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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Making sense of GCC economic data and navigating the GCC Databank
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 May 2022
This report provides an overview of the economic data that is available for the Gulf states, some technical discussion of the quirks in regional data (with examples) and an introduction to navigating our GCC Databank (follow the sidebar link to download the latest version). Although this is quite...
Rate hike of 0.4% today, above market expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 May 2022
Rate hike of 0.4% today, above market expectations The Bank of Israel raised policy rates today by 0.4% to 0.75%, above market expectations for a 0.25% hike. We were initially leaning towards a 40% hike, but following the somewhat lower-than-expected GDP print of -1.6% for Q122, we gave this opti...
The House to discuss the bill to impose a 17% ceiling on the ICMS tax, a special committee will be installed to analyze tax reform, and leadership of third-way parties to discuss appointing Sen. Simone Tebet as their presidential candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2022
The bill in the House establishes a 17% ceiling for the ICMS tax on energy, telecommunications and transportation. The urgent status of the bill was approved last week. The National Committee of State Secretaries of Finance (Comsefaz) estimates that, if approved, the PLP could generate an impact ...
We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 23 May 2022
1. We expect a 0.25% rate hike today on the back of accelerating inflation and fairly robust growth. 2. The GDP contraction in Q122 was a technical correction following growth of 15.6% in Q421. 3. The shekel has appreciated recently, despite further market volatility.
Desperately bloody fights for Luhansk region
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 May 2022
Over the last two weeks we observed the most desperate fights in Luhansk region (North part of Donbas). Russian leadership apparently disappointed with 'no result' by May 9th amid failed ‘big battle for Donbas’ decided to get at least something in this war. They defined, as we already see, occupa...
We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2022
Economic conditions support a 0.25% hike Inflation has accelerated to 4.0% y/y with core at 3.4%, above target. Inflation is more broad-based, including both goods and services. Economic indicators point to fairly robust growth and near-full unemployment. The negative GDP print is a correction fo...
More of the same
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2022 · 2 responses
We’ve titled last week’s Sunday Weekly “Seething Politics, Shaky Currency”. Today’s title refers to that, because we have more of the same indeed: The political scene remains very tense, while Ankara seems to be having a hard time containing TL’s weakness, which, incidentally, prompted our Cosmic...
Former German Chancellor resigns from board of Rosneft
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2022
On May 20 Gerhard Schroeder resigned from the board of the Russian state oil major. He had been under severe pressure from Germany to do so. On May 18 the EU Parliament threatened sanctions against him if he did not resign. He was said to have a close relationship with Putin. Schroeder has state-...
Talk about a neutral sea corridor for Ukrainian food exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2022
Ukraine is a major exporter of grain, wheat, fertilizer and cooking oil. The UN warned that 400 million people mostly in Africa face malnutrition because Ukrainian food exports have almost halted. Ukraine ships out most of its food through the Black Sea. There is not the road and rail capacity to...
Putin wants to be rid of foreign tech as Russia's war slows.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2022
On May 20 Putin said that Russia needs technological sovereignty. Russian missiles usually use Western electronics. Civilian vehicles often rely on Western components. The lack of Western components is going to prove a significant headache for Russian military and civilian manufacturing. Russia c...
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and US delegations visit UAE, Oman considers gas pipeline IPO, Hezbollah loses majority
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 May 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent touched $115 as Russian oil output fell -by 9% in April but is displacing Iranian exports to China. * The EU launched a strategic plan for engaging with the GCC. * Saudi Arabia achieved a 6% of GDP fiscal surplus in ...
The quality of Chinese growth is deteriorating
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * This week’s data release by the National Bureau of Statistics was expected to be bad, but in fact was worse than expected. For me the most worrying number is the 8.2 percentage-point gap between April’s year-on-year decline in retail sales and the ...
Webinar Replay: Is India on track for a robust recovery?
INDIA · Report · 20 May 2022
Get insight into India's macro outlook for 2022 and the potential for an economic recovery. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring economist Dr. Ajay Shah discussing India's recovery and the state of the Indian economy.
Guedes said that he would likely continue in the government if Bolsonaro is re-elected, the energy and fuel tariffs remain an issue, and the government publishes the income and expenditure report today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2022
This was the first time Paulo Guedes admitted to the possibility of staying in the government. President Jair Bolsonaro had already stated that the relationship between the two is still very good and that, if he would like, Guedes would continue in a possible second term. The president of the Hou...
Pandemic statistics update - May 20, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 May 2022
Xi Jinping’s lockdown policies are facing increasing opposition. Videos have been posted online about protests at Peking University, where the children of the elite attend university. The open confrontation, in both Beijing and Shanghai, is surprising but the harsh measures are clearly causing si...