which appeared very strong. The current account surplus reached $51.7 bn in 7M21 and increased by $8.6 bn in July as according to the 1H21 balance of payments statistics, it was $43.1 bn during tha...

The government should submit the court-ordered payments PEC to Congress this week, the paper ballot PEC should be put to a vote today and the TSE submitted a criminal report against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2021

Bolsonaro submitted the new Bolsa Família provisional measure to Congress yesterday. The text did not provide for a new rate, but he has said that it will be at least 50% higher than the current rate. Arthur Lira has said that he may postpone the voting of the paper ballot PEC due to the Navy’s p...

Russian and China in joint military drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

On August 9 the two countries commenced joint exercises. The Russian Defense Ministry told them that they were doing this because of rising tensions with the USA. Over 10 000 troops are participating in Zapad Interaction 2021. This 5 day drill is being held in the Ningxia Hui Region of China. Rus...

July CPI-inflation came out slightly below expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

The headline rate was 0.5% mom, 4.6% yoy, just slightly below the 4.7% yoy median of analyst forecasts (Portfolio.hu survey) and more significantly below our own 4.9% yoy forecast. The better than expected performance came from non-fuel items, where the monthly price increase fell to 3.8% yoy fro...

Campaign season spending propels inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Aug 2021

In July, the rate of inflation doubled to 18 percent from its June 9 percent. We had forecast only 11 percent, having failed to give due weight to the PSUV primary elections. Campaigning sparked increases in public expenditure, which in turn boosted the demand for dollars. The central bank reacte...

2Q GDP slips sequentially due to lockdown
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

Government reported today that 2Q GDP shrank 1.3% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter (qoq) basis. The losses reflect tighter restrictions to activity that were imposed starting late March following an unexpected outbreak in covid-19 infections and were only gradually relaxed over May and...

Israeli institutions continue to sell FX
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

Israeli institutions continue to sell FX In June, Israeli savings institutions (managing over 450bn USD) were net sellers of FX of 3.9bn USD and 16bn YTD. In June, institutions sold assets abroad of 1.1bn and increased their FX hedge position by 2.8bn. Higher equity market valuations abroad have ...

Economics: Pemex results deliver mixed figures but bad news in general
MEXICO · Report · 09 Aug 2021

Pemex’s financial results for the second quarter of 2021 partially benefited from a very low comparison base given that the first wave of Covid 19 infections during the second quarter of 2020 seriously affected demand and prices for hydrocarbon value-chain products, and this came together with Me...

Proposal for the privatization of the Correios and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021

The government may submit the court-ordered payments Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) and the Bolsa Família provisional measure to Congress. The House will try to vote on the income tax bill and the leaders should discuss the paper ballot PEC. The New Refis will be analyzed in the House. T...

Inflation and Fiscal Risk at Center Stage
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021

Since (belatedly) starting the monetary tightening cycle, the Central Bank has been revealing greater concern over economic recovery than growth of inflation. Even with the steady increase of the diffusion index and all the core rates, after three increases of 75 basis points the SELIC rate was s...

Turkey Covid Watch - August 9, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 09 Aug 2021

After several weeks of rapid increase, case growth seems to be slowing, giving rise to hope that the virus is facing immunity within the population against the prevailing variant. The latter may not yet be the Delta variant, however, as the absence of data is hampering rigorous analysis. Inequali...

Banks to benefit from decelerating inflation amid rising interest rates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021

According to Rosstat, m-o-m inflation reached in July 0.31%, which was a bit lower than in July 2020 (0.35%). Inflation y-o-y moved to 6.46% in July, which is a bit lower than a month ago. A few days earlier, Rosstat published its flash estimate of the consumer price change for seven days ending ...

A busy week in Congress: the bill on income tax, electoral reform and the paper ballot system may be put to a vote this week, and Dep. Ricardo Barros testifies in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021

The paper ballot PEC may be taken to the plenary for a vote if there is an agreement between leaders. The Senate receives the bill that allows for the privatization of the Correios following its approval in the House. The government may submit to Congress the PEC on the court-ordered payments iss...

Politics: Low turnout for popular consultation, a setback for AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 09 Aug 2021

Mexico’s first experience with an officially held popular consultation was marked by very low voter turnout on August 1. Promoted by President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and Morena, the question that was initially to be put to voters was whether the past six presidents should be investigated and...

South Africa’s economy amid unrest, Cabinet changes and a mining sector boom
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 09 Aug 2021

South Africa’s growth: South Africa’s economy, which is once again being adversely impacted by another round of more stringent lockdowns on account of the third wave of Covid-19 infections, encountered another setback in July. This was in the form of the civil unrest that took place at the beginn...

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