GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The announced decision of G7 group to introduce price cap for Russian oil as well as further initiative from EU to do the same in relation to Russian pipeline gas had no impact on FX market yet. The oil price that fell in the past two weeks also didn't affect the ruble so far. The Russian currenc...

Ukraine advances east of Kharkiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2022

The Russian Army is having difficulty as the Ukrainians have gradually moved forward from the eastern city. Ukraine claims to have moved forward 50 km which is unlikely. Ukraine has definitely retaken a few villages. Kharkiv is Ukraine's second largest city. Kharkiv had been largely ignored for w...

Yesterday’s demonstrations in support of the government were significant, the opposition will file a lawsuit against Bolsonaro for his actions during the events, and the latest poll shows a 6-point difference between Lula and Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2022

During his speech in Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro spoke about the Auxílio Brasil program, corruption, and his criticisms of the Supreme Federal Court (STF). When asked by the press, ministers of the Supreme Federal Court called Bolsonaro's speeches "measured". Senator Randolfe Rodrigues said that he...

Hungary has two CPI-inflation numbers for August

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2022

The release of the monthly consumer inflation data is rarely more interesting than now, given the structured increases of administratively controlled retail prices of fuel, electricity and pipeline gas, all in force since the start of August. For a base figure, headline CPI-inflation was 13.7% yo...

Politics: AMLO’s fourth annual report to Congress anticipates a complex political endgame

MEXICO · Report · 06 Sep 2022

President López Obrador used this year’s annual report to Congress to tout his signature social programs and public works. His fourth and penultimate annual narrative of his own administration once again focused on drawing distinctions between his government and those of his predecessors of recen...

The latest polling trends and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

There are high expectations regarding the demonstrations on September 7 for the 200th anniversary of the Independence of Brazil. Several presidential polls will be published. On Friday, September 9, the IBGE announces the inflation rate for August. This week’s Talking Points: * The lat...

What a mess...

TURKEY · Report · 04 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

The process of unraveling in AKP picked up a notch, as ex-gladio and fugitive mafia leader Sedat Peker returned to the social media limelight with ground-breaking bribery revelations. Why the UAE permitted him to tweet again is a question with important political implications, which we cover in t...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s fiscal deficit eased in 2021, Bahrain’s record Q2 current surplus, violence in Iraq & Libya threatens oil output

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped on recession fears, despite potential production concerns, and an OPEC+ cut is not expected. * OPEC+ sharply revised its forecasts and now sees a 300k b/d supply deficit in 2023, particularly in Q4. * There were...

Playing LEGO with Colombian security

COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A la Obama or Trump, Gustavo Petro initiated his presidency with apparent use of executive orders. They don’t even need to be written down -- just uttered into the presidential microphone, in any meeting, before any small population, at any time of day. In most instances, the new approach comes t...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2022

CIS POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2022

* The Ukraine War continues, with neither side making much progress and bombardments decreasing. * Western military and financial aid to Ukraine is lessening. * Russia has reduced energy sales to the EU and increased them to China. * The Black Sea Grain Initiative is working smoothly, allo...

Inflation continues to creep higher

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Aug 2022

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for GDP in Q2 2022, growing by 5.44% Y/Y, significantly above the 5.01% achieved in the previous quarter. In fact, the rate of growth also exceeded the consensus, which expected the rate of growth to be at most 5.20% for the quarter. Compare...

China's tech crackdown - an excerpt from my new book, "China's Technology War: Why Beijing Took Down Its Tech Giants"

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2022

When Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba, gave a speech on October 24, 2020 to the country’s political and financial elite, he set in motion a crackdown on China’s flourishing technology sector that will have long consequences on China’s economic growth. In my n...

Economics: What the troubled Sofomes say about the state of the Mexican financial system

MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2022

This past August 8 an important Sofom (one of the Multiple Purpose Financial Companies or Sociedades Financieras de Objeto Múltiple) announced it was suspending payments to its creditors given “the complicated environment facing the non bank financial institution sector.” Given that this company ...

Chile's Constitutional Referendum: The Countdown Begins

CHILE · In Brief · 29 Aug 2022 · 1 response

With just under a week to go to Chile’s constitutional referendum, the political process which began on 18 October, 2019 is about to reach its zenith. Polls continue to show that a plurality of Chileans will reject the draft constitution on 4 September, although as other important votes elsewhere...

Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices to support revenue flow for the rest of the year

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Aug 2022

On August 27, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Zhamaubaev presented a draft law on the Republican budget for 2023-2025. Mr. Zhamaubaev mentioned that republican budget revenues are expected at KZT 17.8 trln next year while expenditures should reach KZT 21.0 trln. Hence the deficit is expected t...