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President Lula meets with ministers to discuss the minimum wage, Minister Haddad to have meetings during the World Economic Forum in Davos, and Minister Silveira meets with representatives of the energy sector to discuss attacks on transmission towers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

After the meeting with ministers, President Lula will have a meeting with the president of the Single Center of the Workers (CUT). The agenda should focus on the minimum wage. During the electoral campaign, Lula promised to implement a policy of increasing the minimum wage according to the intere...

The First Package: “Much Ado About Nothing”.
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Last week, measures were announced aiming to reduce the primary deficit in 2023 (summarized in Table 1). The largest part of the adjustment falls on the revenue side, based on revenues’ reestimation and increase, along with some temporary spending cuts. However, given the nature of Brazil’s fisca...

Economics: Internal demand, external conditions foreshadow a weaker economy in 2023
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jan 2023

When it turned out late last year that Mexico’s GDP had accelerated in the third quarter of 2022 more than expected by either market analysts or government authorities, it prompted analysts, including those of us at GEA, to announce upward revisions to 2022 year-end GDP estimates. As we begin th...

Sharp slowdown and inflation rebound greet a gloomy and uncertain 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Jan 2023

November 2022 confirmed the trend of a sharp slowdown in economic activity that began in September, while December brought the surprise of a strong rebound in monthly inflation. The y/y rise of the Monthly Economic Activity Index in November 2022 was 2.9%, with an average monthly fall of 0.95 ppt...

Lula capitalizes on the attacks and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, participates in the Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Jean Paul Prates may take charge of Petrobras. The Minister of Transportation, Renan Filho, announces a plan of action for the first 100 days of government that involves the resumption of all paral...

Signs of inflation moderation, except for rental prices
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jan 2023

1. Inflation in December surprised slightly on the downside (up 0.3% m/m and 5.3% y/y), with core inflation softening to 5% from 5.3%. 2. Except for rental prices, which continue to accelerate, non-housing service prices and goods are decelerating. 3. Due to recent government measures to re...

Kazakhstan’s economy grew steadily in December prompting a good start for 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2023

The country’s economy was on the rise at the very end of 2022 as the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes six sectors that cover over 60% of the national economy) grew by 3.5% in 2022. In December alone, it grew e...

Signs of inflation moderation, except for rental prices
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2023

December’s CPI surprised slightly on the downside Inflation in December reached 0.3% (below expectations for 0.4%) and 5.3% y/y (similar to rate last month). Core inflation moderated to 5.0% y/y from 5.3%. Housing rental prices (OER) accelerated to 6.3% y/y from 5.9% while other service prices mo...

UK to supply Ukraine with tanks for the first time
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2023

On January 14 the British Prime Minister made the announcement about Challenger 2 tanks. The rumor in the media is that 12 tanks will be sent. The UK is retiring 79 Challenger 2 tanks over the next few years. So it is possible that more such tanks will be sent. France recently Infantry Fighting V...

Turbulent politics, fuzzy economics
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Turkey’s order for new F-16 jet fighters and upgrade kits are in jeopardy, as Senator Bob Menendez threatens to block them. Assad laid out two conditions for peace with Ankara, to which Erdogan shall not be able to oblige. This deprives him of a minor propaganda asset. Erdogan and Bahceli have...

Russian newspaper says Putin will seek re-election in 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2023

On January 13 Kommersant newspaper published an article saying that Putin's campaign is being prepared for March 2024. Kommersant cited anonymous sources. The newspaper claimed that Putin has already been discussing his campaign with his aides. There had been some speculation that if Russia won t...

Inflation steadily moderates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023

Rosstat reported that inflation in December reached 0.78% m-o-m, which is quite a low level given that the authorities moved the indexation of regulated tariffs from the summer months to December. Fruit and vegetable prices were the main drivers of the CPI in December. Inflation in 2022 as a whol...

National Fund remains a comfortable cushion for the budget
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that The National Fund grew to KZT28.6 trillion as of January 1, 2023 (from KZT28.0 trillion as of January 1, 2022) but contracted in dollar terms (to $62.1 bn as of January 1, 2023, from around $64.4 bn as of a year ago). This contraction (by $2.3 bn) re...

GULF WEEKLY: $10bn Saudi bond, Kuwait political turmoil, Shell invests in Omani hydrogen, Gulf bailout for Egypt and Pakistan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE pledged a $1bn loan to Pakistan and extended an existing $2bn. * Saudi Arabia added $1bn in oil financing and is considering an extra $2bn loan and an extra $9bn investment. * Gulf states are expected to roll ove...

The Minister of Finance announced economic and fiscal measures for the year, the PF found a draft decree in Anderson Torres’s home suggesting a planned coup d’etat, and the government is considering increasing the minimum wage above the rate of inflation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2023

Minister Fernando Haddad disclosed what would be the main measures of the new government to avoid the R$ 231.5 billion shortfall foreseen in the approved budget for 2023. He expects the deficit to come in somewhere between R$ 90 billion and R$ $100 billion. A large part of the plan's measures wil...

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