Country Insights

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April CPI tops at 7.3% y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 06 May 2014
Russian inflation continues to rise despite weak economy. April CPI came at 7.3% y-o-y (+0.9% m-o-m) compared to 6.9% (+1.0% m-o-m) in March. Most contribution came from food prices: 9.0% y-o-y (+1.3% m-o-m) in April. Core CPI y-o-y increased to 6.5% y-o-y in April compared to 6.0% in March. Infl...

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An Acute Case of Foot-in-Mouth Disease
PERU - Report 06 May 2014
Executive SummaryThe murder of a rival of Ancash’s regional president pushed worries over political delinquency in the provinces on to the front pages. The scandal forced the agencies overseeing October’s municipal and regional elections to warn that the spread of criminality in politics was the ...

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Political Environment Tightens
MEXICO - Report 06 May 2014
Executive Summary Last week’s one-and-only debate between the two men competing for the chairmanship of the National Action Party confirmed the general impression that little, other than personal animosities and clique allegiances, separates either contender, as no evidence emerged of any clear i...

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Promising Signals
MEXICO - Report 06 May 2014
Executive Summary Recent economic news has pointed toward the possibility that the Mexican economy enjoyed a slight recovery during the second and third months of 2014, especially the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for February, which appeared to herald stronger economic conditions going forward. Manuf...

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Juan Carlos Varela Posts Unexpected Win
PANAMA - Report 06 May 2014
Juan Carlos Varela, the leader of the rightist Panameñista Party in coalition with Partido Popular (former Christian Democrats) won the presidential election with 39.2% of the votes. José Domingo Arias of the ruling Party Cambio Democrático (CD) got 32% and Juan Carlos Navarro of the PRD received...

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The Reduction in the Growth of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 May 2014
The reduced growth pace of real retail sales is not only due to the slower expansion of employment, causing deceleration of real payroll growth. Another factor is the reduced expansion of credit to individuals. The effects are most visible in car sales, which are very sensitive to bank lending po...

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Core Nears Double the Target Rate
TURKEY - Report 05 May 2014
CPI inflation was a higher than expected 1.3% in April (consensus: 0.9%), which took the 12-month rate a full percentage point higher, to 9.4%. Food was a big contributor, with monthly food inflation (including beverages) swinging from a negative 1.3% in April 2013 to an increase of 1.4% in April...

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Political Insights: Week of May 5
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 05 May 2014
The creation of the Petrobras CPI will once again be one of the main topics for the week as party leaders may decide whether the Committee will be made up of senators or whether it will be a Joint CPI, with federal representatives.This weekend a new Datafolha poll on the presidential race will be...

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Revving Up
PANAMA - Forecast 05 May 2014
Executive Summary Though growth is slowing from its powerful 2012 peak of 10.8%, we are optimistic for 2014-2016, and project GDP GAGR at 6.3% (on the heels of 8.4% growth in 2013). The main reason for the slowdown is a fall in exports, and in fixed capital formation, as massive public investment...

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Fight for Odesa: Putin’s ‘Stalingrad defeat’?
UKRAINE - In Brief 03 May 2014
The events which happened yesterday in Odesa could be hardly overestimated. Moscow has made an attempt to capture Odesa and create one more point of tension in Ukraine. The plan failed disregard silent support of local police and secret service – people managed to defend themselves from Russian t...

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IMF Approves 2-Year $17.01 billion Stand-By Arrangement for Ukraine
UKRAINE - In Brief 01 May 2014
The IMF Executive Board approves 2-year $17.01 billion stand-by arrangement for Ukraine. The first wire ($3.19 billion) will arrive on Monday. About $2 billion from the first wire will be allocated to the budget support. The next two wires will be subject to bi-monthly performance reviews. Accord...

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Dominican Rep allocates USD 1.25 bn in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 30 Apr 2014
On 24 April, the Dominican government announced the allocation of USD 1.25 bn in Sovereign Bonds of 30 years term at a yield of 7.45%. This rate is below the yield in the secondary market of all 30-year Sovereign Bonds of countries rated B in the date of the issuing. The demand for the bonds reac...

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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Apr 2014
CNT/MDA: New poll reveals declining popularity and intended votes for Dilma Rousseff On Tuesday (29), CNT/MDA released a new poll, conducted on April 20-25, on evaluations of the Dilma administration and the presidential race.The poll on the government demonstrated the same trend recently present...

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Better Than Nothing
VENEZUELA - Report 30 Apr 2014
Executive Summary The government and opposition moderates have sat down to negotiate an end to the street protests and violence. The process is fragile and may be abandoned at any moment. The opposition is divided—radicals don’t want to back down and wait till 2018 to unseat Maduro. The governmen...

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More Weakness Ahead
MEXICO - Report 30 Apr 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic news in Mexico has been largely disappointing this year, and the indicators published in April were no exception. But not all the news was dire. February produced the second consecutive increase in industrial production; construction activity continues to produce signs ...