Country Insights

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Political Insights: Week of December 2
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 02 Dec 2013
A full economic agenda this week:On Tuesday, IBGE releases revised GDP results for 2012 and economic performance figures for Q3. On Thursday, the Central Bank releases the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. On Friday, IBGE releases November’s IPCA. In the House o...

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What Can Be Expected From Fiscal Policy?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Dec 2013
Participants in the financial market have long known that at the moment the rating agencies change a country’s risk rating, the risk premiums remain virtually unchanged. Therefore, from the standpoint of their reflection on asset prices, changes in countries’ ratings are “non-events”. The reason ...

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Glimmers of Recovery
INDIA - Forecast 02 Dec 2013
Executive SummaryWe see signs of recovery after the downturn that started in 2010. Q3 data signaled improvements in output, investment and business confidence. Conditions may improve further in Q4, as the damage to Q3 growth caused by defense of the rupee recedes, and as the expansionary impact o...

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Boring Race, Known Outcome
COLOMBIA - Report 02 Dec 2013
Executive Summary The most important new political development is, of course, the news that President Juan Manuel Santos will run for president in 2014. The organizational apparatus is already in place, with Germán Vargas-Lleras and Juan Mesa in Fundación Buen Gobierno; Roberto Prieto returning f...

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Surprise Tightening
INDONESIA - Report 02 Dec 2013
Executive Summary As many predicted, GDP growth softened further in Q3, confirming the recent declining trend. Growth was 5.62%, and 5.83% for first nine months of the year. But the balance of payments improved mildly, with the current account deficit shrinking to 3.8% of GDP from 4.4%. Still, t...

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On the Brink of Civil Confrontation
UKRAINE - In Brief 02 Dec 2013
The events of last weekend shocked everyone.  On the morning of November 30 riot police attacked protesters at Maidan Square and brutally beaten the people, who were guarding the camp.  Shocking videos and photos flooded media and social nets.  It appeared that for this action the authorities bro...

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A Long, Cold Winter?
TURKEY - Report 01 Dec 2013
According to recent polls, AKP is firmly ahead in the March local election races. We bet it will keep Istanbul and Ankara, as well as most of the large cities. Yet, for PM Erdogan’s presidential campaign, the party needs to surpass 50%, which is likely to be missed.The unexpected declaration of w...

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Are We at Customs Union?
UKRAINE - In Brief 29 Nov 2013
Unfortunately, results of Vilnius Summit did not surprise with positive results.  As we discussed, Victor Yanukovitch decided not to decide at this time.  The general opinion is that Moscow stands behind of such decision.  We do not want to refute this statement – pressure from Moscow and possibi...

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Honduras: Rough Road Ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 28 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Honduran President-elect Juan Orlando Hernández will have to navigate a rough road, after a polarizing campaign that divided the country. Hernández will face major challenges, including political fragmentation, a likely divided Congress, security risks, muted economic growth and...

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Credit: Effects of the Bank Strike and Some Moderation by Public Banks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Nov 2013
The total stock of credit as a percentage of GDP remained virtually unchanged in October, at 55.4%, versus 55.5% in September. The growth of credit in real terms continued to decelerate, reaching 8.3% in the 12 months through October (Graph 1). In September and October, this deceleration may have...

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Trimming Growth Forecasts
PHILIPPINES - Report 28 Nov 2013
GDP growth reached 7% in 3Q13, its fifth straight quarter in the seven-and-above level.While clearly decelerating as expected from the 1H13 growth pace, it remains one of the highest in the region, surpassing growth in other Southeast Asian economies. Looking at demand-side components, the patter...

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New Glimmers of Accountability
MEXICO - Report 27 Nov 2013
Executive Summary When the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reclaimed the presidential mansion of Los Pinos after a 12-year absence following last year’s election of President Enrique Peña Nieto, there were widespread concerns we might witness a return to the opacity, corruption and lack o...

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Quarterly Report, October 2013
INDIA - Forecast 27 Nov 2013
Output Growth Slips Further Figure: GDP growth Source: National Accounts Statistics and authors’ calculations GDP growth in India slowed to 4.4% in April-June 2013. The slowdown is more pronounced if we exclude agriculture and government expenditure. GDP excluding agriculture and government captu...

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2014 Budget: More of the Same
MEXICO - Report 27 Nov 2013
Executive Summary The Chamber of Deputies approved a final expenditure law for 2014 that contained few surprises or major changes from the original draft of the spending bill proposed by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto. The scant changes that were introduced were largely design...

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Fumbling the Euro-Bluff
UKRAINE - Report 26 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Just a few days after the anniversary of the Orange Revolution, on November 24th thousands of Ukrainians took the streets to protest the delay of the EU Association agreement.After long preparation for the Vilnius Summit, and widely-promoted Euro-integration prospects, the Cabin...